2020 NHL Mock Draft picks 4-7

(This is the second in a three-part series mocking the first 10 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft.)

With the top-three picks in the 2020 NHL Draft set (unless something weird happens,) this is where things begin to get interesting. Generally speaking the next tier of prospects stretches down to about pick nine or 10 with an array of players offering up varying skill-sets but whom all grade out close to each other. There's even a blue-chip goalie in the mix who could go top-10. However, it's the opinion here that amongst that group of six or seven players, three rise to the top and create their own sub-group, like a 3a and 3b. I'm also of the opinion that the teams picking 4-6 will select them and although the exact order might not be right as laid out below, that group of three should go off the board well before the Buffalo Sabres pick at No. 8.

Speaking of Buffalo, should one of those three prospects drop to them, they wouldn't hesitate to select said player, even if it was a d-man. As the Sabres enter the 2020 NHL Draft, they'll be looking up at Atlantic Division rivals in the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings who are going to add some impressive prospects to their rebuilds. The NY Rangers will be adding the top player in the draft as well and with playoff spots in the eastern conference already hard to come by, in two to or three years (or sooner in the case of the Rangers) these picks placed atop an already strong prospect pool will make life even more difficult for the Sabres, a team that has a league-long, nine year playoff drought. 

Detroit and Ottawa will now be setting the tone followed by the Anaheim Ducks, who have a definitive need in their prospect pool, and the New Jersey Devils, a team that can go in many directions dependent upon what does or does not fall to them. And with that in mind the mock continues as we begin with the fourth-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft.

4. Detroit Red Wings--C. Marco Rossi

The Wings were a train wreck last season and they need to add a lot of talent so dropping down to fourth-overall after being a historically bad team was a travesty for Detroit. But that's how the lottery unfolded and at No. 4 they'll still have an opportunity to select an impact skater. Even though this is a dark time for the storied Wings, and getting shut out of the top-three was salt in the wound, general manager Steve Yzerman has another Brayden Point-type prospect staring him in the face. Although Yzerman won't be as lucky, or as smart, as he was in Tampa getting Point in the third round of the 2014 NHL Draft, Rossi represents a very similar player who has those offensive gifts and ultra-high compete-level. He had all of those traits on display last season in Canadian Junior as when he led the entire league in scoring with 120 points (39+81) in 56 games, besting Alexis Lafreniere's 112 points (52 games.) The 5'11" 179 lb. Rossi is just too good for junior and the Wings could ease him into the NHL on the wing or slot him in behind Dylan Larkin and let him lead an burgeoning youth movement for Detroit. It's going to be a struggle for that franchise near-term but Yzerman is slowly putting pieces in place and having an eventual one-two punch of Larkin/Rossi down the middle for the foreseeable future is extremely promising.

5. Ottawa Senators--D, Jamie Drysdale

Although the lottery didn't go their way, the Sens will walk away from the 2020 NHL Draft with an impressive forward prospect in Tim Stuetzle (or Quinton Byfield) and follow that up two spots later by plucking the best defenseman in the draft. Ottawa has a very strong prospect pipeline featuring plenty of forwards and some good d-prospects even after the recent 2017 graduation of Thomas Chabot and 21 yr. old Erik Branstrom, who should be with the Senators next season. And they'll add a defenseman in Drysdale who's in the mold of Cale Makar (2017, 4th-overall) and Quinn Hughes (2018,) two modern defensemen who electrify from the blueline. Once again, the Senators could go a couple different ways and they could almost call it a night after drafting one of the top forwards and the top defenseman this year, but Ottawa isn't done by any means as they can add to the pipeline with the 28th-overall pick and four second rounders beginning with pick-33.)

6. Anaheim Ducks--LW, Lucas Raymond

Once again, what teams do in front of you dictate what you will do and the Ducks take the best player available, which isn't such a bad thing here. Anaheim has needs on the blueline and Drysdale would have been an ideal pick but Ottawa threw a wrench into those plans. The Ducks could easily go defense here and no one could blame them for landing a defenseman like Jake Sanderson who some consider to be a better prospect than Drysdale, However, in sticking to the best player available plan, there's no reason to pass on drafting a stud left wing in Raymond. The Ducks have an aging duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Adam Henrique at center with Sam Steel and Trevor Zegras in line to take over when they're ready. At left wing they have Sonny Milano (24 yrs. old) and Jakob Silfverberg (29) and as Anaheim moves forward with their rebuild, adding Raymond makes their near and long-term future even brighter. The gifted Raymond has been playing in Sweden's top hockey league (SHL) as a teenager scoring 10 points in limited ice time while competing against men in his first full season last year. Along with his incredible hands and impressive hockey sense, the smaller (5'10" 183 lbs.) Raymond has an ultra-high compete-level which has already translated into a goal and an assist through two games of the 2020-21 SHL season, which is underway.

7. New Jersey Devils--D, Jake Sanderson

This isn't so much of a reach as it is a choice. There's been a huge swell of draftniks leaning towards New Jersey drafting highly touted goalie Iarsolav Askarov at this spot, and they have a good point. However, the Devils haven't drafted a goalie in the first round since 1999 (27th-overall) and have drafted a goalie every year since 2015 when they plucked Mackenzie Blackwood with the 42nd pick. In addition, back in 2013 the franchise traded the ninth-overall pick for a goalie in Corey Schneider whom they believed to be the heir to Martin Brodeur. Despite some strong numbers from Schneider his first three years, the team failed to move the needle as they missed the playoffs. The now 34 yr. old Schneider began to fade in 2017 (with Keith Kinkaid emerging as "the truth" that season) and has fallen to the point where he was waived last season and is now a $6 million goalie in the AHL with two more years left on his contract. The Devils could have gone with a forward here as well but landing a 6'2" 185 lb. defenseman who plays the position deftly and is an excellent skater as well as one who can move the puck out of his zone and also quarterback the powerplay, seems like a good move for a team that has quantity over quality in blueline depth. New Jersey has a strong group of young forwards beginning to make their mark already and some good defenseman but Sanderson would immediately be placed near the top of their prospect pool. Devils director of amateur scouting Paul Castron was hired by New Jersey in July, 2015 after spending 16 years in the Columbus Blue Jackets scouting department. Defenseman Zach Werenski was mocked anywhere from seventh to 12th overall in the 2015 NHL Draft and the Jackets plucked him with the eighth-overall pick ahead of some pretty good forward prospects. That worked out pretty well for Columbus.

2020 NHL Mock Draft picks 1-3

(This is the first in a three-part series mocking the first 10 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft.)

The annual NHL Draft on October 6? Really? That's usually about the time that every NHL team has completed their first game of the new season. Right?

Welcome to the world of Covid-19.

Kudos to the NHL for pulling off a finish to the regular season (the qualifying round) even if it really was an expanded playoffs as they had five-game series to determine which four teams in each conference would join the four best teams in the conference quarterfinals. Commissioner Gary Bettman and his staff really stepped up and delivered the best bubble experience one could hope for while the players on the ice played the games with typical Stanley Cup playoff intensity despite no fans in the stands.

No asterisk from this writer to whomever--Dallas or Tamp--hoists the Stanley Cup. It's the opinion here that the winner will have deserved the prize regardless of the circumstances the 2020 playoffs were played under.

The NHL even lucked out a bit with the Draft Lottery. All teams eliminated in the qualifying round had an equal chance (12.5%) in the second phase of the lottery which, because of how the first phase unfolded, offered one of those eight teams the opportunity to draft first overall. Bettman could have had an egg on his face if teams like Edmonton or Pittsburgh (both with the fifth best records in their conference) or Nashville (6th,) or Toronto (8th,) all of them playoff teams in a normal season, had lost their play-in but won the lottery. As it turns out, the NY Rangers, who along with the Chicago Blackhawks were the last teams to join the expanded field of 12 in each division, won the lottery so at least an actual non-playoff team will draft first overall.

As for the Buffalo Sabres, they missed out on the playoffs for a league-long ninth consecutive season and because the lottery balls didn't go their way, they dropped from the No. 7 slot down to No. 8. Sabres fans have had an extra long time (nearly seven months) to mull over draft possibilities, including various trade scenarios and it would be safe to say that they're ready for the draft to commence so they can start throwing haymakers on social media attacking whatever Buffalo's management does. 

So far new Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams has made one trade which looks very promising as he acquired center Eric Staal from the Minnesota Wild for forward Marcus Johansson. However, this draft may become interesting as owners Terry and Kim Pegula shredded the Sabres management, scouting and development staffs to the tune of 22 hockey department employees being lopped off of the payroll in one fell swoop. The general consensus is that Covid-19 decimated the bottom line of their umbrella company, Pegula Sports and Entertainment, which includes their hockey team. Moving forward, question marks concerning the 2020-21 NHL season as well as the American Hockey League season remain and in a box office-driven industry, no fans in the seats mean a severe loss of revenue. An argument can also be made that the scouting staffs that have been on board through three different GM's haven't been as productive as one would have liked so a house cleaning may have been in order anyway.

Ten days from now Buffalo will jump on their socially distanced zoom call for Round-1 of the 2020 NHL Draft. So onward we go with a mock draft in what has become the strangest hockey year that has ever been seen.

1. NY Rangers--LW, Alexis Lafreniere

At least a playoff team didn't win the #1 overall pick this year and the NY Rangers would have clearly missed the playoffs in a normal season. Because the NHL decided to go with conference seeding, New York beat out the Buffalo Sabres for the 12th and final conference spot and because they lost in the play-in but won phase two of the lottery, the Rangers really had the best of both worlds. Although the second round of the draft lottery was considered sketchy at best, it was what it was and New York has the opportunity to land Lafreniere, a true superstar in the making. If the Rags talent on the left side--Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and now Lafreniere--as their pivots, oh my would they have something. As of now they have Mika Zibanejad, RFA Ryan Strome and 21 yr. old Filip Chytil, down the middle which isn't the greatest but is good enough to make to take advantage of the incredible skill on the left side. They dream big in The Big Apple, and Tampa Bay Lightning superstar Steven Stamkos' name seems to come to the fore again. Why Stamkos would want to leave Tampa is another story but the Lightning needs cap space and the Rangers, who also own the 22nd-overall pick in this draft as well as one of he best groups of prospects in the league, could put together and impressive package. Hmmmm.

2. Los Angeles Kings--C, Quinten Byfield

We move from the east coast to the left coast for pick No. 2 and if you haven't been paying attention, Los Angeles has spent the last few years acquiring young talent and draft picks as they continue to move on from an aging roster that won two Stanley Cups (2012, 2014.) Heading into the draft the Kings have 11 picks in the first three rounds over the next two drafts (3 firsts, 5 seconds, 3 thirds) to use as they please and they are loaded with forward prospects led by Alex Turcotte, Arthur Kailev, Sam Fagemo, Gabe Vilardi and Rasmus Kupar. Even if they didn't move up from fourth to second via Lottery-1, Los Angeles would still be in great shape but at No. 2 they have the opportunity to add a skilled, high-end prospect in Byfield who has the ability to take his 6'4 215lb. frame directly to the NHL. Byfield checks off all the boxes (skill, skating, hockey-IQ, etc.) and will have the opportunity to learn the NHL game from two-time Cup-winning centers Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter.

3. Ottawa Senators--C, Tim Stuetzle

Tough luck for the Sens as they entered the draft lottery with two chances at the No. 1 overall pick, their own as the second-worst team in the league (13.5% chance) and the fifth-best courtesy of the Anaheim Ducks (8.5%.) Dreams of drafting 1-2 or even 1/3 overall dissipated as the final five picks unfolded but their "consolation prize" of not landing Lafreniere despite the best odds is Stuetzle, a dynamic center who many envision playing next to Brady Tkachuk in the not too distant future. The Senators organization has taken a lot of grief lately (and rightfully so) but one cannot argue with their rebuild. As of now Ottawa boasts top young talent in Tkachuk (21 yrs. old) and a defensive superstar in the making in Thomas Chabot (23,) both of whom are already making their mark in the NHL. Ottawa also boasts a solid prospect pool featuring RW, Drake Batherson and D, Eric Branstrom so adding Stuetzle (or even Byfield if L.A. goes in a different direction) immediately takes that pool to the next level. Add in the fifth-overall pick and if they don't have the best prospect pool in the league after this draft, they soon will. If you thought Los Angeles had it made, the Sens boast 14 picks in the first three rounds of the next two drafts--four first round picks (three this year, one next,) seven total 2nd rounders (4+3) and three 3rd-rounders (2+1)--providing plenty of organizational flexibility.)

The shock for Eric Staal is still there, but he seems to be embracing his role as Sabres "shepherd"

Put yourself in Eric Staal's shoes. The 16-season NHL veteran with a list of accomplishments that includes a Stanley Cup ring, as well as gold medals in international play (including Olympic Gold in 2010,) had himself in a good situation as he winds down his professional hockey career. He went from Cup champion with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006, to bouncing near the bottom of the Eastern Conference for eight of the next nine seasons with the Canes before they traded him to the New York Rangers in February, 2016. After a brief "sibling reunion" with his brother Marc in The Big Apple where the Rangers were bounced in the first round to the 2016 NHL playoffs, Eric signed a three-year free agent deal with the Minnesota Wild.

In Minnesota he found a home for himself and his family not far from where he grew up in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada and after that deal was done he re-upped for a two-year extension at a bit of a hometown discount. He's said to have built his retirement home in The North Star State and despite a career in Minnesota where he produced like he was in his mid-20's, the first thing that popped into his head as he reminisced about his time in Minnesota was, "shoveling off the pond and having and outdoor rink for my kids," he said, showing just how much family meant to him.

Staal had some great success in Carolina scoring 775 points (322+453) in 909 games. In addition to the Cup ring, he was a four-time All-Star with the Canes and was their team captain from 2009 until he was traded in 2016. He also his career best season of 100 points (45+55) in that Cup-winning 2005-06 season. Yet, in Minnesota, he seemed to come home as shoveling that rink gave him "that cool feeling of being out on the ice outside and kind of bringing back memories of me as a kid of skating outdoors," he said. "That's the number one thing I'll remember."

He was so content in Minnesota that as the Wild began to fully engage in a youth-movement this long off season, Staal was said to have structured his modified no-trade clause to scuttle any attempts by "playoff clubs that kept calling Minnesota over the last few years to see if they could convince the center to move at the deadline," according to The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun who cited sources close to the situation."

"It never occurred to Staal or his veteran agent Rick Curran," continued LeBrun, "that the struggling Sabres would see fit to trade for a player who will turn 36 on Oct. 29. So you can see their thinking, there. I wouldn’t have had Buffalo on the list, either. Who saw this coming?"

The shock still seemed to be there for Staal two days after he was traded to the Sabres as he took questions via Zoom this morning and it didn't take long for him to talk about it. "The initial shock of everything was the biggest emotion I felt and we felt," he said. "It's been a great fit in Minnesota for me and my family. We really integrated well not only on the rink for me, but my kids and my wife. And to me that's my most important thing.

"When you get that news (of the trade) pretty much out of the blue, it kind of throws you for a little bit of a loop."

Staal would mention "out of the blue" a couple of times to emphasize the surprise he and his family felt but also said that they've been able to process the situation a little more and admitted that they still had a lot to sort out and figure out. "But it's a change," he said, "We can adapt to change. We can move forward and that's what we're going to do."

Having said that, the cool thing about trading for Staal is that he's a true professional and Sabreland should expect nothing less than that approach when he steps on the ice in the Blue and Gold. Yes, his world was rocked and we're pretty sure there's a sense of dead running through the entire family, but "that's sports," he said.

First-year Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams knows Staal from their days in Carolina and both have rings from that 2006 Championship season. “The fact that I was fortunate enough to sit next to Eric in the locker room and we won a Stanley Cup together, I know what he’s all about," Adams told the gathered media during a Zoom call Tuesday night. "He’s a winner. He’s been there. He’s been in a Game Seven of a Stanley Cup Final. He’s raised the trophy. These are really, really important experiences that he’s lived that he’s going to bring into our locker room.”

Added the GM, “There’s a lot of thought and work that goes in before doing something like this. It definitely gives me comfort knowing the person he is, the family man he is. I know his wife very well. Certainly, having that knowledge and background is helpful when you make a big decision like this."

The feeling is mutual.

When asked how important Adams was, Buffalo's new center said, "That's been a very large factor. I've gotten to know Kevyn very well over a number of years. He was very good to me as a young player in Carolina. I'd been over his house numerous times as a young guy. We just got along real well.

"When he became general manager in Buffalo," Staal continued, "I sent him a note wishing him the best, knowing that he would succeed and do well. Little did I know he'd be trading for me in two months."

That Adams/Staal, veteran-to-young-player mentoring was also a theme of this morning's Zoom call. We don't know what the two discussed in their brief conversation but by the way Staal kept coming back to veterans guiding young players, one could easy speculate that it was touched upon.

Staal admitted that he didn't know a much about the Sabres lineup outside of Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner, a fellow Cane he played with for six seasons. Yet he's 35 yrs. old, knows that any team in the league will have younger players that need mentoring and paid tribute to those vets in addition to Adams who helped guide his young career. When asked whether he could help a player like 19 yr. old center prospect Dylan Cozens, Staal said, "the number one thing; I know all that help for me was watching these guys that had careers of 15, 16, 17 yrs. and see what they do. When I came in I watched Rod Brind'Amour, Cory Stillman, Ray Whitney, Brett Hedican, and as a young player you watch what they do and just try and have that kind of success. For me it's being a sounding board if [Cozens] has questions. It's about coming to the rink, being a pro, being prepared, having fun, enjoying it, all those things I know I'll do because that's who I am."

It would seem as if a veteran like Staal, a player who embodies true professionalism while being willing and able to pass on his 16 NHL years of knowledge, would be more of a fit for a team that's a contender. So did everyone else, including him. But there's the rub. This young group of Sabres led by a captain in Eichel who's just 23 yrs. old himself needs a player who learned from grizzled vets and who's been in the tough situations throughout his career and who can pass that knowledge and experience on to the youth of this team as it was passed on to him.

Working hard and having your sweat turn into winning is always the most fun. The Sabres have done much of the former, but haven't been as successful in he win/loss column as they stretched their playoff drought to a league-high nine seasons last year. It's a futility that Staal went through in Carolina and he stated the obvious, "it can weigh on you."

Staal mentioned more than once that he's in the twilight of his career and expectations for himself are in place as he's still in good shape and his body feels good. But he will e 36 yrs. old when the season starts and though it's not impossible for him to put up a 35-goal/70-point season, something like that would be a real stretch (like Buffalo trading for him? hmmmm.) However the hope is that  he can hold down that No. 2 center spot and have a positive impact in Buffalo as he'll be on a team with an elite No. 1 center in Eichel and a player in Skinner whom he said was, "an elite talent with a very unique skill-set who has a strong commitment to his craft." His unfamiliarity with the rest of the team left out other talented players like Rasmus Dahlin and Sam Reinhart, but regardless of players, confidence reigns supreme in his book

"Hopefully I can be impactful," he said. "That's the plan. I don't know a lot about the team but I know they have a lot of talent. Hopefully as a group we can develop that team atmosphere, that desire to compete and win every night. I think if you can collectively gel and be a group like that, tight-knit, you'll find success. I think confidence goes a long way for younger players. If we can get that confidence up in all these young guys early I think we can do a lot of good things."

"I'll just try and shepherd that along as I get integrated with the group."

Is this $72.5M Sabres roster playoff-worthy?

The set-up.

TSN's Frank Servalli placed the Buffalo Sabres amongst "at least" 17 NHL teams that have reduced expenditures due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In actuality, the Sabres lead the charge with a June 16th "bloodletting" of 22 people that took out general manager Jason Botterill, his management and coaching staff as well a scouts and development coaches. Servalli points out that the Sabres coaching staff, led by head coach Ralph Krueger, took a voluntary 20% pay cut from April 1 until July 13, "at which point they turned down a subsequent request for a 25 per cent reduction."

Owens Terry and Kim Pegula stressed a lean and efficient hockey operation at their end of season presser which was prior to the firing of Botterill and Co. leaving many to wonder just what would happen to the roster. Servalli addressed that writing, "Sources say the Sabres are considering an internal salary cap in the low $70 million range."

A figure like that is not all that shocking when you consider Pegula has reportedly lost tens of millions of dollars on the Sabres alone and are getting buried in all their financial investments (save for the Buffalo Bills right now) as a result of a once in a century pandemic. We can get into a blame game, something that has occurred on these Sabres threads for what seems like an eternity, but the gist of the matter is that financial changes are afoot and it looks as the Buffalo Sabres are tightening the belt. 

What's shocking, however, is that this belt-tightening might be coming at a time when superstar, face-of-the-franchise center Jack Eichel has openly displayed his distaste for losing and many feel that if the Sabres don't make the playoffs this year, or at least make some serious strides in that direction, he could want out. Rock meet hard place.

This off season seems like an ideal buyers market as most teams will feel the effects of Covid-19 and will be making tough choices based upon finances. There's hope here that Pegula will keep his wallet open for one more season but we're not planning on it so we're going to work with a figure of $72.5 million for the 2020-21 season, which puts us in the upper-level of that "low $70 million" area.

Here goes.

Those locked in

Eichel leads a group of only 10 Sabres players under contract for next season. As a group, the players here have just about the same salary and cap-hit which is important as actual salary for this season may well be what Pegula is looking at with an internal cap. The 10 players--Eichel, forwards Jeff Skinner, Kyle Okposo, Marcus Johansson, defensemen Rasmus Ristolainen, Colin Miller, Jake McCabe, Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju and goalie Carter Hutton . 

Total cap-hit for this group is about $48.291 million with actual salary expenditures of $48.323 million, according to CapFriendly. Of note, all player cap numbers come from CapFriendly.com.

The RFA's

Buffalo has eight restricted free agents, five of which look like locks to be re-signed for the roster with one other as a possible reserve. As we sign these players, including potential unrestricted free agents, we're taking into consideration that the pandemic and subsequent financial quandary the NHL is in will put a damper on salaries across the board. And for the sake of simplicity, we're also going with straight up cap-hit/salary. That said, the following numbers and term seem very reasonable for the state the NHL is in. 

RW, Sam Reinhart--4yrs, $6.5M AAV

F, Victor Olofsson--1 yr, 3.5M

F, Dominik Kahun--1yr, 1.85M

F, Tage Thompson--1 yr, 950K

G, Linus Ullmark--2 yr, 2.65M

F, Curtis Lazar--1 yr, $750K

According to CapFriendly, center Casey Mittelstadt is a 10.2(c) free agent who doesn't have enough professional seasons for Group 2 RFA status and is also ineligible for an offer sheet. We signed Mittelstadt to a 1 yr, $950K contract with the intention of giving him more seasoning in the AHL with the Rochester Americans as he's still waivers-exempt and is being looked at as a first call-up amongst forwards.

Both of the following players RFA's have arbitration rights but might not be a part of the future in Buffalo.

Defenseman Lawrence Pilut signed a two-year contract with Russia's Traktor Chelyabinsk of the Kontinental Hockey League in June. We're not sure whether there's an out in his contract but it seems as if he and the Sabres have parted ways. Pilut is a good defenseman and will be used in a trade for this exercise.

Brandon Montour is a defenseman Buffalo acquired from the Anaheim Ducks who is also an arbitration-eligible RFA. The 26 yr. old had a $3.3875M cap-hit last season and there were rumors that the Sabres wouldn't qualify him. For this exercise we traded him to the Los Angeles Kings for their 2020 second round pick and an additional 2021 third-rounder (TOR.)

Internal help from entry-level contracts

Rasmus Dahlin leads a group of young players on entry-level deals and much is expected of the third-year NHL'er. Having him anchor the defense will help immensely in the quest for a $72.5M roster as will fellow defenseman Henri Jokiharju who, at only 21 years of age, already has the look of a top-four d-man.

It's pretty safe to say that center Dylan Cozens is off-limits in nearly every trade scenario and we put him at 3-C as he transitions from Canadian Junior to the NHL. Dependent upon what the CHL does, Cozens could conceivably play a couple of months in junior before making the jump to the NHL. There is no American Hockey League option for Cozens this year so we're pretty sure he'll be in the Blue and Gold for the 2020-21 season.

Two other players on entry-level deals have played well, and had some solid success, at the AHL-level. Center Rasmus Asplund came over from Sweden and had two solid seasons with the Americans while also playing 29 games for Buffalo last year. He needs to be in the Sabres mix. Twenty-three yr. old defenseman Will Borgen left St. Cloud State (NCAA) after his junior season and has played two seasons in Rochester showing great progress. He's another that, in this scenario, needs to be in the Sabres mix. 

The big trade

In order to make an internal cap work while also filling a roster need and making this team a hopeful playoff contender, we need to pull off a big trade. From our own Sabres89 we heard that Calgary Flames center Sean Monahan and Buffalo's 2020 first rounder, the 8th-overall pick, were being discussed and we're going to run with it.

Monahan is an intriguing get as he fills the Sabres need for a No. 2 center behind Eichel. There are those in the hockey world, and in here as well, who believe at best he's a good 1b who might be able to drive his own line but who has defensive deficiencies. Sending the 8th-overall seems like a bit too much for that as the top eight to ten players in this draft look like serious contributors at the NHL level.

The Sabres need to fill a hole (or four) and Monahan goes a long way in doing that. To help balance things out we believe that Buffalo could also get Flames whipping boy Sam Bennett while sending defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen and the aforementioned Pilut to Calgary as their d-corps consists of four signed players right now and is somewhat lacking on the right side. Here's how it looks:

Buffalo gets C, Monahan and F, Bennett

Calgary gets 2020 eighth-overall, RHD, Ristolainen and the rights to LHD Pilut.

An added plus to this trade is that Monahan, as pointed out a poster in our recent thread, is on the books for a $6.375M cap-hit but will only have a $2.5M salary if the Flames pay his $3.5M bonus this year.

Look, I get it, there will be lovers and haters of this trade but Buffalo has some pieces, like Mittelstadt and Montour or whatever (save for Cozens,) if Risto isn't Calgary's cup of tea, to make it work. For as much as this writer hates the idea of sending the eighth-overall pick this year in a trade for Monahan, bringing back Bennett, who is also a RFA, makes it easier to stomach.

Filling out the roster

After trading away two defenseman, the Sabres will need to fill their defensive holes and we're doing that with two unrestricted free agents. RHD, Dylan DeMelo played a lot of minutes (21:08 ATOI) for the Winnipeg Jets last season and we're not sure if an AAV of $2.4M on a three-year deal is enough to entice him to come to Buffalo, but in these uneasy times it's a nice raise over the 2yr/$1.8 million contract he just played out in Winnipeg.

The Sabres also have a hole on the left side and we look to the Kings to fill that. D-man Ben Hutton is coming off of a 1yr/$1. million deal in Los Angeles and we're also going to get him through these tough times by offering a 3yr/$5 million ($1.667M AAV) contract.

Boston left-winger Joakim Nordstrom is finishing up a 2yr./$2 million contract with the Bruins. We're offering him a 2yr/$2.5 million contract to come to Buffalo for fourth-line duties. Derek Grant had a stint with the Sabres in 2016-17 that didn't go as planned, but he'd be a solid add at $700k as he's seems to have found his game in a fourth-line role.

The final roster (cap-hit)

Olofsson ($3.5M)  Eichel (10)  Reinhart (6.5)

Skinner (9)  Monahan (6.375)  Kahun (1.85)

Bennett (2.55)  Cozens (.894)  Johansson (4.5)

Nordstrom (1.25)  Asplund (.845)  Okposo (6)

Grant (.750)  Thompson (.950)

Dahlin (.925)  DeMelo (2.4)

McCabe (2.85)  Jokiharju (.925)

B. Hutton (1.667)  Miller (3.875)

Borgen (.864)

Ullmark (2.65)

C. Hutton (2.75)

Total cap hit according to CapFriendly's Armchair GM calculator:  $75.937 million.

When you calculate the total salary expenditures which is adds 32k for the actual salaries of all 10 signed players but subtracts the $3.5 million from the Flames paying Monahan's bonus, the total salary expenditure is:

$72,496,000

Yeah.

Possible answers to Buffalo's 2-C quandary--mid-six by committee

Published by hockeybuzz.com, 8-30-2020

(Note: this is the last of a multi-part series.)

The Buffalo Sabres haven't made a big splash since the days of general manager Tim Murray and Sabreland is hoping the team will do something approaching a splash this off season as they try to fill some holes in the lineup, most notably the second-line center spot.

In the year of Covid-19, a center like that just may become available. We've mentioned a couple in previous blogs and there could be more while also mentioning a young center like Dylan Strome (CHI.) Acquiring Strome or a player like Alex Kerfoot of the Toronto Maple Leafs could strengthen the top-nine but might fall just short of filling that gaping second-line pivot hole while also creating a mid-six by committee.

It's an approach Buffalo took last season, one which had some success early but faltered as the Sabres failed to make an expanded 2020 playoff field. Buffalo featured a top line of Jack Eichel centering rookie Victor Olofsson on the left and Sam Reinhart on the right and new head coach Ralph Krueger generally used this mid-six lineup until injuries set in:

Jeff Skinner - Marcus Johansson - Vladimir Sobotka

Jimmy Vesey - Casey Mittelstadt - Conor Sheary

The Sabres got off to a strong start going 9-2-2 in the month of October with a top-line doing it's thing and a second line that was having much success. However, the third line struggled and come late October, that third line was replaced minutes-wise by a strong defensive line of Johan Larsson centering Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo. By the time the Sabres returned home from Sweden after participating in the NHL's Global Series, they were in the throes of a four-game losing streak and they added to their woes by going 1-3-1 in their next five games.

What's the moral of the story?

Krueger iced a a lineup devoid of a true second line center and proper quality pieces. He got it to work early on but once injuries hit and teams started to find and exploit weaknesses, the clock struck midnight.

One would think, although we cannot say with certainty, that new Sabres GM Kevin Adams will identify and fill holes and he'll probably start by re-signing his own. The Sabres have a lot of decisions to make with five forwards set to become unrestricted free agents and another six players--including Reinhart, defenseman Brandon Montour and goalie Linus Ullmark--who are restricted free agents with arbitration rights.

No small task for Adams and Krueger, who is more than simply a coach in the organization.

As we pointed out right off the bat in this series, the Sabres have their No. 1 center in Eichel and though it's easier to find a 2-C than a top-C, it's still not an easy task. And if one can be found, the cost to acquire and/or pay them is usually high, which is why drafting and development (two areas where Buffalo has struggled mightily) is so important.

The past two drafts have brought in Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th-overall) and Dylan Cozens (2019, 7th-overall) down the middle however neither looks as if they'll be ready for a prominent role down the middle this coming season.

Cozens really blossomed in the WHL and expectations are high, but a sound NHL developmental approach is the best way to bring him along. Like most rookies, he needs to fill out his frame in order to endure and excel in the NHL and that doesn't happen overnight.

However one, or both, of Mittlestadt or Cozens may end up on the roster depending upon the camps they have and/or what the Sabres overall plan is, and that includes salary-cap related plans.

Barring a big trade, or any contract squabbles, the Sabres will have a quality left winger drop down into the middle six in either Jeff Skinner or Olofsson with the rest of the middle-six there for the taking.

If Buffalo were to land a Strome, Kerfoot, Andrew Copp (WPG) or any other top-nine/third-line center for a mid-six role they'll still need to be surrounded by better wingers than the likes of Sobotka, Evan Rodrigues, Sheary and Michael Frolik.

The Sabres have in-house options in versatile forward Marcus Johansson and winger Dominik Kahun and may get surprised by a young player, but they'll need to add talent one way or another. As mentioned before, if Buffalo was so inclined, they could throw an offer sheet at Toronto Maple Leafs winger Ilya Mikheyev as one way of adding talent. They could also go the more traditional route and attempt to sign veteran right winger Craig Smith (NSH,) or make trade pitches for a young vet like Sam Bennett (CGY) or young players like Josh Anderson (CBJ) or Jake Virtanen (VAN.)

If the Sabres really want to impact the roster this off season they'll add a legit 2-C and more quality depth in the middle six. However...However..

Buffalo's No. 2 center quandary, choice #3--Dylan Strome

Published by hockeybuzz.com, 8-25-2020

(Note: this is the third in a multi-part series. For part I click here. For part II click here.)

Of the centers that have been tossed around here as potential gets for the Buffalo Sabres, Chicago’s Dylan Strome might be the most attainable and most affordable in both trade chips and cap-hit. Whereas Anthony Cirelli (TBL) might be the most desirable for Buffalo, he might not be attainable and the cost would be high (but worth it.) The odds of trading for Adam Henrique (ANA) are better, but not without hitches, while his cap-hit ($5.85M) and term (four more years) are potential problems for a player that will be 34 yrs. old at the end of his contract.

When looking at Strome, however, the question regarding the 23 yr. old restricted free agent is whether or not he has enough to be a No. 2 center behind the Sabres Jack Eichel. He was drafted as such with the third-overall pick by the Arizona Coyotes in 2015 but was eventually traded to the Chicago Blackhawks after slugging his way through two-plus seasons in the desert. Strome played 41 games for the 'Yotes after a seven-game "cup of coffee" in 2016 and managed only 16 points (7+9) in his entire 48-game stint with the Desert Dogs. On November 25, 2018 he was traded (along with Brendan Perlini) to Chicago for Nick Schmaltz, a former first round pick himself (2014, 20th-overall.)

Buffalo's No. 2 center quandary, choice #2--Adam Henrique (ANA)

Published by hockeybuzz.com, 8-20-2020

(Note:  this is the second in a multi-part series)

Odds are that very few Sabres fans would balk at a trade for Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli (see the case made here) and even if this year's 8th-overall pick was the prime trade-chip coming from the Buffalo Sabres, there are still many (this writer included) who would go for it.

However, the odds of that happening are long.

In today's installment of filling the No. 2 center hole, we find a situation that is more of a possibility for Buffalo:

Adam Henrique, Anaheim Ducks

Henrique has been my favorite player for Buffalo to acquire for second-line center duties, but it isn't a perfect selection by any means. Not because he doesn't have the wherewithal right now to hold down that spot and help solidify the depth chart, but moreso because of his age, salary and term.

 

The 30 yr. old Brantford, Ontario native is  a former first round pick of the New Jersey Devils who was sent cross country in a trade with the Anaheim Ducks November 30,2017 (defenseman Sami Vatanen went to New Jersey.) Highlights from his stint in New Jersey include finishing third amongst rookie scorers in 2011-12 (Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Nugent Hopkins,) two overtime, series-clinching goals in the 2012 playoffs and a 30-goal, 50-point season in 2015-16.

In his three seasons as a Duck, Henrique has scored 64 goals and 117 points in 210 games (or about 25 goals and 45 points per 82 games.) Although his average at best 5v5 metrics from last season aren't really compatible with a player with a $5.85million cap-hit his 26 goals and 43 points in 71 games project out to 30 goals and about 50 points over 82 games which is very respectable for a full-time second-line center. It's also important to note that Henrique wasn't sheltered (50.7% O-zone starts) and nearly 80% of his points came at even strength (34 of 43 points.) He was also stellar on the dot--55.1% overall, 58.1% in the offensive zone. 

Perhaps the biggest thing about Henrique is that there's a strong sense amongst some that a hockey trade between Anaheim and Buffalo could work very well (on a cap-hit basis too) with right-handed defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen going the other way. Hockeybuzz Anaheim Ducks blogger Ben Shelley responded to thoughts about a trade like this by responding to my inquiry, "I do think a Henrique for Ristolainen trade makes sense for Anaheim." Shelley points out that the Ducks "will need to make room down the middle for some young players" and he also added that he could "see them looking to move Henrique before the expansion draft (in 2021) to make sure they have the spots they need to protect their young forwards." Shelley also points out that Ristolainen "would actually fill a need for Anaheim."

"[The Ducks] are lacking a right-handed defenseman," he continued, "and if they do look to move Josh Manson in their re-tooling, that hole would only get larger" with Erik Gudbranson as their only RHD signed for next season. 

However, as is always the case with speculative trades like this, no matter how much they make sense, the devil is in the details.

First off, Henrique has a modified no-trade clause where he can list 10 teams that he won't go to and even though the Sabres have superstar Jack Eichel and budding superstar Rasmus Dahlin, plus the opportunity to move closer to his hometown, Buffalo could be on that list.

Secondly Henrique's contract is for four more seasons at $5.85 million. Many feel that 2019 first-round pick (7th-overall) Dylan Cousins will eventually be the answer at the pivot on the second line but will need a couple years of seasoning (ideally.) A projection like that has Henrique as a third-line center with a cap-hit of nearly $6 million for the final two years of his contract. The Sabres could absorb that and finagle their way through the next two seasons but come 2022-23, the big contracts they already have, plus new ones for Dahlin, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, goalie Linus Ullmark and eventually Cozens could put them in a bind, especially with an expected Covid-19 related cap-ceiling of only $82.5 million.

Then there's the status of Ristolainen. The 25 yr. old defenseman has been a whipping boy for the analytics community and many fans in Buffalo the last three seasons and has stated that he's tired of the losing that's been going on. He's also equated his name with the possibility of being traded. Which is good for this deal, right? However, Sabres bench boss Ralph Krueger really likes how Ristolainen performed in his system which leads us to believe that Ristolainen is a part of the future, at least for the remaining two years on his contract. 

The fit seems to be there although Buffalo fans rightly should have some reservations about the extra two years of Henrique's contract that will take him to 34 yrs. old. I'd pointed that out on another site, while playing armchair GM, when I presented a trade that asked Anaheim to send a 2020 second-round pick Buffalo's way (with the Sabres sending a 7th.) That might not be possible from the Ducks' perspective so maybe they could eat a small portion of Henrique's salary, say $1 million?