Has the cavalry finally arrived for the Sabres and their prospect pipeline?

It's been a long time since the Buffalo Sabres have been relevant on the ice. In fact one could say that they really haven't been since they came out of the 2004-05 NHL lockout with back-to-back runs to the eastern conference finals. Since then they've tried a number of avenues back to relevancy only to find themselves spinning their wheels as they slid from a middling track of mediocrity into a ditch of desperation that they still haven't been able to fully wrest themselves from. 

It's been five years since the 2015 draft that netted the Sabres Jack Eichel and since that time they've missed the playoffs every year with the reverberation of those two scorched-earth rebuild/tank year reaching down to Buffalo's farm system. Their AHL affiliate, Rochester Americans, did not qualify for the Calder Cup playoffs in the two years after the 2015 NHL Draft, they got swept in the first round the next two years and Covid-19 put an end to the 2019-20 season. Down in the ECHL, the "single/double-A" of an NHL farm system, the Elmira Jackals missed the Kelly Cup playoffs two years post-Eichel, then folded. Buffalo moved it's affiliation to Cincinnati where the Cyclones went to the playoffs two years running before Covid-19 cancelled the season.

When former general manger Darcy Regier started a rebuild late into his long tenure in Buffalo beginning with the trade of Paul Gaustad on February 27, 2012, expectations in Sabreland was that picks and prospects would roll in as each of his "core players" were peeled away from the organization. Regier was masterful at getting prime returns for his group as Gaustad yielded a 2012 first-round pick, Jason Pominville got the team a 2013 first and a 2014 second rounder, Andrej Sekera a 2013 second, Thomas Vanek a 2014 first and a 2015 second while GM Tim Murray, who replaced Regier, turned Ryan Miller into a 2015 first round pick and a 2016 third. 

In July 8, 2014 blog here on hockeybuzz, the tally up to that point, which included the Miller trade by Murray, was four first round picks (2012, 2013, two in 2015,) three second round picks (two in 2014, one in 2015) and two third round picks (2014, 2016) for Regier's core players 

Regier did some solid drafting in his final two seasons and as we look at the 2012 and 2013 draft, the fate of those picks (18 total) are all determined by now. Four have been regular NHL contributors for the Sabres (Zemgus Girgensons, Jake McCabe, Linus Ullmark and Rasmus Ristolainen,) two were traded away and are NHL regulars for other teams (Nikita Zadorov, J.T. Compher) one was traded away and is set to make his mark in net after a long developmental period (goalie Cal Petersen,) one has been bouncing around from league to league which includes AHL, NHL and KHL but is back in the NHL (Mikhail Grigorenko,) two had a good taste of the big time but look like NHL/AHL tweeners at best (Justin Bailey and Nick Baptiste,) and one had a cup of NHL coffee before being relegated to the AHL and various leagues around the globe (Brady Austin.)

Although that group lacked high-end impact players, having eight NHL regulars out of 18 draft picks (close to a 50% clip) is still some very solid drafting. Regier, who was noted not making a deal unless it was favorable to his team, was hell bent on developing his prospects and really didn't make many trades prior to him purging his core, which was a far cry from Murray, his successor.

GM Murray hit Buffalo with a lot of "Murrancy" built up by his predecessor in terms of draft capital but unlike his predecessor, he had a quick trigger and had designs on rebuilding the team quickly after the complete scorched-earth tear-down from 2013-15. 

Without much left in Rochester or Elmira, Murray headed into the 2015-16 season using vets atop a group of youngins in the minors as a way to bridge a void left the tank years. Young players like Girgensons, McCabe and Ristolainen, who'd spent minimal time in the AHL were filling roles in Buffalo and there was a gap between that group and Murray's own draft picks that were at least a year or two away from beginning their pro career. The Amerks went into that season with Bailey and Baptist, both 20 yrs. old, who had legit shots at an NHL career and a few players from previous drafts (Daniel Catenacci, Justin Kea and goalie Nathan Lieuwen) to go along with Austin all of whom were long shots to make the NHL. The following season would be a bit different as a wave of drafted players, including 2017 eighth-overall pick Alexander Nylander, headed to Rochester to officially start their pro careers. Nylander had top-six skills and more upside than any player in the Sabres system, but he was only 18 yrs. old.

In the ensuing seasons Murray, along with his successor, Jason Botterill, would use the same formula of heavily relying on AHL vets to lead the Amerks while the farm system tried to catch up. By the 2018-19 season, the last year of Botterill's tenure and four years removed from the 2014-15 tank season, the Sabres had seven NHL regulars on their roster, only two of which were drafted by Murray--Reinhart  and Eichel, both second-overall picks--while Regier's picks of Girgensons, McCabe and Ristolainen were joined by two first rounders from Botterill--Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) and Rasmus Dahlin (2018, 1st.)

Things were also looking a bit brighter in Rochester for the 2018-19 Amerks as Victor Olofsson (181st) came over from Sweden and fellow 2014 pick Jonas Johansson (61st) entered his first full pro season. The Amerks roster also included Rasmus Asplund (2016, 33rd,) who joined Nylander from that draft class as well as Will Borgen (2015, 92nd) and Brendan Guhle (2015, 51st) who were apart of Eichel's draft year.

Yet missing from the Sabres during that season were a number of players or picks that Murray traded away between February and June 2015. 

Murray went on a splurge that began with him sending 2014 second round pick Brendan Lemieux and a 2015 first round pick to the Winnipeg Jets as part of Evander Kane blockbuster trade in February. Later at the draft in June, he sent another 2015 first round pick to the Ottawa Senators as part of a trade for goalie Robin Lehner. Murray would follow that up with another draft-day trade for center Ryan O'Reilly where he sent prospects Zadorov and Compher, along with Grigorenko and a 2015 second round pick to the Colorado Avalanche. A breakdown of what Murray traded away for players no longer with the club reveals that Lemieux has played 131 games in the NHL and all three players in the Avalanche trade have played in at least 200 NHL games. Ottawa selected Colin White 21st-overall in 2015 and he has played in 155 NHL games for the Sens while the Jets selected center Jack Roslovic with the 25th pick. He has 180 NHL games under his belt.

So what does this all mean? The Sabres are still playing catchup in regards to depth from the big club on down.

Murray was able to land Reinhart and Eichel with the second-overall pick in consecutive drafts while Botterill's "reward" for his club finishing last was drafting Dahlin first overall. Those three represent some very high-end talent, especially the latter two. Yet, because of a dearth of quality talent in the system to surround those three, Buffalo has had to go outside the organization via trades and free agent signings to try and add the appropriate talent. It's usually an expensive ride down a slippery slope.

For this season, in order to fill what seems to be perpetual holes in the roster, the Sabres traded for a No. 2 center in 37 yr. old Eric Staal and signed 2018 league MVP Taylor Hall to a 1yr/$8 million free agent contract, giving them five bona fide top-six forwards. New GM Kevyn Adams also signed a bottom-six center in Cody Eakin to a 2yr. deal to help fill the void at center behind Eichel.  What those moves have done is buy them some time as they'll have another year to develop younger players like Mittelstadt and 2019 first round pick Dylan Cozens while still, hopefully, icing a competitive. playoff-worthy team. 

As we move through Buffalo's draft classes, the verdict is in on 2014 and 2015. Outside of Reinhart in 2014 they have Olofsson who looks like a top-nine/potential top-six winger and Johansson, who has slowly been developing in net and who still looks as if he at least has NHL-backup qualities. Behind Eichel we find only defenseman Borgen, a probable NHL defenseman in a bottom-pairing role. Two other prospects from those draft classes were traded away--Lemieux, as mentioned by Murray and defenseman Brendan Guhle (51st) to the Anaheim Ducks by Botterill. Of the 15 picks made by Murray in those drafts, four are NHL regulars (Reinhart, Lemieux, Olofsson and Eichel with the jury still out on tree others. 

The jury's still out on Murray's last draft class (2016) but it looks like they'll have some contributors at least in Rochester while Nylander was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks for defenseman Henri Jokiharju (2017, 29th,) who's quickly establishing himself as a top-four defenseman. As the organization either integrates or moves on from the last vestiges of Murray's drafting. Players from Botterill's 2017 class have already begun to make their way into the Sabres system beginning with defensemen Jacob Bryson (99th,) who just finished a very productive first full season in Rochester. Goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (54th) played his first pro season last year and defenseman Oskari Laaksonen (89th) just signed his entry-level deal. And from Botterill's 2018 class we have defenseman Mattias Samuelsson (32nd) and winger Matej Pekar (94th) all on entry-level deals set to make their debuts in Rochester.

Adding them to the likes of Mittelstadt, Borgen, Asplund, Brett Murray (2016, 99th,) and Casey Fitzgerald (2016, 86th,) as well as free agents Arturo Routsalainen and Brandon Biro, all of whom are waivers-exempt, plus a directive to cut back on AHL vets, means the Rochester Americans should see a large influx of young, homegrown talent filling their roster. Many of them may end up as serviceable NHL'ers but players like Mittelstadt and Luukkonen have high upsides while any of Asplund, Borgen, Bryson, Samuelsson and Routsalainen could rise above lower/reserve roles on the club. Which is a far cry from where this organization was some five years ago.

It took a while and while nothing's guaranteed, it seems as if the Sabres may have finally been able to overcome stripped-bare farm system and a depletion of quality talent in an ill-advised, short-cut attempt for NHL relevancy at the expense of building and developing through the draft. Where it goes from here remains to be seen, especially with the havoc Covid-19 has wreaked on the NHL, but on paper the Sabres organization/development pool looks better in the near-term and if they stick to drafting and developing, longer-term as well.

Two players to possibly push the Sabres towards a playoff spot

Are the Buffalo Sabres a couple players away from possibly breaking a league-long, nine year playoff drought? 

Possibly. Buffalo has made some surprising off season moves that have strengthened the team up-front with the general consensus is that this team as constructed will end up in the 20-24th place range. Fair? Yes. Despite some big steps forward there are hurdles beyond the roster that will make it even more difficult for them to become a playoff contender in 2020-21.

First off, with the way the National Hockey League and the NHL Players Association are posturing, we're not even sure there will be a regular season to determine playoff-worthy teams. However, let's assume, even though the 2000's have shown otherwise, that the NHL and NHLPA will come to their senses and hammer out reasonable solutions to their main points of contention (player escrow and salary deferment) which would lead to an NHL season. When the season starts, where games are played and the length of the regular season are among things to be resolved, but let's plan on a regular season, even if it is a shortened one. In saying that, most Buffalo haven't played a game since March, which is an eternity when it comes to professional competition.

Next? Enter Covid-19...again.

Having vaccines on the way is a great thing, period, as the first steps will have begun on the long road back to a sense of normalcy as the vaccine is distributed throughout the population. That said, professional sports are a bit lower in the pecking order to receive the vaccine, settling in well behind front-line health care workers, first-responders, the elderly and those with underlying conditions, amongst possible other groups. Although it is totally up to individual states as to how they distribute the vaccines, it's safe to say that the aforementioned groups will universally be at the top of the list. It's also a widely held notion that the second quarter (beginning around April) will see the general public begin to get their doses (which could mean fans in the seats) so until then, the NHL is looking at scheduling constraints based upon U.S. governance of Covid-19 as well as international laws and guidelines with Canada using their own governance in relation to pandemic restrictions.

The NHL managed to pull off an admirable end to their shortened 2019-20 season with a bubbled play-in and playoffs, which was great for the sport and it's fans who watched exclusively on television. But that set-up also took a toll on the players and those who were in a bubble for weeks to months, dependent upon how long a particular team was in the playoffs. As of right now, we're pretty sure those involved don't, or won't, want to go through that again so there's a notion going around that the league will realign for the 2020-21 season. 

We won't get into all the divisions, but as it looks right now, the Buffalo Sabres could be in an extremely difficult division featuring, the Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals. Only one of those teams, New Jersey, failed to make the expanded playoffs last season and since the post-lockout 2013-14 season, that group has combined for one Stanley Cup, two Stanley Cup Finals appearances, three conference finals and a combined 26 playoff appearances over that seven-season span. The Buffalo Sabres on the other hand have finished dead last three times while missing the playoffs every year including last season when the league expanded the playoffs to 24 teams. Also of note, Buffalo is on their third general manager and fourth head coach.

Such is the mountain to climb even before we get to the roster.

The promising news for Buffalo is that new Sabres GM Kevyn Adams and second-year head coach Ralph Krueger pulled off a one-two punch to upgrade Buffalo's top-six this off season. Adams traded forward Marcus Johansson to the Minnesota Wild for 37 yr. old veteran Eric Staal, a player the GM had played with on the 2006 Stanley Cup-winning Carolina Hurricanes team. Although Staal may be regarded as a little long in the tooth, the center topped all Wild forwards in even-strength average time on ice (14:10) while placing top-three on the team in goals (19) assists (28) and points (47) in 66 games played. He'll be dropped down a line in Buffalo behind Jack Eichel and should provide secondary scoring on par with what he was able to produce in a first-line role last season in Minnesota.

For his part, Krueger was the principal factor in the Sabres landing free agent winger Taylor Hall, who is only two years removed from a league MVP. Although Hall has been hampered by injuries the last two seasons, he still managed 27 goals and 89 points in 98 games while playing for the Devils and Arizona Coyotes. The thought of Eichel and Hall on the top line has Sabreland pretty excited.

As good as those two moves may have been to reset the top-nine and drop forwards into a more favorable role, there's still one general area and two positions of need that could be the difference between ending or continuing their playoff drought. The Sabres had solid offensive numbers at even strength and were a modest 20th in the league in powerplay efficiency, which were enough to get them close to an expanded playoffs (Hall and Staal should help boost those numbers) but what doomed them was the second worst penalty kill in the NHL.

The Sabres killed off only 74.6% of their penalties, a figure that was a mere 0.3 percentage points above the last place Detroit Red Wings who had a historically bad season. Whether it was the structure of the PK, or the direction from assistant coach Steve Smith or the execution of the players on the ice, it's safe to say that Buffalo's penalty kill was the reason they didn't make the playoffs. 

It's been said the best penalty killer for any team is their goaltenders and if that's the case (which it isn't 100% true as everyone needs to be held accountable,) Linus Ullmark and Carter Hutton were, statistically speaking, a train wreck. Ullmark went from a .926 save percentage even-strength, which was ninth in the league for goalies who played in 20 or more games, to .838 sv%, or 50th. For his part, Hutton was equally as bad going from .912 even strength to .836 short handed.

The PK needed key saves and Buffalo's goaltending tandem didn't provide nearly enough of them.

A name that's been floating around here in the Sabres threads is Arizona's Darcy Kuemper. With Covid-19 wreaking havoc on the financial structure of the NHL and it's individual teams, word on the street is that the Coyotes, who've almost always been in dire financial straights, are looking to slash salary and Kuemper, who has $9 million on his remaining two years (at a $4.5M cap-hit,) might be in the mix as they also have goalie Antti Raanta at $4.25 million AAV.

Kuemper's numbers over the last few years in Arizona have been exemplary. With goalies that have played in 75 or more games the last three seasons, Kuemper is fourth in goals-against average (2.35,)  tied for first with Raanta in overall save percentage (.924,) is tied for third in even-strength percentage (.929) and is sixth with a .891 save percentage on the penalty kill. 

That's the type of play in net that Buffalo needs and they should be willing to part with something of  reasonable significance (or a combination adding up to that) to bring that type of goaltending in if they want to make a run at the playoffs in a highly competitive division.

It should also be noted that Raanta was at or above Kuemper in all of those categories except save percentage. 

Tandem goalie stats like that might very well be the result of the 'Yotes employing a strong defensive scheme coupled with a strong d-corps, which was led by a highly respected Oliver Ekman-Larsson. From a penalty kill perspective, a comparison has the Sabres goaltending tandem facing 98 high-danger shots while being short-handed 185 times (fourth lowest number of short handed situations in the league) while the 'Yotes duo faced 70 while being short-handed 197 times (10th-best,) leading one to believe that Arizona knew how to play defense and the goalies played their part while on their way to the fifth-best PK in the league (82.7% kill rate.)

If the Sabres could add a quality defender, preferably a lefty as they have too many right-handed defensemen, to a goalie like Kuemper, their penalty kill could make a real leap and their fortunes change for the better. A name on that list might be unrestricted free agent, Andy Greene.

The 38 yr. old Greene certainly ain't no spring chicken, but he still averaged over 20 minutes per game for New Jersey in the regular season and 17:40 per game on a well stocked NY Islanders team in the 2020 playoffs. From 2011-12, the first full season under Terry Pegula (which also marks the first year of their playoff drought) until 2019-20, Greene's New Jersey Devils ranked 3rd on the penalty kill with the 5'11" 190 d-man averaging 3:21 of short-handed ice time. Even post-Martin Brodeur (using 2013-14 as a marker) the Devils were fourth on the PK with Greene logging 3:35 ATOI short handed.

It's safe to say that Greene knows a thing or two about playing defense, especially on the penalty kill.

There are other moves that would be great for the Sabres but Covid-19 complicates things. And what the Coyotes would want in exchange for Kuemper (or even Raanta,) along with what salary moves the Sabres would need to make (which includes trading a right handed defensemen and trading or waiving Hutton,) as well as how much Greene would want on a free agent contract remain to be seen. But it's good to speculate this long off season and if Buffalo were able to pull of both of those moves, their blueline and goaltending situation could look like this:

Rasmus Dahlin - Colin Miller

Andy Greene - Rasmus Ristolainen

Jake McCabe - Henri Jokiharju

Will Borgen

Darcy Kuemper

Linus Ullmark

It sure looks a whole lot better than before.

Buffalo's No. 2 center quandary, choice #3--Dylan Strome

Published by hockeybuzz.com, 8-25-2020

(Note: this is the third in a multi-part series. For part I click here. For part II click here.)

Of the centers that have been tossed around here as potential gets for the Buffalo Sabres, Chicago’s Dylan Strome might be the most attainable and most affordable in both trade chips and cap-hit. Whereas Anthony Cirelli (TBL) might be the most desirable for Buffalo, he might not be attainable and the cost would be high (but worth it.) The odds of trading for Adam Henrique (ANA) are better, but not without hitches, while his cap-hit ($5.85M) and term (four more years) are potential problems for a player that will be 34 yrs. old at the end of his contract.

When looking at Strome, however, the question regarding the 23 yr. old restricted free agent is whether or not he has enough to be a No. 2 center behind the Sabres Jack Eichel. He was drafted as such with the third-overall pick by the Arizona Coyotes in 2015 but was eventually traded to the Chicago Blackhawks after slugging his way through two-plus seasons in the desert. Strome played 41 games for the 'Yotes after a seven-game "cup of coffee" in 2016 and managed only 16 points (7+9) in his entire 48-game stint with the Desert Dogs. On November 25, 2018 he was traded (along with Brendan Perlini) to Chicago for Nick Schmaltz, a former first round pick himself (2014, 20th-overall.)

Fortunate twists of fate keeps Sabres out of deep cap-trouble and may help in Sam Reinhart negotiations

The fates may have once again worked in favor of the Buffalo Sabres to keep their impending cap problems manageable as the effects of Covid-19 has put the National Hockey League, and all other sports, in a precarious situation. The NHL is slated to finish the 2019-20 regular season and playoffs in a bubble without fans to fulfill television obligations. Gate-receipts, a major source of income to the league, dried up and the NHL is trying to bring in whatever dollars they can. Finishing the season this way at least assures them of pro-rated television revenue. 

It's a situation that's having an adverse effect on the salary cap. The NHL and the NHL Players association have a lot of work to do when it comes to figuring out the logistics of the current salary cap and those of the 2020-21 season as well but right now in general terms, rumor has it that the cap will remain at it's present ceiling of $81.5 million for the next two seasons with a very modest increase into the mid $82 million range for 2022-23. A situation like this is forcing many teams with high payrolls and little, if any, cap wiggle room into a huge bind but won't have a daunting effect on the Buffalo Sabres as most of their roster consists of free agents. They have a projected $34 million in cap-space heading into the off season, according to CapFriendly.

However, that $34 million figure worsens a bit as 2019-20 performance bonuses come into play.

Buffalo was looking at cap-overages for this past season which the league will tack on as a penalty in 2020-21. Prior to the stoppage the Sabres may have had 2019-20 cap-overages totaling over $3 million, according to a piece from Joe Yerdon of The Athletic. Yerdon wrote that because the pandemic ended the regular season the Sabres saved $2 million in cap penalties as defenseman Rasmus Dahlin finished just outside the top-10 in assists by defensemen. Had he hit that mark, which was a definitely possibility, his bonus would have been $2 million. As is right now, Dahlin will receive a $850K bonus and fellow d-man Henri Jokiharju will get and extra $425K bringing the Sabres overage to $1.25 million which is slated to come off of next year's cap-ceiling as a penalty for going over. 

Although having a full $81.5 million to work with in 2020-21 would have been ideal, working with over $80 million is better than the possible $78.225 million had the season not come to it's early conclusion for Buffalo and Dahlin hit the mark. It's also the third time in the past 18 months that the Sabres have gotten lucky with their cap.

When former general manager Jason Botterill was hired by Buffalo in 2017, he was perceived as a salary-cap guru, among other things. Botterill had been in the Pittsburgh Penguins organization as an assistant to Jim Rutherford and amongst his tasks was trying to fill the roster around five players who took up about 50% of their cap space. In both 2015-16 and  2016-17 Botterill was at the forefront working through that situation and Pittsburgh wound up winning back-to-back Stanley Cups. However, his cap-acumen never really came to fruition in Buffalo, as we see by the cap-overage that new general manager Kevyn Adams inherited. 

Although he was saddled with some bad contracts when taking the job, Botterill did himself and the team no favors with some of his trades and signings. The optics of the Ryan O'Reilly trade were bad enough on the surface as Botterill traded away a player for a second-rate package that featured quantity over quality and the player he sent packing ended up helping the St. Louis Blues win their first-ever Cup while claiming the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP. O'Reilly also won the Selke Award as the league's best two-way player that season.

Two of the players that Botterill got in return for O'Reilly were forwards Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka, a pair of mid-bottom roster forwards who combined for a cap-hit of $7.35 million (just $150K less than O'Reilly.) This was on top of the bloated cap-hits he inherited in Kyle Okposo and Zach Bogosian ($11.143M,) both of whom were also playing in the bottom of the roster, as well as two players Botterill traded for--Jason Pominville and Marco Scandella, who combined for $9.6 million. Add in that Jack Eichel was pulling in $10 million and former Carolina Hurricane Jeff Skinner at another $5.725 million and you had a 2018-19 Buffalo Sabres team that was headed towards a cap-overage.

But a funny thing happened while on the way to an impending cap-crunch, Berglund decided he'd had enough and walked away from the remaining three-plus years of his contract worth over $13 million. With Berglund's $3.85 million cap-hit off the books, the Sabres finished just $2.8 million under the cap. 

It was the second time under Botterill and then head coach Phil Housley that a player was disgruntled in Buffalo and ended up leaving. O'Reilly famously said he'd, "lost his love for the game" at locker cleanout in 2018, just before he was traded and less than a year later Berglund, who never recovered from being traded to Buffalo, walked away from that huge guaranteed contract. Fourteen months after Berglund's departure, Bogosian voiced his displeasure and was on his way out.

Bogosian came from the Winnipeg Jets in a blockbuster 2015 trade and after initially looking like he could be in the top-four or even a top defensive pairing for Buffalo, he faltered, mostly because of injury. In the six full seasons between the Sabres acquiring him and his departure, Bogosian played in only 249 of a possible 492 games or barely half the potential games all the while sucking $5.143 million/season away from the Sabres cap. 

As 2019-20 rolled around Bogosian once again would start the season on injured reserve and when he came back, he didn't feel as if he was getting a fair shake with head coach Ralph Krueger. After being a healthy scratch, he asked for a trade. Buffalo tried to trade him, then they put Bogosian on waivers, but nobody would touch him and his contract. After Bogosian failed to report to the Rochester Americans the Sabres suspended him before putting him on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract. His accumulated cap-hit for this season was $3.8 million saving Buffalo his remaining hit, about $1.3 million, in potential overages for 2019-20.

Although new GM Adams has the cap-overage against him this season, Covid-19 and the effects it's having on the league's revenue and salary structure over the estimated next three seasons comes into play when with the possible contract extension of Sam Reinhart.

The 2014 second-overall pick came off of his entry-level deal and signed what turned out to be a very team-friendly 2yr./$7.3 million deal in 2018 and proceeded to post the best numbers of his career with a combined 115 points (44+71) in 151 games (0.76 points/game.) At 24 yrs. old, and dependent upon how he plays it this off season,  Reinhart could either be on the road to unrestricted free agency in a couple of years or could cash in on a lucrative long-term deal, dependent upon what he and the Sabres want to do. 

As a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, if the proper deal didn't satisfy Reinhart and his agent, they could file for arbitration and take the one-year settlement. He could do that once again after the following season then become an unrestricted free agent in 2022-23. Covid-19 wreaking havoc has the potential to change everyone's thinking as social distancing could effect gate receipts next season with a domino effect making life difficult at least a couple years beyond that. Or at least that's what the NHL seems to be planning on.

Prior to the stoppage in play, the general thought on a Reinhart contract was that of a long-term, 6-8 yr. deal somewhere in the $7 million/season range. Now we're not so sure. With uncertainty hovering over the league, he and the Sabres might be better off with a 3-4 yr. deal and with the salary cap expected to be virtually flat for the next three seasons, a $6 million cap-hit might not be that far off. Reinhart could go the arbitration route, which is brutal for both player and team, and probably come away with that $6 million figure. He could do it again for 2021-22 and maybe come away with a little more or he could sign that 3-4 yr. deal and  he could hit unrestricted free agency smack-dab in the middle of his prime.

It's a situation that not only effects Reinhart but all free agents.