Should the Sabres move up to land the top goalie prospect?

Reprinted with permission from hockeybuzz.com


If any team knows about the ups, downs and sheer wackiness that can occur between the pipes, it's the Philadelphia Flyers.

From the tragedy of Pelle Lindberg to Ron Hextall, to Roman Chechmanek, the 2011 goaltending roulette wheel, Ilya Bryzgalov and now Steve Mason, the Flyers have tried nearly every possibility to rectify their goaltending situation since Bernie Parent ruled the net during their Cup-winning days.

Although Mason is locked in as the starter right now, Philly's depth at goaltending is pretty thin and Flyers blogger Bill Meltzer believes that the team will draft a goalie. The question for him is, where should they take one?

Meltzer is leery of using a first round pick on a goaltender. His premise is simple. It's tough to project an 18 yr. old skater, and it's even tougher when it comes to an 18 yr. old goalie. Drafting a goalie not only takes the most guesswork, but the incubation period for a goaltender takes the longest of any position.

Five years down the road that top prospect may end up being a bust, whilst his lower round counterpart may be playing in the NHL.

At one point in time the Flyers stocked up on goalies using two firsts and the top pick in the second round over the span of five years to shore up their organizational depth in goal.

But as the "vicissitudes" of goaltender drafting and development would dictate, one of those top picks had a great rookie year then faded away, and the other two became career minor leaguers.

Should the Sabres draft a goaltender in 2014?

Absolutely.

Where in the draft should they take one?

That's a little tricky.

The Sabres' goalie pipeline is set up nicely right now. Although they don't have the luxury of a young prospect like St. Louis' Jake Allen (2008, #34 overall) that could step in and be a #1 in the very near future, Buffalo does have quality amidst the quantity while the ages and contact status' of the pipeline stretch to seven years. (Of note, Allen, the 2014 AHL Outstanding Goaltender and his Chicago Wolves travel to Rochester on Friday to face off against the Amerks in the first round of the Calder Cup playoffs.)

Sabres first round in the 2013 Draft brings in two big defensemen

Sabres owner Terry Pegula took over the team in 2011, just a little over two years ago.

One of his mantras during his first presser was, "I want to keep not only statistically good players, but winners, gritty players."

At the 2012 Draft last year, Kevin Devine the Sabres assistant general manager and director of amateur scouting, stated that the team wanted to get "bigger, stronger, faster."

Presently in the midst of a rebuild/team makeover, Buffalo went into the draft with many needs up and down the lineup--including top-line talent and defensive help. They went into Sunday with two first-rounders and two second-rounders and a total of 10 picks.

There was a wealth of offensive talent at the very top, some two-way standouts just below and some highly regarded defensemen said to be amongst the top-10.

The Sabres couldn't crack the top-four of the draft where Devine said there were two drop-off points--one after Nathan MacKinnon and Seth Jones, the other said to be after Jonathan Drouin and Alexsander Barkov. Another drop-off point, Devine implied, was somewhere around the 9th/10th pick.

Most fans had high expectations an impact forward and a solid defenseman, in either combination, to be taken by the Sabres if they stayed at No. 8 and No. 16.

At yesterday's draft one could feel the collective sigh coming out of the F'N Center, home to the Sabres Draft Party, when Buffalo selected defenseman Nikita Zadorov with the 16th pick in the draft.

Not that it was a bad pick by any stretch of the imagination. In fact most thought Zadarov would be gone anywhere from No. 10 to the mid-teens--within that fourth tier of players.
And most Sabres fans would've liked the pick had the team not selected a defenseman with their first 1st-rounder.

At No. 8 the Sabres drafted 6'3" 205 lb. Finnish defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen, a player Devine said they "keyed on" heading into the draft.

Ristolainen is a big, strong defenseman who plays with an edge and can move the puck out of his zone. He spent the last two seasons playing against men in the Finnish Elite league and acquitted himself extremely well.  He logged well over 20 minutes a game and was used in all situations as an 18 yr. old.

Projections for Ristolainen have him NHL ready. Just how ready is yet to be determined. Devine said post-draft that "he has a good chance of playing in the league next year." Ristolainen is under no Canadian Hockey League constraints and will either be in Buffalo or Rochester to start next season.

As for Zadorov, the Sabres had no intention of grabbing another defenseman with their 16th pick, "we had [Ristolainen and Zadorov] neck and neck," said Devine, mentioning that having Zadorov drop was "our biggest surprise."

"We were looking to move up [from No. 16] but teams were saying no and [Zadorov] kept sliding and sliding," said Devine with almost a Cheshire grin on his face. "So, to get those two big guys [without trading up] was pretty nice."

Nice is not a word when it comes to those two, especially Zadorov.

"Yeah, I like to hit," he beamed at his presser.

"In Russia it's not a physical game," he said. "Here in Canada everybody plays physical and play against you stride for stride. You should be ready every second."

In Zadarov the Sabres got themselves a huge, mobile defenseman with some offense and a mean streak.

So with one stroke of a 2013 first-round draft-brush, seemingly much to the dismay of some fans, the Buffalo Sabres revamped their blueline. Some would say at the cost of passing a possible difference maker up-front.


The Skinny

There are seemingly many things at work under the surface of these two picks.

First and foremost it signals a shift in a team-building philosophy that once largely centered around skilled, puck-movers on the back end.

Gone are the days where we'd see five Brian Campbells to one Jay McKee on the back-end. Throughout the last six, largely forgetable seasons, the Sabres back-end was about as soft as it could be outside of gritty veterans like Craig Rivet and Robyn Regehr.

A more balanced defense with the addition of heft and nasty is a good thing for everyone on the team, especially in goal.

Long-time Sabres goalie Ryan Miller has been run at for years, the Milan Lucic incident being the most recent, with little recourse and it looks as if that should no longer take place.

Picking the best player available has always been how Buffalo works the draft and in their minds they worked it just like that with the Ristolainen and Zadorov picks.

But it wouldn't be too far of a stretch to think that picking these two big defensemen will have some influence upon whether Miller re-signs or moves on.

Miller seems like a very loyal guy, and as he looks upon (up at) these two defensemen, he could see them as templates of the future on defense, and it very well could sway him into sticking around through the rebuild.

Yet another factor seemingly at work in the selection of these two defensemen is the influence of scouts from Europe.

Long-time NHL defenseman and former Sabres player Teppo Numminen has been an assistant coach for the Sabres for the last two seasons. Before that he was a scout with the Finnish National Team.

It's safe to assume that Numminen had access to scouting reports from numerous contacts in Finland concerning Ristolainen, his fellow countryman. And it wouldn't be at all surprising if the he was on hand for a few games himself.

The Sabres also have a full time presence over in Europe in amateur scout Fredrik Andersson.

Andersson was hired to scour Europe for late round goalies-gems like Nashville's Pekke Rinne. Last year the Sabres drafted goalie Linus Ullmark in the 6th round and he's quickly rising up the Sabres prospect ranks.

It wouldn't be too surprising to hear that Andersson had taken in a number of Ristolainen's games and had a full (obviously positive) report for Devine and Co.

And if those underlying factores weren't enough, one might also note that both Ristolainen and Zadorov have fellow countrymen on the team.

Regier and Devine had been telegraphing for weeks that some of the young players from overseas might find comfort in having a fellow countryman to grow with.

Most had assumed that Elias Lindholm would learn the pro ropes from fellow Swede, Jhonas Enroth, but that factor alone, obviously and correctly, wasn't enough to sway Regier and Devine to move up for and draft Lindholm.

They did find a match to their liking though in Ristolainen. He will be entering the North American pro ranks with fellow Finn, and World Junior teammate, Joel Armia (#16 overall, 2011.)

And Zadarov, who is just learning the English language having been in North America for only a year, will have fellow countryman Mikhail Grigorenko (#12, 2012) to buddy up with in the Sabres organization.

Many had been thinking that RW Valeri Nichushkin would be buddying up with Grigorenko to formulate two-thirds of a line. But the Sabres passed on the Russian due to his links to the KHL and his ultimatum that it would be either the Russian pro league or the NHL this year. Nothing else.

Pairing countrymen wasn't the driving force behind the picks, but it does add a layer of comfort for all four of the players involved and may help increase their chances for success in the NHL.


The Review

I was as deadened as anyone when they picked Zadarov at No. 16 in the draft this year, thinking there's now way they'd go defense twice in the first round.

But taking everything into consideration, the Sabres did well in picking both Ristolainen and Zadorov, two big, strong defensemen.

Bo Horvat was available at No. 9 and would have been a real solid pick, but they already have a player of that ilk in Zemgus Girgensons.

The shot at a trade up to No. 5 for Lindholm that was passed on by the Sabres is mildly disturbing, but I actually liked Horvat better than Lindholm so it really matters not to me.

What it comes down to is the Sabres are continuing to change the type of player they want to build with.

Ristolainen and Zadarov are two big boys who seem mature to the point where they look like men and both should be with the Sabres in the very near future. They're a couple of towering d-men who can play the game at high speed and seem intent upon protecting their own end in their own, somewhat different, way.

It's a postitive for Miller (or whomever else ends up in net,) it's a postive for the forwards who can play the game while having their backs covered, and it's a positive for their fellow countrymen (as well as themselves) as all four--Ristolainen, Armia, Zadorov and Grigorenko look to have an impact on the team within the next two seasons.

All-in-all, it was a real good first round for Kevin Devine and the Buffalo Sabres.

Sabres should feel pretty good about the 2012 draft

Sabres GM Darcy Regier should feel pretty good about the 2012 draft. The team had organizational needs--forward depth, size down the middle--and they were addressed aggressively.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the top two picks--C Mikhail Grigorenko and Zemgus Girgensons--who both, have a shot at making the team. Yet the rest of the draft has some upside as well.

On day two, their five picks were as a result of players who attended the 2nd Sabres Draft Combine. The combine, which started last season thanks to Terry Pegula's financial commitment to the scouting department, gave all parties involved a chance to get acquainted with each other. Unlike the NHL combine in Toronto, the Sabres brought in the prospects and put them through on-ice drills along with more interviews.

Last year they used the combine for two latter picks--D Alex Lepkowsi (6th round) and C Brad Navin (7th round.)

The Sabres went into round two with only one second rounder (#44, acquired from Calgary in the Robyn Regehr deal) and they used it on a defenseman--6'1", 200 lb. Jake McCabe.

Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com, in his comprehensive review of the 2012 draft, said that McCabe's total package was amongst the best in the draft and has him possibly reaching top-four in the NHL.

The McCabe pick had connections to Rochester Americans Coach Ron Rolston and the US National Team Development Program as he'd played for the Amerks bench boss in the USNTDP. Rolston, according to Devine, called McCabe a warrior.

There were plenty of eyes on McCabe as the Sabres also used their connections--this time with Wisconson Head Coach Mike Eaves, via cheif scout Al MacAdam--for plenty of insight into a player who, as WGR's Paul Hamilton gathered, was really mature for his age and a very sound all-around defensman.

The team continued to add down the middle by using their next two picks on centers.

In the third round (#73) they tapped into the Ontario Hockey League and selected 6'4" 210 lb. C Justin Kea, a player whom Kevin Devine called a "better skating Paul Gaustad."

Devine delved into the pick in his Day-2 draft recap on WGR by saying that Kea's stats weren't all that great, but a coaching change in mid season gave the Sabres some insight. The new coach, Greg Gilbert, according to Devine "thinks the kid will be a good third line center in the NHL." Both Devine and Regier played hockey with Gilbert.

Although Baker had Kea rated around #100, the Sabres had no 4th round pick. They liked enough of what they saw in him at their combine to take a minor reach for Kea.

With no 4th round pick (went to Nashville in the Gaustad trade) they headed to the fifth round and selected 6'2" 188 lb C/W Logan Nelson. Nelson is a USHL product that switched to the WHL and a player who Baker calls a strong, skilled forward who plays with an edge.

In another tip of the hat to Pegula's commitment to increased scouting, the Sabres went overseas to Sweden to select 6'3" 210 lb. MODO goaltender Linus Ullmark. The team had no goalies in the junior ranks with both Connor Knapp and Nathan Leiuwen being signed to their entry-level deals.

One of the things that Pegula mentioned at his press conference in February 2011 when he bought the team was that there's not a salary cap on scouting. Fredrik Andersson was hired by the Sabres this past January and the former goalie/goalie coach/GM had some specifics to his job.

The Sabres wanted him to scour Sweden and Finland, according to Devine, to focus upon finding latter-round goalie nuggets in the draft like Nashville goalie Pekke Rinne.

This is Andersson's first foray into scouting for an NHL organization, and it's an opportunity he's been wanting for a long time.

Using Andersson's intelligence on the Swedish goalie, they brought Ullmark in for the Sabres combine. Amongst those in attendance was new scout Toby O'Brien, another goalie scout who's focus is North America.

O'Brien had served as a Coach/GM in the ECHL and in the Eastern Junior Hockey League who's resume also includes a recent stint with the NY Islanders in the same capacity.

Everyone liked what they saw in Ullmark and it will be interesting to see how the 163rd pick of the 2012 NHL draft develops.

The team had two picks in the seventh round.

With the first pick in the 7th (#193) the team went big on defense with 6'4" 234 lb LHD Brady Austin.

Baker called him a "mammoth rearguard" with enough skills to be a "smart pick late in the draft." He also mentioned that Austin was the third player in a row picked by the Sabres in their second year of eligibility.

Finally, with the 204th pick of the draft, the team ended where they started, at the center position.

The seventh round pick, which was acquired from Chicago for Steve Montador's rights, brought the Sabres 6'0" 190 center Judd Peterson.

Peterson was another product of the Sabres combine and a player who was developing close to one of the teams' scouts up in Minnesota, Keith Hendrickson.

An interesting note from Baker, "Native Minnesotan Brian Burke was also said to be interested, but the Sabres acted before the Leafs final pick to snatch up the 2012 Mr. Hockey Finalist."

The team, although not trading up in the seventh round, went full-circle in drawing the ire of another GM. On the trade-up in the first rouned, Devine who gave props to his staff on the Grigorenko pick, also commended Regier for his trade with Calgary to land Girgensons, "A lot of General Managers came up to [Regier on day two] and they were kind of mad at him," he said, "because they were all ready to take [Girgensons.]"

Devine summed up the theme of his draft preparation saying the emphasis, using the Cup-champion LA Kings as an example, to get "bigger, faster, tougher."

The days of drafting smaller, highly skilled jitter-bugs, "the [Tyler] Ennis' and the [Derek] Roy's and [Nathan] Gerbe's" as Devine put it will be put on hold until "the outlook of [the Sabres] changes a little bit."

The Sabres are not only changing with size, but they're also changing philosophy with their forward ranks.

How many highly-skilled wingers have they drafted over the years as the best player available? Couple that with how they've tried to convert wingers to centers, and their subsequent failure, and you have the approach they took in this year's draft.

"If you look at a lot of the teams in the NHL they draft centers and a lot of them end up on the wings," said Regier as he talked to Hamilton on WGR. "If there's good wingers, you should draft good wingers but, if you can draft a centerman that's high quality, that's a good way to go and they can play the wings."

All-in-all the draft as a whole went as the team would have liked it to, especially in the first round, especially with Grigorenko dropping to them at #12. "We were fortunate in that there was a run on defensemen (a strength in the Sabres organization,)" said Regier, "we were looking for forwards, and it pushed [Grigorenko] down to us and it benefitted us."

Regier continues to show his savvy. He worked wonders last draft day by acquiring Robyn Regehr and an extra second round pick which enabled them to move up to grab Girgensons.

He worked the 2012 trade deadline masterfully by getting an extra first-rounder for Gaustad and trading with Vancouver for immediate center depth in Cody Hodgson while not mortgaging the future.

And he prepared his first round beautifully by having set up the trade with Flames GM Jay Feaster to move from #21 to #14 two days prior in anticipation of a possible player like Girgensons (or forward Teuvo Teravainen) being available with that pick.

"We looked at some teams who didn't have second round picks and Calgary was one of those teams," he said. "They wanted to see if they could stretch their first round pick into two picks."

Although they wouldn't gush over the draft, one would believe that the Sabres organization is brimming with confidence over their selections with the first three picks.

They had a potential top-five pick in Grigorekno drop to them at #12. They had a player they wanted in Girgensons, and aggressively went up from #21 to get him. Both of those players have a decent shot at making the team out of camp, with all parties benefiting if they spend another year in junior. Probably the only year they'll spend there before coming up. And they had a player that they rated as a low first-rounder drop to them at #44 in McCabe.

They eschewed the highly skilled jitterbugs for size and they opted for centers (five of them in all) who they'll switch to the wing if need be.

They used their new scouts overseas and in the US, as well as the second year of the Sabres combine, to increase the odds of the late-round crap-shoots making it to the pros.

And of note also, Head Scout Kevin Devine really seems to be having an impact on the organization. Not only that, his voice is being heard throughout Sabreland. It's a voice that sounds confident and always well-prepared. And he seems to be a rising star.

Plus, our good friend Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com who has done yeoman's work for years with little notice, is starting to become a more relied upon media voice as he's had multiple apperances on WGR including this morning's draft recap with Jeremy White and Paul Hamilton. He was been featured in the Buffalo News, Sabresedge pre-draft chat. His site has always been a labor of love with little recognition and now he's finally gettin' his "ice-cred" with the major Buffalo media outlets. Even Devine mentioned talking with him at Day-2 of the draft.

Add it all up and every fan in Sabreland should feel pretty good about this draft and how the organization is moving forward.