Saturday, January 29, 2011

3-point games

while looking at the standings the other day i said to myself, "self? there seems to be alot of 3-point games so far, probably more than ever before"

so i decided to check out the post-lockout standings and figure out if that was true....here's what i came up with:

number of ot/s.o losses per season in 2460 league games:
  • 2005/06--281...11.42%
  • 2006/07--281...11.42%
  • 2007/08--282...11.46%
  • 2008/09--282...11.46%
  • 2009/10--301...12.23%
incredible consistensy over the first four years, eh?

here's where were at in 2010/11--172 in 1474 games...total ot/s.o. projected at 287...11.66%




*****fun with numbers*****
a "somewhat scientific" look at the projected cutoff number for the playoffs

conference--playoff points  east...west

2005/06--92...95
2006/07--92...96
2007/08--94...91
2008/09--93...91
2009/10--88...95


conference champs points--east...west
2005/06--113...124
2006/07--113...113
2007/08--104...115
2008/09--116...117
2009/10--121--113

total points for 1st and 8th place--east...west
2005/06--205...219
2006/07--205...209
2007/08--198...206
2008/09--209...208
2009/10--209...208

both philadelphia and vancouver lead their respective conferences with 71 points in 50 games...the projection for the year would be 116 points will take the conference...

we'll use 209 as a base in the east and 208 in the west, which is consistent over the last two seasons...

we're looking at 93 in the east and 92 in the west...
 
: )

2 comments:

  1. Solid Boos.. I'm glad someone has the time on their hands..

    So if the target is 93 points and Buffalo has 33 games left. They have to do something like 17-8-8.

    I hate to sound like I'm drinking the Kool-Aid but this is completely doable. I mean that's like going 6-2-2 every 10 which seems a much tougher task. but if they keep playing like they have and maybe a move or two is made this is doable.

    That being said, we'll be bounced in the first round...

    Awesome !!

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  2. appreciate the props, gil...

    time...lol...what a concept...

    anywho...

    was amazed at the consistency of the 3-point games over the first four years post-lockout...wanted to get that down for others to take a look at...

    93 is a good target, although that projection wasn't exactly "scientific," just playin' around with numbers...

    concerning points for 1st and 8th and any relationship between them, it's somewhat arbitrary, but i wanted to get them down for future reference...

    gonna look at the sabres in february--pre-trade deadline--early next week

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