Buffalo's No. 2 center quandary, choice #2--Adam Henrique (ANA)

Published by hockeybuzz.com, 8-20-2020

(Note:  this is the second in a multi-part series)

Odds are that very few Sabres fans would balk at a trade for Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli (see the case made here) and even if this year's 8th-overall pick was the prime trade-chip coming from the Buffalo Sabres, there are still many (this writer included) who would go for it.

However, the odds of that happening are long.

In today's installment of filling the No. 2 center hole, we find a situation that is more of a possibility for Buffalo:

Adam Henrique, Anaheim Ducks

Henrique has been my favorite player for Buffalo to acquire for second-line center duties, but it isn't a perfect selection by any means. Not because he doesn't have the wherewithal right now to hold down that spot and help solidify the depth chart, but moreso because of his age, salary and term.

 

The 30 yr. old Brantford, Ontario native is  a former first round pick of the New Jersey Devils who was sent cross country in a trade with the Anaheim Ducks November 30,2017 (defenseman Sami Vatanen went to New Jersey.) Highlights from his stint in New Jersey include finishing third amongst rookie scorers in 2011-12 (Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Nugent Hopkins,) two overtime, series-clinching goals in the 2012 playoffs and a 30-goal, 50-point season in 2015-16.

In his three seasons as a Duck, Henrique has scored 64 goals and 117 points in 210 games (or about 25 goals and 45 points per 82 games.) Although his average at best 5v5 metrics from last season aren't really compatible with a player with a $5.85million cap-hit his 26 goals and 43 points in 71 games project out to 30 goals and about 50 points over 82 games which is very respectable for a full-time second-line center. It's also important to note that Henrique wasn't sheltered (50.7% O-zone starts) and nearly 80% of his points came at even strength (34 of 43 points.) He was also stellar on the dot--55.1% overall, 58.1% in the offensive zone. 

Perhaps the biggest thing about Henrique is that there's a strong sense amongst some that a hockey trade between Anaheim and Buffalo could work very well (on a cap-hit basis too) with right-handed defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen going the other way. Hockeybuzz Anaheim Ducks blogger Ben Shelley responded to thoughts about a trade like this by responding to my inquiry, "I do think a Henrique for Ristolainen trade makes sense for Anaheim." Shelley points out that the Ducks "will need to make room down the middle for some young players" and he also added that he could "see them looking to move Henrique before the expansion draft (in 2021) to make sure they have the spots they need to protect their young forwards." Shelley also points out that Ristolainen "would actually fill a need for Anaheim."

"[The Ducks] are lacking a right-handed defenseman," he continued, "and if they do look to move Josh Manson in their re-tooling, that hole would only get larger" with Erik Gudbranson as their only RHD signed for next season. 

However, as is always the case with speculative trades like this, no matter how much they make sense, the devil is in the details.

First off, Henrique has a modified no-trade clause where he can list 10 teams that he won't go to and even though the Sabres have superstar Jack Eichel and budding superstar Rasmus Dahlin, plus the opportunity to move closer to his hometown, Buffalo could be on that list.

Secondly Henrique's contract is for four more seasons at $5.85 million. Many feel that 2019 first-round pick (7th-overall) Dylan Cousins will eventually be the answer at the pivot on the second line but will need a couple years of seasoning (ideally.) A projection like that has Henrique as a third-line center with a cap-hit of nearly $6 million for the final two years of his contract. The Sabres could absorb that and finagle their way through the next two seasons but come 2022-23, the big contracts they already have, plus new ones for Dahlin, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, goalie Linus Ullmark and eventually Cozens could put them in a bind, especially with an expected Covid-19 related cap-ceiling of only $82.5 million.

Then there's the status of Ristolainen. The 25 yr. old defenseman has been a whipping boy for the analytics community and many fans in Buffalo the last three seasons and has stated that he's tired of the losing that's been going on. He's also equated his name with the possibility of being traded. Which is good for this deal, right? However, Sabres bench boss Ralph Krueger really likes how Ristolainen performed in his system which leads us to believe that Ristolainen is a part of the future, at least for the remaining two years on his contract. 

The fit seems to be there although Buffalo fans rightly should have some reservations about the extra two years of Henrique's contract that will take him to 34 yrs. old. I'd pointed that out on another site, while playing armchair GM, when I presented a trade that asked Anaheim to send a 2020 second-round pick Buffalo's way (with the Sabres sending a 7th.) That might not be possible from the Ducks' perspective so maybe they could eat a small portion of Henrique's salary, say $1 million?

With vultures circling the Leafs, Sabres could through offer sheet into the mix

Published by hockeybuzz,com, 8-12-2020

Yeah, I said it: offer sheet.

Sure, it's a rarity (only nine since the '04/'05 lockout) and has been non-existent coming from Buffalo, but as they say, the fire's hot and it's time to strike.

The Sabres need to win now and are in no position to take some so-called high road, especially when the National Hockey League gives all teams the opportunity to poach a restricted free agent from another team through offer sheets. Buffalo thwarted an attempted offer sheet poach in 2007. At their most vulnerable point while losing Daniel Briere and Chris Drury that off season, the Edmonton Oilers sent a 7yr/$50 million offer sheet to 40-goal scorer Thomas Vanek who promptly signed it. Sabres general manager Darcy Regier had no choice but to match and Vanek was Buffalo's best player for the next 5 1/2 seasons.

This off season, a remarkably historic one because of the coronavirus pandemic and the havoc it has wreaked, has the Toronto Maple Leafs (among other teams) in a very precarious predicament.

In addition to the lives lost and lives affected because of Covid-19, sports in America has been impacted dramatically with the NHL being impacted the most. Of the four major North American professional sports, hockey is taking a huge hit because they need people in the stands to generate most of their revenue. That isn't happening during the 2020 NHL play-in games and Stanley Cup playoffs and unless something changes dramatically, there won't be fans in the seats for much of, if not all of, the 2020-21 season. It's caused the salary cap to remain stagnant for next season with projections for the same $81.5 million in 2021-22 and a minor increase in 2022-23.

The Leafs did some masterful cap-maneuvering this past season spending an estimated $113 million in salary, according to CapFriendly, while staying cap-compliant. All-in all Toronto was able to stretch the upper cap-limit of $81.5 million to over $95 million through some shrewd maneuvering but next year will provide an interesting situation for them as their cap-hit is already nearly $77 million with six more players needed to fill out their roster.

Granted, all their big-guns are signed, but they do have one restricted free agent whom they'd like to sign to a relatively cheap contract.

Ilya Mikheyev was a 25 yr. old rookie out of Avangard Omsk of the KHL who was signed to a one-year entry-level deal at $925K. The 6'2" 194 lb. winger with plenty of speed and notable aggression on the forecheck finished his KHL career with a rock-solid 23 goals and 22 assists in 62 games before Toronto signed him. In his first season with the Leafs, Mikheyev posted a very respectable 23 points (8+15) in 39 games playing in a mid-six role. Although he was held scoreless during the five-game play-in loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets (zero points, 10 shots on goal,) there was little difference between him and the rest of a Leafs team that managed only nine goals total in the series while being shut out twice.

Like most of the possession-driven Leafs, Mikheyev posted solid analytics (54.61% CF, 66.67% HDCF) but no matter what those numbers say, it's the final score that matters. Toronto didn't get the job done and despite talk of an expensive key piece being a cap-casualty as they try to become cap-compliant in 2020-21, conventional wisdom dictates it usually doesn't work that way with a core-group. What usually happens is that a high-powered team tries to cut costs in other areas while also relying on team-friendly signings (as well as cap-circumventing moves like LTIR,) and Mikheyev would presumably be at the top of the list.

Buffalo is in a great position to make Toronto squirm but the question is, would Mikheyev be worth the cost? According to the NHL's compensation rules, an offer sheet of a cap-hit between $2,113,717 - $4,227,437 would cost a second-round pick. Is a top-nine player like Mikheyev worth a second-rounder? You betcha. But what would it take financially to get Mikheyev to sign and make Toronto balk at matching?

A 4yr./$16.5 million deal might very well get it done. Should Toronto choose to match, that cap-hit for Mikheyev of $4.125 million would put the Leafs at just about $81 million with five more roster spots to fill. If they don't match, the Sabres get a top-nine player for a 2021 second round pick.

The iron is hot.




(all cap numbers via CapFriendly)