The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we've seen, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
Having four of the top 52 picks in the draft this year, especially if it's as deep as most predict, puts the Buffalo Sabres in a very good position to add organizational depth. And dependent upon how deep the top talent goes, the Sabres may even land themselves an impact player at #8.
Depth is good and an impact player is great, but an elite player would be much better and that's what Sabres GM Darcy Regier is aiming for as he tries to move up the ladder into the top-three. But, the odds of that happening are pretty slim as it stands right now.
Kevin Devine, the Sabres Director of Amateur Scouting was on WGR talking about the draft the other day.
In the interview Devine was directed towards the possibility of moving up in the draft which he addressed, "We have had conversations with Colorado... I think it’s how far they want to move back." (those intimations sent Jeremy White in a frenzy)
Adrian Dater of the Denver Post laid it out like a bucket of cold water saying that any move from eighth to the first overall pick, to him, is a pipe dream (sorry, Jeremy.) When Dater was GR's on Schoppsie and the Bulldog, he said that the 'Lanche are interested in one of the three top players and that's where the negotiation for the #1-overall pick begins.
Overall, Devine looks at the draft as having Seth Jones and Nate MacKinnon clearly up top with a couple of drop-off points after that in the top-10. The next drop-off point is a large grouping of players from the 10th or 11th pick down to the lower to mid 20's. Devine has stated before, and he reiterated again, that there probably isn't much of a difference between the 10th/11th and the 20th.
In the last segment we looked at the Sabres sticking at #8 with thier first pick and trying to pull up that 16th pick into the top-10.
Today we get greedy.
Trying to add a third 1st-round pick
Far be it for anyone outside a team's "war room" to try and anticipate any kind of trade, much less any particular pieces involved. Although it is fun to play arm-chair GM.
With the Buffalo Sabres in rebuild mode and their old core being dismantled piece by piece, it wouldn't be suprising to see one of Ryan Miller or Thomas Vanek--maybe even both--being moved at the draft.
Both Miller and Vanek are core players and both have one year reamaining on their contract. They're the top-two players on the Sabres and two highly regarded, well paid star NHL'ers.
And both right now should be worthy of landing a first-round pick (amongst other things.)
If the Sabres want to load up with a third 1st-rounder in a deep draft, the trick is finding a team willing to move assets, including a first round pick this year, to land Miller or Vanek as either player could only be a rental for the upcoming season.
It should be noted that Miller has a limited no-trade clause where he can name up to eight teams that he can veto a trade to. Vanek does not.
Of all the teams between #7 and #20, there may be only a couple ways for the Sabres to land another pick in the first round.
Edmonton (7th,) Phoenix (12th,) Winnipeg (13th,) and the NY Islanders (15th) all could use a bonafide #1 goalie like Ryan Miller. Unfortunately, those four would probably be included in his no-trade list. They could also use a scorer like Vanek, but it's unlikely they'd forgo their rebuild for a one-year rental.
The Columbus Blue Jackets at 14th and 19th have a Vezina candidate in goal. They could use the scoring prowess of Vanek as well, but a one-year rental does not make a lot of sense for them either.
Ottawa (17th,) Detroit (18th) and even Dallas (10th) all represent possible trade-partners as does New Jersey at #9 and all are decent possibilities for either Miller or Vanek. For example, Ottawa has said they're willing to give up prospects (and presumably their first-rounder) to land a scoring forward like Vanek.
But the two best teams to trade with might be Philadelphia (11th) and San Jose' (20th.) And in both instances a cap-favor from Buffalo might be needed to get a deal done.
The Flyers have two potential cap-buyouts in goalie Ilya Bryzgalov and foward Daniel Briere and, as usual, they're at the salary cap ceiling. They wouldn't hesitate to use both this season in order to get cap-compliant.
But for Flyers GM Paul Holmgren, having to buy out only one this year would be a better course of action.
As the Flyers continue their seemingly endless search for a #1 goalie, Miller, even at his salary and for possibly only one year could be appealing. Holmgren has never been affraid to go after a player, or position, he desires.
He went after, and landed, Bryzgalov as "the missing piece" in 2011 (saying goodbye to 2012 Cup-winners Mike Richards and Jeff Carter in the process) but "Bryz" was below average in his first year (3.46 gaa/.887 sv% in the 2012 playoffs) and the team missed the playoffs last season. He has $34.5M left on that albatross of a contract.
Briere is a clutch veteran who excells in the playoffs, but is 35 yrs. old and is slowly being passed up by a strong group of young, talented forwards who count less than his $6.5M cap-hit. Which makes him a buy-out candidate.
Could the Flyers buy out Bryz and pull off a Briere plus the 11th pick for Miller trade? In that instance, the Flyers would free up nearly $6M in cap-space for next season and would get a #1 goalie. They would also have one more buy out that they could (and most likely would) use at a later date.
Would the 11th pick in the draft this year be worth it to them?
Over in San Jose', the Sharks made a strong run to Game-7 versus the defending Stanley Cup Champions.
With excellent goaltending, a rock-solid defense and top-line scoring from their star players, San Jose' looked to move past their status as "underachievers" in the playoffs and almost pulled off the feat.
Were it not for a lack of secondary scoring, they would've made it past Los Angeles. They scored 10 goals in the seven game series, three goals total in the final three games.
Up-front, top-six forward Patrick Marleau is on left wing. Raffi Torres and TJ Galiardi, two energy forwards, are behind him on the depth chart.
Having a player like Vanek on the top-line would bolster their top-six nicely.
The Sharks have had this core group of forwards together for quite a few years, but looking at the cap-chart for the Sharks, next season could be the last hurrah for this group as four key players will hit free agency.
GM Doug Wilson had this to say about the team and it's future, "There's something special about this group. We’re not a team that’s going to miss the playoffs for five or seven years and go into a rebuild. We don’t believe in that. We want to reset on the fly and it only works when you have players that understand what it is we’re trying to accomplish and participate in it.”
Vanek has a hefty $7.1M cap-hit and for a team like San Jose' that will surely be up against the cap to begin with, trading for him just won't work.
Unless...
Forward Martin Havlat and his $5M come back as part of the return.
Havlat seems to have worn out his welcome in San Jose', has two years left at that cap-hit, and seems to be a buyout candidate.
Adding a $2M player to their cap doesn't seem like a fiscally responsible thing to do for the Sharks. But adding a top-line winger and proven playoff scorer like Vanek for the $2M difference makes a lot of sense.
They will need to do some juggling, possibly moving a spare part or two, (say Adam Burish--$1.85M cap-hit,) which is something they'd be looking at anyway.
Would the 20th pick in the draft, amongst other things, be worth it for the Sharks in order to go "all-in" this year? And can ridding themselves of Havlat's contract without buying him out make a trade like this work?
The variables involved in either the Flyers or Sharks situations are numerous (including no-trade clauses for both Briere and Havlat,) but the basis is there for a good match in either case.
The Flyers and Sharks can take these key pieces and move forward for at least the next season while shedding unwanted salary.
The Sabres could add (at the very least) another first-round pick in a deep draft this season and futher their rebuild.
Buffalo has the cap-space to bring in either buyout candidate (or even both) and would have two years to decide how they'd fit into the grand scheme of things.
With the future of both Miller and Vanek tenuous, the team in rebuild mode and a deep draft class staring them straight in the eye, loading up with three top-20 picks this year would be a solid consolation prize if Regier is unable to move up from either of their draft spots this year.
Sometimes ya gotta do what ya gotta do.
Next: What Regier could, should and possibly will do leading up to the 2013 draft.
Friday, June 14, 2013
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
2013 NHL Draft, Part 6--Turning the 16th pick into a top-10
The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we've seen, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
In the last segment we looked at the LA Kings and their team-building.
The Kings had three players from the vaunted 2003 draft who played significant roles in their 2012 Stanley Cup season: Dustin Brown, whom they drafted, and two they traded for in Mike Richards and Jeff Carter.
The Buffalo Sabres already have two first round picks in what's said to be the deepest draft since 2003.
The Sabres also have flexibility this year with two second-rounders in the draft and they have an array of players that could be used as trade chips to either move up in the first round or grab another first round pick altogether.
Today we'll look at the possibility of moving up from the 16th pick overall.
Moving up from the 16th pick for two top-10 picks would be a safe bet.
As mentioned in oue 2013 Draft overview, while most scouts look at this draft as deep, even the most "pessimistic" scout sees this draft, in the least, having a "deep top-10" on top of an "OK" first round.
Sabres head of amateur scouting, Kevin Devine, leans towards the former in his assessment of the talent pool.
"It's a deep draft," he said, "it probably goes into the low 20's a team is going to get a very good player, and a player at 20 may be just as good as a player at 11."
In both instances, it would seem as if there's a cut-off point at the 10th pick.
With the top-four players in this year's draft all being said as interchangeable first overall picks, all four teams drafting in that range will have the opportunity to land themselves an elite player with elite talent. The odds of the Sabres trading up--their stated goal at the draft this season--are pretty slim.
Carolina has the 5th pick and Calgary the 6th. Both teams should have an NHL-ready player there for the taking and the odds of them moving down the draft are pretty slim as well. Plus, historically speaking, those picks don't usually change hands.
Ahead of Buffalo with the 7th pick is Edmonton. The Oilers and the Sabres will be able to draft comparable players who are said to be on the cusp of playing in the NHL. Behind them, the 9th and 10th picks represent potential on the level of the 8th pick, where Buffalo is set to begin the 2013 Draft.
Unless Sabres GM Darcy Regier works some magic to move up in the draft, it would seem as if the Sabres could be locked into the 8th pick.
With that in mind having three other picks in the top-52 after that spot isn't a bad thing. Especially in a deep draft. There are two ways they may be able to maximize their positioning in the draft this year after #8.
They can try to move up using thier 16th pick to land a second player in that "safe area" inside the top-10.
Or they can use their veteran assets--Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek (maybe someone else?)--to land another pick in the top-20.
In either scenario tapping into the strength of a deep draft like Los Angeles did when the assembled three players from the 2003 Draft on their way to their first Stanley Cup in 2012, could expedite the rebuild process while adding strong pieces to their foundation.
At the 2012 Draft, GM Darcy Regier also had two first-rounders and two second-rounders.
Regier was able to turn the 21st pick in the draft last year into the 14th by adding the Sabres second-round pick (#42) in a trade with Calgary.
He was able to land two centers with those first two picks: Mikhail Grigorenko (12th) and Zemgus Girgensons (14th.)
Like they did last year, the Sabres could very well have the opportunity to move up into the 7th, 9th or 10th slot this season.
Sitting at #7 in the draft, the Edmonton Oilers have a wealth of talent up-front and could use some help on the back end. There are three defensemen considered in the second-tier behind consensus first overall pick, Seth Jones.
Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com, in his mock draft for Sabres.com, has defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen going to the Oilers with the 7th pick. He has Darnell Nurse going 11th and Nikita Zadarov getting picked 13th.
It should be noted that Edmonton has a very young team, and they've made some siginificant changes this off-season including a new coach in Dallas Eakins. The Oilers are said to be open to trading the pick.
Team President Kevin Lowe said, 'Because the draft is deep, as you move along, if someone offered us something we felt could fit in with our group, a different age and a certain type of positional player we need, we wouldn’t be opposed to moving the pick.'
"A big center," according to Jason Brough of Prohockeytalk.com, "as well as a goalie to push Devan Dubnyk" are said to be pieces the Oilers are looking for.
Sitting in the 9th slot is the New Jersey, the host city for the draft this year.
The Devils have a lot of roster holes to fill and have a 28th-ranked prospect pool, yet only have four picks in the draft this year. In addition, they forfeited their first round pick next year as a penalty for the Ilya Kovalchuk signing in 2010.
Although GM Lou Lamoriello hasn't mentioned trading their first round pick, there are a few scenarios where the Sabres may be able to move into that 9th slot.
First off, it's being said that the Devils are interested in picking a scoring forward at #9. Baker has New Jersey selecting fast-rising Bo Horvat in that spot.
The Devils might be interested in the Sabres 16th overall pick and a player, either a roster player or an NHL-ready player that's in the minors right now. Do the Sabres have a "scoring forward Lamoriello might be interested in?
Or could he drop down to the 16th slot and find that type of player while adding an additional 2nd-rounder in this draft and maybe even add one of the Sabres three 2nd-rounders next season.
In Dallas, head scout Les Jackson doesn't seem to see a ton of value in having the 10th pick and is said to be open to moving down.
Perhaps the reason for Jackson's luke-warm reception to drafting there starts with the probable best player available at #10.
The Stars have organizational depth at defense and if the 2013 draft unfolds the way most think, impact forwards will be gone leaving Dallas looking at a defenseman as the best player available.
Dallas also has a new GM that grew accustomed to picking in the latter half of the first round (or mostly starting in the second round) in Jim Nill.
Nill was the director of amateur scouting with Detroit. In his 15 years with the organization, the Wings never missed the playoffs and never drafted higher than #19 (Jakub Kindl, 2005.)
Dallas also has nine picks in the draft this year including a second first-rounder acquired from Boston and an extra second-rounder.
With that kind of organizational depth, and those many picks, using the Sabres 16th pick and an additional second rounder probably wouldn't be that appealing to Nill.
They would probably be leaning more towards a roster player or a forward prospect on the cusp of the NHL in a trade down scenario.
There's also the possibility that they would move that pick straight up for a upper-level roster player.
Which leads us to the next segment: Loading up with a third first-rounder in a deep 2013 draft.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we've seen, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
In the last segment we looked at the LA Kings and their team-building.
The Kings had three players from the vaunted 2003 draft who played significant roles in their 2012 Stanley Cup season: Dustin Brown, whom they drafted, and two they traded for in Mike Richards and Jeff Carter.
The Buffalo Sabres already have two first round picks in what's said to be the deepest draft since 2003.
The Sabres also have flexibility this year with two second-rounders in the draft and they have an array of players that could be used as trade chips to either move up in the first round or grab another first round pick altogether.
Today we'll look at the possibility of moving up from the 16th pick overall.
Moving up from the 16th pick for two top-10 picks would be a safe bet.
As mentioned in oue 2013 Draft overview, while most scouts look at this draft as deep, even the most "pessimistic" scout sees this draft, in the least, having a "deep top-10" on top of an "OK" first round.
Sabres head of amateur scouting, Kevin Devine, leans towards the former in his assessment of the talent pool.
"It's a deep draft," he said, "it probably goes into the low 20's a team is going to get a very good player, and a player at 20 may be just as good as a player at 11."
In both instances, it would seem as if there's a cut-off point at the 10th pick.
With the top-four players in this year's draft all being said as interchangeable first overall picks, all four teams drafting in that range will have the opportunity to land themselves an elite player with elite talent. The odds of the Sabres trading up--their stated goal at the draft this season--are pretty slim.
Carolina has the 5th pick and Calgary the 6th. Both teams should have an NHL-ready player there for the taking and the odds of them moving down the draft are pretty slim as well. Plus, historically speaking, those picks don't usually change hands.
Ahead of Buffalo with the 7th pick is Edmonton. The Oilers and the Sabres will be able to draft comparable players who are said to be on the cusp of playing in the NHL. Behind them, the 9th and 10th picks represent potential on the level of the 8th pick, where Buffalo is set to begin the 2013 Draft.
Unless Sabres GM Darcy Regier works some magic to move up in the draft, it would seem as if the Sabres could be locked into the 8th pick.
With that in mind having three other picks in the top-52 after that spot isn't a bad thing. Especially in a deep draft. There are two ways they may be able to maximize their positioning in the draft this year after #8.
They can try to move up using thier 16th pick to land a second player in that "safe area" inside the top-10.
Or they can use their veteran assets--Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek (maybe someone else?)--to land another pick in the top-20.
In either scenario tapping into the strength of a deep draft like Los Angeles did when the assembled three players from the 2003 Draft on their way to their first Stanley Cup in 2012, could expedite the rebuild process while adding strong pieces to their foundation.
At the 2012 Draft, GM Darcy Regier also had two first-rounders and two second-rounders.
Regier was able to turn the 21st pick in the draft last year into the 14th by adding the Sabres second-round pick (#42) in a trade with Calgary.
He was able to land two centers with those first two picks: Mikhail Grigorenko (12th) and Zemgus Girgensons (14th.)
Like they did last year, the Sabres could very well have the opportunity to move up into the 7th, 9th or 10th slot this season.
Sitting at #7 in the draft, the Edmonton Oilers have a wealth of talent up-front and could use some help on the back end. There are three defensemen considered in the second-tier behind consensus first overall pick, Seth Jones.
Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com, in his mock draft for Sabres.com, has defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen going to the Oilers with the 7th pick. He has Darnell Nurse going 11th and Nikita Zadarov getting picked 13th.
It should be noted that Edmonton has a very young team, and they've made some siginificant changes this off-season including a new coach in Dallas Eakins. The Oilers are said to be open to trading the pick.
Team President Kevin Lowe said, 'Because the draft is deep, as you move along, if someone offered us something we felt could fit in with our group, a different age and a certain type of positional player we need, we wouldn’t be opposed to moving the pick.'
"A big center," according to Jason Brough of Prohockeytalk.com, "as well as a goalie to push Devan Dubnyk" are said to be pieces the Oilers are looking for.
Sitting in the 9th slot is the New Jersey, the host city for the draft this year.
The Devils have a lot of roster holes to fill and have a 28th-ranked prospect pool, yet only have four picks in the draft this year. In addition, they forfeited their first round pick next year as a penalty for the Ilya Kovalchuk signing in 2010.
Although GM Lou Lamoriello hasn't mentioned trading their first round pick, there are a few scenarios where the Sabres may be able to move into that 9th slot.
First off, it's being said that the Devils are interested in picking a scoring forward at #9. Baker has New Jersey selecting fast-rising Bo Horvat in that spot.
The Devils might be interested in the Sabres 16th overall pick and a player, either a roster player or an NHL-ready player that's in the minors right now. Do the Sabres have a "scoring forward Lamoriello might be interested in?
Or could he drop down to the 16th slot and find that type of player while adding an additional 2nd-rounder in this draft and maybe even add one of the Sabres three 2nd-rounders next season.
In Dallas, head scout Les Jackson doesn't seem to see a ton of value in having the 10th pick and is said to be open to moving down.
Perhaps the reason for Jackson's luke-warm reception to drafting there starts with the probable best player available at #10.
The Stars have organizational depth at defense and if the 2013 draft unfolds the way most think, impact forwards will be gone leaving Dallas looking at a defenseman as the best player available.
Dallas also has a new GM that grew accustomed to picking in the latter half of the first round (or mostly starting in the second round) in Jim Nill.
Nill was the director of amateur scouting with Detroit. In his 15 years with the organization, the Wings never missed the playoffs and never drafted higher than #19 (Jakub Kindl, 2005.)
Dallas also has nine picks in the draft this year including a second first-rounder acquired from Boston and an extra second-rounder.
With that kind of organizational depth, and those many picks, using the Sabres 16th pick and an additional second rounder probably wouldn't be that appealing to Nill.
They would probably be leaning more towards a roster player or a forward prospect on the cusp of the NHL in a trade down scenario.
There's also the possibility that they would move that pick straight up for a upper-level roster player.
Which leads us to the next segment: Loading up with a third first-rounder in a deep 2013 draft.
Monday, June 10, 2013
2013 NHL Draft Part 5--The LA Kings model
The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we have seen, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
There's not a hockey person on this planet who will disagree that having two superstars on a team dramatically increase the odds of hoisting the Stanley Cup.
Two teams who were bad at the right time and lucky enough to grab elite top-three picks two years running were Pittsburgh and Chicago.
The Penguins actually stunk four years in a row to collect four consecutive top-two picks: Marc-Andre Fluery (1st overall, 2003,) Evgeni Malkin (2nd, 2004,) Sidney Crosby (1st, 2005) and Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006.)
The Blackhawks managed to land three top-three picks during a stretch of four years: Cam Barker (3rd, 2004,) Jonathan Toews (3rd, 2006) and Patrick Kane (1st, 2007.)
Both teams hoisted the Cup in the era between lockouts: Pittsburgh, 2009; Chicago 2010, and both made it to their respective conference championships this year with the Blackhawks advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals beginning on Wednesday.
Prior to the 2013 NHL Draft, the Buffalo Sabres have not had a pick higher than #12 and when it comes to team-building, right now the Sabres are neither the Penguins or the Blackhawks.
But the two other conference finalists this year took different approaches that involved fewer years of "suffering."
The Boston Bruins (2011 Stanley Cup winners) and LA Kings (2012 Stanley Cup winners) both made it to their respective conference finals with the Bruins advancing to meet the Blackhawks for the 2013 Stanley Cup.
The Boston Bruins were built mainly outside of the draft, which is a route that Buffalo will eschew for the time being.
Of their top-nine forwards, only David Krejci (#63, 2004,) Patrice Bergeron, (#45, 2003,) Milan Lucic (#50, 2006) and Brad Marchand (#71, 2006) are homegrown.
The rest of the team was built via trades and free agent acquisitions, including their goaltenders, Tuuka Rask, who was picked up from Toronto in a 2006 trade and 2011 Conn Smythe winner, goalie Tim Thomas, a free agent signing in 2005.
They missed the playoffs the first two seasons after the 2004-05 lockout and had two top-ten picks--Phil Kessel (#5, 2006) and Zach Hamill (#8, 2007.) Both were traded.
The Los Angeles Kings present an interesting model to use as a guide for the Sabres as they rebuild via the draft. Their roster has four top-nine forwards, 2012 Conn Smythe winner--goalie Jonathan Quick--franchise defensman Drew Doughty and emerging defenseman Slava Voynov all drafted by the team.
A look back at how Los Angeles built their Cup-winner, has the Kings making the playoffs three straight seasons beginning in 1999-'00, but never making it past the second round getting bounced in the first round twice.
The next three seasons saw them miss the playoffs, yet the team ended up drafting outside the top-10. Their picks: Dustin Brown 13th, 2003; Lauri Tukonen 11th, 2004; Anze Kopitar 11th, 2005.
GM Dave Taylor was fired after the 2005-06 season and was replaced by Dean Lombardi who began cleaning house and starting a two year drive to the second worst record in the league in 2007-08.
Lombardi's first pick was outside the top-10--goalie Jonathan Bernier 11th, 2006. While bottoming out the Kings landed two top-five picks in consecutive years: D Thomas Hickey (4th, 2007) and Doughty (2nd, 2008.)
From there, their ascension to the Stanley Cup began.
To augment his young group of homegrown talent, Lombardi acquired Cup-winners Rob Scuderi and Justin Williams in 2009, along with Willie Mitchell in 2010. They made the playoffs in both those seasons, but were bounced in the first round each time.
With it's homegrown core and a few wily veterans anchoring the team, Lombardi then tapped into the 2003 draft to land two key forwards that would help propel them to the 2012 Cup.
In the 2011 off season, the Kings acquired gritty two-way forward Mike Richards (24th overall, 2003) then traded for sniper (and Richards' friend) Jeff Carter (11th, 2003) in December. Both were drafted by, and played for Philadelphia (with Carter being traded to Columbus in the 2011 off season.)
The Kings had a great mix of skaters in front of goalie Quick with three 2003 first round draft picks at the fore of their Stanley Cup season--Brown, Richards and Carter
Would the Kings have won the Cup without those final pieces, Richards and Carter?
Possibly.
But the fact remains: with the 2003 draft possibly being the best draft class ever, having three from that class significantly increased the top-end talent on the team.
How does that relate to the Sabres this off season?
Buffalo has drafted outside the top-10 dating back to 2004. They have a top-10 pick this year for the first time since 2003 and have two picks in the draft: #8 and #16. Both picks in a deep draft could be top-end anchors as the team rebuilds for the future.
But, sometimes it may be good to be greedy and if it's true that either Ryan Miller or Thomas Vanek are on the trade block, there's no reason that they shouldn't be able to garner another team's 2013 first round pick in the deal (provided they have one.)
It took the LA Kings eight years to tap into the deep 2003 draft and assemble three key pieces to their Championship season. It took some star-alignment as well in that both Richards and Carter were available.
It also took some prime assets to get those two, like Jack Johnson (3rd overall, 2005,) Brayden Schenn (5th overall, 2009,) Wayne Simmons (61st, 2007) and a first round pick (2013.)
In looking at the 2013 draft, even the most pessimistic prognosticator has the top-10 as top-notch and most believe that strength stretches all the way down to the 20th pick or so.
In a worse-case scenario, if two picks in the top-16 are good, two in the top-10 would be even better. In a best-case scenario, if two top-20 picks are good in a deep draft, three is even better.
Move up or load up?
Next: Using the 16th overall pick to get into the top-10
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we have seen, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
There's not a hockey person on this planet who will disagree that having two superstars on a team dramatically increase the odds of hoisting the Stanley Cup.
Two teams who were bad at the right time and lucky enough to grab elite top-three picks two years running were Pittsburgh and Chicago.
The Penguins actually stunk four years in a row to collect four consecutive top-two picks: Marc-Andre Fluery (1st overall, 2003,) Evgeni Malkin (2nd, 2004,) Sidney Crosby (1st, 2005) and Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006.)
The Blackhawks managed to land three top-three picks during a stretch of four years: Cam Barker (3rd, 2004,) Jonathan Toews (3rd, 2006) and Patrick Kane (1st, 2007.)
Both teams hoisted the Cup in the era between lockouts: Pittsburgh, 2009; Chicago 2010, and both made it to their respective conference championships this year with the Blackhawks advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals beginning on Wednesday.
Prior to the 2013 NHL Draft, the Buffalo Sabres have not had a pick higher than #12 and when it comes to team-building, right now the Sabres are neither the Penguins or the Blackhawks.
But the two other conference finalists this year took different approaches that involved fewer years of "suffering."
The Boston Bruins (2011 Stanley Cup winners) and LA Kings (2012 Stanley Cup winners) both made it to their respective conference finals with the Bruins advancing to meet the Blackhawks for the 2013 Stanley Cup.
The Boston Bruins were built mainly outside of the draft, which is a route that Buffalo will eschew for the time being.
Of their top-nine forwards, only David Krejci (#63, 2004,) Patrice Bergeron, (#45, 2003,) Milan Lucic (#50, 2006) and Brad Marchand (#71, 2006) are homegrown.
The rest of the team was built via trades and free agent acquisitions, including their goaltenders, Tuuka Rask, who was picked up from Toronto in a 2006 trade and 2011 Conn Smythe winner, goalie Tim Thomas, a free agent signing in 2005.
They missed the playoffs the first two seasons after the 2004-05 lockout and had two top-ten picks--Phil Kessel (#5, 2006) and Zach Hamill (#8, 2007.) Both were traded.
The Los Angeles Kings present an interesting model to use as a guide for the Sabres as they rebuild via the draft. Their roster has four top-nine forwards, 2012 Conn Smythe winner--goalie Jonathan Quick--franchise defensman Drew Doughty and emerging defenseman Slava Voynov all drafted by the team.
A look back at how Los Angeles built their Cup-winner, has the Kings making the playoffs three straight seasons beginning in 1999-'00, but never making it past the second round getting bounced in the first round twice.
The next three seasons saw them miss the playoffs, yet the team ended up drafting outside the top-10. Their picks: Dustin Brown 13th, 2003; Lauri Tukonen 11th, 2004; Anze Kopitar 11th, 2005.
GM Dave Taylor was fired after the 2005-06 season and was replaced by Dean Lombardi who began cleaning house and starting a two year drive to the second worst record in the league in 2007-08.
Lombardi's first pick was outside the top-10--goalie Jonathan Bernier 11th, 2006. While bottoming out the Kings landed two top-five picks in consecutive years: D Thomas Hickey (4th, 2007) and Doughty (2nd, 2008.)
From there, their ascension to the Stanley Cup began.
To augment his young group of homegrown talent, Lombardi acquired Cup-winners Rob Scuderi and Justin Williams in 2009, along with Willie Mitchell in 2010. They made the playoffs in both those seasons, but were bounced in the first round each time.
With it's homegrown core and a few wily veterans anchoring the team, Lombardi then tapped into the 2003 draft to land two key forwards that would help propel them to the 2012 Cup.
In the 2011 off season, the Kings acquired gritty two-way forward Mike Richards (24th overall, 2003) then traded for sniper (and Richards' friend) Jeff Carter (11th, 2003) in December. Both were drafted by, and played for Philadelphia (with Carter being traded to Columbus in the 2011 off season.)
The Kings had a great mix of skaters in front of goalie Quick with three 2003 first round draft picks at the fore of their Stanley Cup season--Brown, Richards and Carter
Would the Kings have won the Cup without those final pieces, Richards and Carter?
Possibly.
But the fact remains: with the 2003 draft possibly being the best draft class ever, having three from that class significantly increased the top-end talent on the team.
How does that relate to the Sabres this off season?
Buffalo has drafted outside the top-10 dating back to 2004. They have a top-10 pick this year for the first time since 2003 and have two picks in the draft: #8 and #16. Both picks in a deep draft could be top-end anchors as the team rebuilds for the future.
But, sometimes it may be good to be greedy and if it's true that either Ryan Miller or Thomas Vanek are on the trade block, there's no reason that they shouldn't be able to garner another team's 2013 first round pick in the deal (provided they have one.)
It took the LA Kings eight years to tap into the deep 2003 draft and assemble three key pieces to their Championship season. It took some star-alignment as well in that both Richards and Carter were available.
It also took some prime assets to get those two, like Jack Johnson (3rd overall, 2005,) Brayden Schenn (5th overall, 2009,) Wayne Simmons (61st, 2007) and a first round pick (2013.)
In looking at the 2013 draft, even the most pessimistic prognosticator has the top-10 as top-notch and most believe that strength stretches all the way down to the 20th pick or so.
In a worse-case scenario, if two picks in the top-16 are good, two in the top-10 would be even better. In a best-case scenario, if two top-20 picks are good in a deep draft, three is even better.
Move up or load up?
Next: Using the 16th overall pick to get into the top-10
Saturday, June 8, 2013
2013 NHL Draft Part 4--Moving up the ladder, a look at the 4th thru 6th picks
The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we see here, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
In looking at 25 drafts from 1979 to 2003, having a pick in the 7-9 area of the draft wasn't necessarily a bad thing. Hall-of-Famers and All-Stars were there for the pickin' in those slots, especially in deep drafts or those with a strong top-9.
Moving up in the draft obviously increases the odds of landing an impact player (HOF, All-Star.) Just how much will be looked at today.
The #4-6 picks yeild quality in nearly all draft classes.
The Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning had the three worst records in the NHL last season and own the first three picks in the 2013 NHL draft. Seth Jones, Nate MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin had stellar junior seasons displaying superstar/elite talent and it would seem as if those three players will go to those three teams.
The consensus for this year's draft is that the first four or five picks all would garner 1st-overall pick consideration in last year's draft and that as many as eight players could be NHL-ready for the 2012-13 season.
The jury's still out on just how deep this draft is, but even the pessimist believes that there's a "deep top-ten" this year even though they see just an "OK first round."
With obvious strength in the top-three it would be hard to imagine any of those teams moving out of that slot, so it's the 4th thru 6th picks where things can get interesting.
Teams in that range are in various team-building stages and are looking to add an impact player there. They're also in a very good position to move up into the top-three if they have a trading partner, the assets to do so and are willing to make a "knock your socks off" type offer.
Or, if they think they can get the same type of player a few picks lower, they can trade down and get an extra pick.
It depends upon the team, where they are in their team-building process and how the previous season unfolded.
Teams in that range might be solid and consistent team like Nashville (4th-overall pick) but had an off season. Or they could be like the Calgary Flames (6th) who are in full-fledged rebuild mode.
The Carolina Hurricanes have the fifth pick and they have strength in some areas yet big holes in others.
All three of those teams in the 4-6 spots can find an impact player to fill their need in the draft this year.
Nashville needs scoring. Alexsander Barkov, considered by some as a top-three talent this year, is a big center who can put the puck in the net and will be there at #4 unless one of the top-three drop. In any scenario the Preds will be getting an impact player who's NHL-ready if they stay put.
If Carolina wants impact on defense, one of three d-men will be there for the taking. Or if they want a power forward on the wing, Valeri Nichushkin, who's also said to be NHL-ready, should be available.
And as Calgary begins their rebuild, there will be a number of players to chose from at #6 including big, highly regarded centerman, Sean Monahan, "the forgotten man," according to The Red Line Report's Kyle Woodlief (USA Today.)
Those picks in the 4-6 range have routinely provided an elite/impact player with significant upside, especially in a deep draft.
In the five drafts we've focused upon (1979, 2003, 1983, 1988, 1990) those 15 picks in the 4-6 range yeilded two HOF'ers (Mike Gartner, 1979; Steve Yzerman, 1983,) one sure fire HOF'er (Jaromir Jagr 1990,) and six All-Stars.
Only one year--1988--would be considered a bust in that draft range with Darrin Shannon (#4, Pitt) playing more than 500 NHL games (506.).
The chances of landing an impact player (HOF'er, All-Star) is 60%.
Additionally, between 1979 and 2003 that 4-6 range yeilded four more HOF'ers: Larry Murphy, Paul Coffey (1980,) Ron Francis (1981,) Scott Stevens (1982) and one future HOF'er in Peter Forsberg (1991.)
All totaled, those 25 draft years from 1979 to 2003 yeilded six HOF'ers plus 20 All-Stars to date for a total of 26 impact players in the 4-6 range. A 35% chance overall for a team to land an impact player in those spots.
Comparing the 4-6 range with the 7-9 picks, both ranges yeilded a 60% chance of landing an impact player in the five drafts encapsulated in this series.
The odds of landing an impact player overall using the 1979-2003 draft classes increase from 24% in the 7-9 range to 35% in the 4-6 range.
Maybe because of that, most teams retain those picks.
Looking at those 25 years, the 4-6 pick has changed hands seven times-1980, 1981, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002--or 9% of the time.
Recent draft history shows even a lesser chance of a team moving out of the 4-6 slots. From 2004-2012 those picks have changed hands twice--2004 and 2008--or 7% of the time.
For the Sabres and GM Darcy Regier, chances are that the 1-4 spots this year are off limits, a severe overpayment will be necessary to move into the 5 and 6 slots, and the 8th pick should be just as good as the 7th pick.
Which means that Buffalo will probably start the 2013 draft with #8. And even though the 8th pick normally doesn't produce a superstar, elite talent can be had there. That pick, along with a second first rounder (#16,) should add two significant pieces to the Sabres "new core."
Two is good, but adding a third 1st-round pick in this year's draft might even be better.
Next: The LA Kings model
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we see here, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
In looking at 25 drafts from 1979 to 2003, having a pick in the 7-9 area of the draft wasn't necessarily a bad thing. Hall-of-Famers and All-Stars were there for the pickin' in those slots, especially in deep drafts or those with a strong top-9.
Moving up in the draft obviously increases the odds of landing an impact player (HOF, All-Star.) Just how much will be looked at today.
The #4-6 picks yeild quality in nearly all draft classes.
The Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning had the three worst records in the NHL last season and own the first three picks in the 2013 NHL draft. Seth Jones, Nate MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin had stellar junior seasons displaying superstar/elite talent and it would seem as if those three players will go to those three teams.
The consensus for this year's draft is that the first four or five picks all would garner 1st-overall pick consideration in last year's draft and that as many as eight players could be NHL-ready for the 2012-13 season.
The jury's still out on just how deep this draft is, but even the pessimist believes that there's a "deep top-ten" this year even though they see just an "OK first round."
With obvious strength in the top-three it would be hard to imagine any of those teams moving out of that slot, so it's the 4th thru 6th picks where things can get interesting.
Teams in that range are in various team-building stages and are looking to add an impact player there. They're also in a very good position to move up into the top-three if they have a trading partner, the assets to do so and are willing to make a "knock your socks off" type offer.
Or, if they think they can get the same type of player a few picks lower, they can trade down and get an extra pick.
It depends upon the team, where they are in their team-building process and how the previous season unfolded.
Teams in that range might be solid and consistent team like Nashville (4th-overall pick) but had an off season. Or they could be like the Calgary Flames (6th) who are in full-fledged rebuild mode.
The Carolina Hurricanes have the fifth pick and they have strength in some areas yet big holes in others.
All three of those teams in the 4-6 spots can find an impact player to fill their need in the draft this year.
Nashville needs scoring. Alexsander Barkov, considered by some as a top-three talent this year, is a big center who can put the puck in the net and will be there at #4 unless one of the top-three drop. In any scenario the Preds will be getting an impact player who's NHL-ready if they stay put.
If Carolina wants impact on defense, one of three d-men will be there for the taking. Or if they want a power forward on the wing, Valeri Nichushkin, who's also said to be NHL-ready, should be available.
And as Calgary begins their rebuild, there will be a number of players to chose from at #6 including big, highly regarded centerman, Sean Monahan, "the forgotten man," according to The Red Line Report's Kyle Woodlief (USA Today.)
Those picks in the 4-6 range have routinely provided an elite/impact player with significant upside, especially in a deep draft.
In the five drafts we've focused upon (1979, 2003, 1983, 1988, 1990) those 15 picks in the 4-6 range yeilded two HOF'ers (Mike Gartner, 1979; Steve Yzerman, 1983,) one sure fire HOF'er (Jaromir Jagr 1990,) and six All-Stars.
Only one year--1988--would be considered a bust in that draft range with Darrin Shannon (#4, Pitt) playing more than 500 NHL games (506.).
The chances of landing an impact player (HOF'er, All-Star) is 60%.
Additionally, between 1979 and 2003 that 4-6 range yeilded four more HOF'ers: Larry Murphy, Paul Coffey (1980,) Ron Francis (1981,) Scott Stevens (1982) and one future HOF'er in Peter Forsberg (1991.)
All totaled, those 25 draft years from 1979 to 2003 yeilded six HOF'ers plus 20 All-Stars to date for a total of 26 impact players in the 4-6 range. A 35% chance overall for a team to land an impact player in those spots.
Comparing the 4-6 range with the 7-9 picks, both ranges yeilded a 60% chance of landing an impact player in the five drafts encapsulated in this series.
The odds of landing an impact player overall using the 1979-2003 draft classes increase from 24% in the 7-9 range to 35% in the 4-6 range.
Maybe because of that, most teams retain those picks.
Looking at those 25 years, the 4-6 pick has changed hands seven times-1980, 1981, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002--or 9% of the time.
Recent draft history shows even a lesser chance of a team moving out of the 4-6 slots. From 2004-2012 those picks have changed hands twice--2004 and 2008--or 7% of the time.
For the Sabres and GM Darcy Regier, chances are that the 1-4 spots this year are off limits, a severe overpayment will be necessary to move into the 5 and 6 slots, and the 8th pick should be just as good as the 7th pick.
Which means that Buffalo will probably start the 2013 draft with #8. And even though the 8th pick normally doesn't produce a superstar, elite talent can be had there. That pick, along with a second first rounder (#16,) should add two significant pieces to the Sabres "new core."
Two is good, but adding a third 1st-round pick in this year's draft might even be better.
Next: The LA Kings model
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
2013 NHL Draft Part 3--There is quality at #8, dependent upon the class
The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we'll see later, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
In Part-2 of this series we looked at five draft classes over the course of a 25-year period that stood out above the rest. Although varying in depth, one common thread running through them all is quality down to the eighth pick.
If the 2013 draft class is as good as many are saying it is, it puts the Sabres in a decent spot with the opportunity to land an upper-eschlon talent with the eighth overall pick.
A deep draft class could make for a strong pick at #8
It takes a solid scouting departement to land an elite player at 8th overall although having a strong, deep draft class to select from tends to make it a bit easier.
The five drafts encapsulated in the previous installment have produced some impressive picks in and around #8. Looking at the 7-9 picks from those five drafts here's what they offered:
Not too shabby a group.
At #8, and with a draft-class this year that's said to be in the mix with some of the deepest in history, the Sabres should be able to do well in that spot. Using the previously mentioned five draft classes, the Sabres have about a 60% chance of landing an impact player in the eighth spot should they not be able to move up.
Take away depth in draft, though, and the odds of landing an impact player drop considerably.
Looking back historically at the other drafts between 1979 and 2003, there were all-out busts in the #7-9 spots three times: 1989, 1992, 2000.
Three other drafts produced at least one serviceable player: 1980 (Mike Bullard,) 1987 (Luke Richardson,) 1999 (Taylor Pyatt.)
Draft classes with at least two serviceable players include: 1982, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1998.
There have been seven classes with one at least one All-Star coming in picks #7-9 including: 1984 (Shayne Corson,) 1993 (Jason Arnott,) 1995 (Shane Doan,) 1996 (Ruslan Salei,) 1997 (Sergei Samsonov, Nick Boynton,) 2001 (Mike Komiserak) 2002 (Joffrey Lupul)
There were two HOF'ers in that 7-9 range, Grant Fuhr (1981,) and Brian Leetch (1986.)
Twenty draft classes, 60 picks, two HOF'ers, eight All-Stars.
The odds of landing an impact player outside of the "top-five" classes used in this series: 6%.
To encapsulate. The odds of landing an impact player in a deep draft with quality stretching down to at least the 9th pick is 60%. In weaker draft classes that percentage drops to 6%.
All-in-all over the course of all 25 drafts from 1979-2003, the 7th-9th slots have produced four HOF'ers and 14 All-Stars--a 24% chance (18/75) of landing an impact player in those spots.
If the perceived depth of this class holds true, the Sabres should be able to find themselves an impact player with the 8th overall pick.
Many are looking at the top six or seven players this year to be in that "elite" classification which makes the odds of landing an impact player in the 4-6 range this year even higher.
The Sabres are said to be interested in trading up in the draft. Moving into the top-3 would be ideal, but perhaps they may only be able to get to the 4-6 range.
Next: Moving up the ladder, a look at the 4-6 draft slots.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we'll see later, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
In Part-2 of this series we looked at five draft classes over the course of a 25-year period that stood out above the rest. Although varying in depth, one common thread running through them all is quality down to the eighth pick.
If the 2013 draft class is as good as many are saying it is, it puts the Sabres in a decent spot with the opportunity to land an upper-eschlon talent with the eighth overall pick.
A deep draft class could make for a strong pick at #8
It takes a solid scouting departement to land an elite player at 8th overall although having a strong, deep draft class to select from tends to make it a bit easier.
The five drafts encapsulated in the previous installment have produced some impressive picks in and around #8. Looking at the 7-9 picks from those five drafts here's what they offered:
- 1979: HOF Ray Bourque (8th)
- 2003: All-Stars Ryan Suter (7th) and Dion Phaneuf (9th)
- 1983: All-Star Russ Courtnall (7th) and HOF Cam Neely (9th)
- 1988: All-Star Jeremy Roenick (8th) and probable HOF'er Rod Brind'Amour (9th)
- 1990: All-Stars Daryl Sydor (7th) and D Derian Hatcher (8th)
Not too shabby a group.
At #8, and with a draft-class this year that's said to be in the mix with some of the deepest in history, the Sabres should be able to do well in that spot. Using the previously mentioned five draft classes, the Sabres have about a 60% chance of landing an impact player in the eighth spot should they not be able to move up.
Take away depth in draft, though, and the odds of landing an impact player drop considerably.
Looking back historically at the other drafts between 1979 and 2003, there were all-out busts in the #7-9 spots three times: 1989, 1992, 2000.
Three other drafts produced at least one serviceable player: 1980 (Mike Bullard,) 1987 (Luke Richardson,) 1999 (Taylor Pyatt.)
Draft classes with at least two serviceable players include: 1982, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1998.
There have been seven classes with one at least one All-Star coming in picks #7-9 including: 1984 (Shayne Corson,) 1993 (Jason Arnott,) 1995 (Shane Doan,) 1996 (Ruslan Salei,) 1997 (Sergei Samsonov, Nick Boynton,) 2001 (Mike Komiserak) 2002 (Joffrey Lupul)
There were two HOF'ers in that 7-9 range, Grant Fuhr (1981,) and Brian Leetch (1986.)
Twenty draft classes, 60 picks, two HOF'ers, eight All-Stars.
The odds of landing an impact player outside of the "top-five" classes used in this series: 6%.
To encapsulate. The odds of landing an impact player in a deep draft with quality stretching down to at least the 9th pick is 60%. In weaker draft classes that percentage drops to 6%.
All-in-all over the course of all 25 drafts from 1979-2003, the 7th-9th slots have produced four HOF'ers and 14 All-Stars--a 24% chance (18/75) of landing an impact player in those spots.
If the perceived depth of this class holds true, the Sabres should be able to find themselves an impact player with the 8th overall pick.
Many are looking at the top six or seven players this year to be in that "elite" classification which makes the odds of landing an impact player in the 4-6 range this year even higher.
The Sabres are said to be interested in trading up in the draft. Moving into the top-3 would be ideal, but perhaps they may only be able to get to the 4-6 range.
Next: Moving up the ladder, a look at the 4-6 draft slots.
2013 NHL Draft Part 2--Five classes with talent and varying degrees of depth
The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we'll see later, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
In Part-1 of this series we looked at an overview of this years draft class. The consensus is that there is a strong top-three or four, an additional two or three game-changers just below them and quality, top-end talent down to the 10th slot or so.
A potential group of solid NHL'ers stretches into the low-20's while some see a group of solid prospects possibly going into the early part of the third round.
Where will this draft class stack up against the others?
Today: Five draft classes lead by 1979
There are two draft classes that are widely regarded as the best ever--1979 and 2003.
In the 23 years between, there's an array of draft classes ranging from poor (1992, 1994, 1999) to top-heavy (1981, 1985, 1997.)
There was the 1984 draft that featured a "once in a generation player," Mario Lemieux, with a solid group featuring one HOF'er and a decent amount of All-Stars picked after.
Vincent Lecavalier (1998) was clearly the cream of his draft class with a significant drop-off to mostly serviceable players at #2 and below. Wendell Clark (1985) and Chris Phillips (1996) were at the head of a class that lacked stars, yet produced a large group of servicable NHL'ers with long careers.
While comparisons with 2003 abound, it's unlikely that the 2013 draft class will reach that standard and, consequently, will not reach the heights of the 1979 class.
If 2013 is as deep and talented as most say it is, the class will likely be tucked in just below those two.
Opinions vary as to which years come next, but for the sake of historical perspective, we'll be taking a look at the 1983, 1988 and 1990 draft classes chronologically, each of which are characteristically different and at least a notch below 1979 and 2003.
One common thread running through these five drafts is quality down to the eighth spot where Buffalo picks this year.
--1979--
The 1979 draft class is widely considered the best draft class ever for quality and depth as it basically incorporated two classes into one. The NHL lowered the draft age that year from 19 to 18 yrs old.
That class lists three HOF'ers--Mike Gartner (#4 overall,) Ray Bourque (#8) and Michel Goulet (#20)--and boasts 12 All-Stars amongst the 21 players selected in the first round.
First overall selection Rob Ramage lead a list of 11 first round picks who played over 1000 NHL games. Four players had over 1000 points (Gartner, Bourque, Goulet, and #14, Brian Propp) while five scored over 400 goals (Gartner, Bourque, Goulet, Propp and #5 Rick Vaive.)
The first round also included players like Mike Foligno (#3,) Keith Brown (#7,) Laurie Boschman (#9,) Mike Ramsey (#11) and Brad McCrimmon (#15) who had long, productive careers. For posterity sake, Lindy Ruff was drafted by the Sabres with the 32nd pick in 1979.
Duane "Dog" Sutter (#17-overall) made strong contributions to the NY Islander dynasty of the early-80's. He was lucky enough to be drafted by the Isles and has the distinction of winning four Stanley Cups in his first four years in the league. Kevin Lowe (#21) was a cog in Edmonton winning five Stanley Cups in 13 seasons with that franchise.
Oh, and there was some guy named Wayne Gretzky who would have been in the draft via the WHA/NHL merger that year, but instead a deal was made where the Edmonton Oilers kept him and agreed to draft last in every round.
Picks in that 1979 draft also included All-Stars Pelle Lindberg (#35,) Mats Naslund (#37,) Dave Christain (#40,) Dale Hunter (#41,) Neal Broten (#42,) and the Captain's Captain, Mark Messier (#48.)
--2003--
The 2003 draft class may end up surpassing the 1979 class when all's said and done. The players drafted that year are all in their primes right now and are making significant contributions on Stanley Cup winners and contenders.
Of the 32 first round picks, eight already have their names on the Cup: G Marc-Andre Fleury (#1-overall,) C Eric Staal (#2,) Nathan Horton (#3,) Jeff Carter (#11,) Dustin Brown (#13,) Brent Seabrook (#14,) Ryan Getzlaf (#19,) Mike Richards (#24,) and Corey Perry (#28.)
The 2003 class also boasts 16 All-Stars of 30 first round picks including Thomas Vanek (#5,) Milan Michalek (#6,) Ryan Suter (#7,) Dion Phaneuf (#9,) Zach Parise (#17,) Brent Burns (#20,) and Ryan Kesler (#23.)
In the second round, Loui Eriksson (#33) was an All-Star for Dallas, Boston's Patrice Bergeron (#45) has his name on the Cup as the Bruins top-line center, and Nashville's All-Star defenseman Shea Weber (#49) is considered one of the best defensemen in the league.
About the only thing separating 2003 from 1979 is time. Ten years from now, especially with the LA Kings (Brown, Carter and Richards,) the Boston Bruins (Horton and Bergeron) and the Chicago Blackhawks (Seabrook) perenial Cup-favorites, and with Suter, Weber, Perry and Parise as perenial All-Stars, this class has the potential to eclipse the number of HOF'ers from the 1979 class.
--1983--
Although the 1983 lacks the depth of 1979 and 2003, there are three HOF'ers in the top-nine: Pat LaFontaine (#3-overall,) Steve Yzerman (#4,) and Cam Neely (#9.)
The first-overall pick of the draft, Brian Lawton, had a spotty career, but high-school drafteeTom Barrasso (#5) won two Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins and John McLean (#6) was alternate captain with the New Jersey Devils when they won their first Stanley Cup in 1995 and had a long, productive career.
Russ Coutnall (#7) and Dave Gagner (#12) both were All-Stars and had very long careers of 15-plus seasons.
Pound-for-pound, the top-nine has players to rival that of 1979 and 2003, but there's a severe drop-off in talent beyond those nine until you get to the second round. And even then, it's spotty.
The 26th pick in that draft, which would still be in the first round today, was 1995 Conn Smythe winner, Claude Lemieux. Philadelphia's Peter Zezel (#41) would score at a .70 pts/game clip for 15 seasons. Bob Probert (#46) would protect fellow Red Wings (including Yzerman) and Blackhawks for 19 seasons and was an All-Star.
--1988--
The 1988 draft class is top-heavy, like 1983, but stretches one pick farther in depth. It's a stronger group and boasts more 1000-game players (seven) than 1983 (three) in the top-10 picks.
Three players from that draft class will likely make it into the Hall of Fame: Mike Modano (#1-overall,) 2013 HOF-elligible, Rod Brind'Amour (#9) and Teemu Selanne (#10.) A fourth, Jeremy Roenick (#8) scored 513 goals and had 1216 points in 1363 games, albeit without a Stanley Cup ring like the other three.
After Sellane at #10 this draft falls off the edge of a cliff until redemtion is found at the top of the fourth round. Only two made any kind of contribution to the NHL--Tim Taylor (second round, #36) played in nearly 800 NHL games while Steve Heinze (third round, #60) played 694.
Fourth-rounders Mark Recchi (#67) and Rob Blake (#70) both have their names etched on the Cup, with the latter a possible candidate for the HOF. Tony Amonte (#68) was a perennial All-Star from 1997-2001 and scored over 30 goals six years straight (1995-2001) in the "clutch and grab" era of the NHL. He had the misfortune of being traded late in the 1994 season from the eventual Stanley Cup winning NY Rangers.
Pick #70, it should be noted, is in the upper portion of the third round today. Also of note, the Sabres' third-round pick this year will be the 69th.
--1990--
There's a mini-battle as to which draft class is better--1988 or 1990.
Although the first round of the 1990 NHL draft doesn't boast the four potential HOF'ers like 1988, there was a lot of depth in the first round with a total of nine players playing at least 1000 games.
The 1990 draft also has five All-Stars in the top-eight picks, with one sure-fire HOF'er in Jaromir Jagr (#5-overall.)
Other All-Stars include Owen Nolan (#1,) who played 18 seasons in the league and had the misfortune of being traded early in the season the year the Colorado Avalanche won their first Cup. Keith Primeau (#3) played 15 productive years mainly with Detroit and Philadelphia, unfortunately without a Stanley Cup.
Daryl Sydor (#7) won a Stanley Cup with Dallas while Keith Tkachuk (#19) had a robust, 19-year career amassing over 500 goals and over 1000 assists.
Were it not for injuries and a change in the NHL that left him as a "pylon," 8th overall pick Derian Hatcher, would garner a lot more attention for his leadership and physical play. Sandwiched between fellow bad-asses Scott Stevens and Chris Pronger during his playing days, Hatcher captained the Dallas Stars to the franchise's first Stanley Cup in 1999.
The gem of the draft was Martin Brodeur (#20,) considered one of the best goalies of all time. Brodeur, like Jagr is still playing and will be a sure-fire, first-ballot HOF'er once he completes his stellar career.
Other notables include Felix "The Cat" Potvin (#31) who played 16 years in the league and Doug Weight (#34) who has his name on the Cup as a member of the Carolina Hurricanes.
The 1990 draft class had plenty of quality and depth, although not quite the first-line quality and depth of 2003. In a few years, after HOF elligible players are elected to the hall, this class may end up being veiwed as the third-best behind the 1979 and 2003 draft classes.
.
As mentioned in part 1 of this series, the overall consensus is that the 2013 draft class has a lot of depth with elite/top-end talent stretching as far down as the 10th pick.
Using the five drafts encapsulated above, if this holds true, it would seem as if Buffalo has a good chance of landing a top-end player in the 8th spot should they be unable to trade up.
Next: The 8th-overall picks from 1979 to 2003.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we'll see later, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
In Part-1 of this series we looked at an overview of this years draft class. The consensus is that there is a strong top-three or four, an additional two or three game-changers just below them and quality, top-end talent down to the 10th slot or so.
A potential group of solid NHL'ers stretches into the low-20's while some see a group of solid prospects possibly going into the early part of the third round.
Where will this draft class stack up against the others?
Today: Five draft classes lead by 1979
There are two draft classes that are widely regarded as the best ever--1979 and 2003.
In the 23 years between, there's an array of draft classes ranging from poor (1992, 1994, 1999) to top-heavy (1981, 1985, 1997.)
There was the 1984 draft that featured a "once in a generation player," Mario Lemieux, with a solid group featuring one HOF'er and a decent amount of All-Stars picked after.
Vincent Lecavalier (1998) was clearly the cream of his draft class with a significant drop-off to mostly serviceable players at #2 and below. Wendell Clark (1985) and Chris Phillips (1996) were at the head of a class that lacked stars, yet produced a large group of servicable NHL'ers with long careers.
While comparisons with 2003 abound, it's unlikely that the 2013 draft class will reach that standard and, consequently, will not reach the heights of the 1979 class.
If 2013 is as deep and talented as most say it is, the class will likely be tucked in just below those two.
Opinions vary as to which years come next, but for the sake of historical perspective, we'll be taking a look at the 1983, 1988 and 1990 draft classes chronologically, each of which are characteristically different and at least a notch below 1979 and 2003.
One common thread running through these five drafts is quality down to the eighth spot where Buffalo picks this year.
--1979--
The 1979 draft class is widely considered the best draft class ever for quality and depth as it basically incorporated two classes into one. The NHL lowered the draft age that year from 19 to 18 yrs old.
That class lists three HOF'ers--Mike Gartner (#4 overall,) Ray Bourque (#8) and Michel Goulet (#20)--and boasts 12 All-Stars amongst the 21 players selected in the first round.
First overall selection Rob Ramage lead a list of 11 first round picks who played over 1000 NHL games. Four players had over 1000 points (Gartner, Bourque, Goulet, and #14, Brian Propp) while five scored over 400 goals (Gartner, Bourque, Goulet, Propp and #5 Rick Vaive.)
The first round also included players like Mike Foligno (#3,) Keith Brown (#7,) Laurie Boschman (#9,) Mike Ramsey (#11) and Brad McCrimmon (#15) who had long, productive careers. For posterity sake, Lindy Ruff was drafted by the Sabres with the 32nd pick in 1979.
Duane "Dog" Sutter (#17-overall) made strong contributions to the NY Islander dynasty of the early-80's. He was lucky enough to be drafted by the Isles and has the distinction of winning four Stanley Cups in his first four years in the league. Kevin Lowe (#21) was a cog in Edmonton winning five Stanley Cups in 13 seasons with that franchise.
Oh, and there was some guy named Wayne Gretzky who would have been in the draft via the WHA/NHL merger that year, but instead a deal was made where the Edmonton Oilers kept him and agreed to draft last in every round.
Picks in that 1979 draft also included All-Stars Pelle Lindberg (#35,) Mats Naslund (#37,) Dave Christain (#40,) Dale Hunter (#41,) Neal Broten (#42,) and the Captain's Captain, Mark Messier (#48.)
--2003--
The 2003 draft class may end up surpassing the 1979 class when all's said and done. The players drafted that year are all in their primes right now and are making significant contributions on Stanley Cup winners and contenders.
Of the 32 first round picks, eight already have their names on the Cup: G Marc-Andre Fleury (#1-overall,) C Eric Staal (#2,) Nathan Horton (#3,) Jeff Carter (#11,) Dustin Brown (#13,) Brent Seabrook (#14,) Ryan Getzlaf (#19,) Mike Richards (#24,) and Corey Perry (#28.)
The 2003 class also boasts 16 All-Stars of 30 first round picks including Thomas Vanek (#5,) Milan Michalek (#6,) Ryan Suter (#7,) Dion Phaneuf (#9,) Zach Parise (#17,) Brent Burns (#20,) and Ryan Kesler (#23.)
In the second round, Loui Eriksson (#33) was an All-Star for Dallas, Boston's Patrice Bergeron (#45) has his name on the Cup as the Bruins top-line center, and Nashville's All-Star defenseman Shea Weber (#49) is considered one of the best defensemen in the league.
About the only thing separating 2003 from 1979 is time. Ten years from now, especially with the LA Kings (Brown, Carter and Richards,) the Boston Bruins (Horton and Bergeron) and the Chicago Blackhawks (Seabrook) perenial Cup-favorites, and with Suter, Weber, Perry and Parise as perenial All-Stars, this class has the potential to eclipse the number of HOF'ers from the 1979 class.
--1983--
Although the 1983 lacks the depth of 1979 and 2003, there are three HOF'ers in the top-nine: Pat LaFontaine (#3-overall,) Steve Yzerman (#4,) and Cam Neely (#9.)
The first-overall pick of the draft, Brian Lawton, had a spotty career, but high-school drafteeTom Barrasso (#5) won two Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins and John McLean (#6) was alternate captain with the New Jersey Devils when they won their first Stanley Cup in 1995 and had a long, productive career.
Russ Coutnall (#7) and Dave Gagner (#12) both were All-Stars and had very long careers of 15-plus seasons.
Pound-for-pound, the top-nine has players to rival that of 1979 and 2003, but there's a severe drop-off in talent beyond those nine until you get to the second round. And even then, it's spotty.
The 26th pick in that draft, which would still be in the first round today, was 1995 Conn Smythe winner, Claude Lemieux. Philadelphia's Peter Zezel (#41) would score at a .70 pts/game clip for 15 seasons. Bob Probert (#46) would protect fellow Red Wings (including Yzerman) and Blackhawks for 19 seasons and was an All-Star.
--1988--
The 1988 draft class is top-heavy, like 1983, but stretches one pick farther in depth. It's a stronger group and boasts more 1000-game players (seven) than 1983 (three) in the top-10 picks.
Three players from that draft class will likely make it into the Hall of Fame: Mike Modano (#1-overall,) 2013 HOF-elligible, Rod Brind'Amour (#9) and Teemu Selanne (#10.) A fourth, Jeremy Roenick (#8) scored 513 goals and had 1216 points in 1363 games, albeit without a Stanley Cup ring like the other three.
After Sellane at #10 this draft falls off the edge of a cliff until redemtion is found at the top of the fourth round. Only two made any kind of contribution to the NHL--Tim Taylor (second round, #36) played in nearly 800 NHL games while Steve Heinze (third round, #60) played 694.
Fourth-rounders Mark Recchi (#67) and Rob Blake (#70) both have their names etched on the Cup, with the latter a possible candidate for the HOF. Tony Amonte (#68) was a perennial All-Star from 1997-2001 and scored over 30 goals six years straight (1995-2001) in the "clutch and grab" era of the NHL. He had the misfortune of being traded late in the 1994 season from the eventual Stanley Cup winning NY Rangers.
Pick #70, it should be noted, is in the upper portion of the third round today. Also of note, the Sabres' third-round pick this year will be the 69th.
--1990--
There's a mini-battle as to which draft class is better--1988 or 1990.
Although the first round of the 1990 NHL draft doesn't boast the four potential HOF'ers like 1988, there was a lot of depth in the first round with a total of nine players playing at least 1000 games.
The 1990 draft also has five All-Stars in the top-eight picks, with one sure-fire HOF'er in Jaromir Jagr (#5-overall.)
Other All-Stars include Owen Nolan (#1,) who played 18 seasons in the league and had the misfortune of being traded early in the season the year the Colorado Avalanche won their first Cup. Keith Primeau (#3) played 15 productive years mainly with Detroit and Philadelphia, unfortunately without a Stanley Cup.
Daryl Sydor (#7) won a Stanley Cup with Dallas while Keith Tkachuk (#19) had a robust, 19-year career amassing over 500 goals and over 1000 assists.
Were it not for injuries and a change in the NHL that left him as a "pylon," 8th overall pick Derian Hatcher, would garner a lot more attention for his leadership and physical play. Sandwiched between fellow bad-asses Scott Stevens and Chris Pronger during his playing days, Hatcher captained the Dallas Stars to the franchise's first Stanley Cup in 1999.
The gem of the draft was Martin Brodeur (#20,) considered one of the best goalies of all time. Brodeur, like Jagr is still playing and will be a sure-fire, first-ballot HOF'er once he completes his stellar career.
Other notables include Felix "The Cat" Potvin (#31) who played 16 years in the league and Doug Weight (#34) who has his name on the Cup as a member of the Carolina Hurricanes.
The 1990 draft class had plenty of quality and depth, although not quite the first-line quality and depth of 2003. In a few years, after HOF elligible players are elected to the hall, this class may end up being veiwed as the third-best behind the 1979 and 2003 draft classes.
.
As mentioned in part 1 of this series, the overall consensus is that the 2013 draft class has a lot of depth with elite/top-end talent stretching as far down as the 10th pick.
Using the five drafts encapsulated above, if this holds true, it would seem as if Buffalo has a good chance of landing a top-end player in the 8th spot should they be unable to trade up.
Next: The 8th-overall picks from 1979 to 2003.
Sunday, June 2, 2013
2013 NHL Draft, Part 1--An overview of this year's draft class
The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we'll see later, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
Part One: The 2013 Draft Class--An overview
Most draft experts and hockey pundits all seem to believe that defenseman Seth Jones will be the top pick in the NHL Draft. Although not considered a runaway choice, Jones has nudged ahead the other top-prospects mainly on the strength of two factors: his overall talent and the needs of the team that has the first selection in this year's draft, the Colorado Avalanche.
Center Aleksander Barkov, who tops Central's International rankings, is rated as a top-2 talent on some boards and there's a chance Barkov could crack the top three at the draft. At the very least he's as strong a #4 as you can get.
The next grouping is a little bit harder to corral, but the #5 to #9 area almost invariably includes LW Valeri Nichushkin, D Darnell Nurse, C Elias Lindholm and C Sean Monahan. There are variations as to where they are slotted, and one or another might be replaced by another prospect, but for the most part those four names appear on nearly every mock draft in the 5-9 grouping.
Below the top-nine is said to be another grouping that will be even more varied. Depth is said to be had as low as #18 with names like fast-rising Bo Horvat, Alexander Wennberg, Hunter Shinkaruk, and goalie Zachary Furcal in that area.
Although many have been saying that the 2013 draft class is deep, often comparing it to the 2003 class, just how deep and what constitutes depth won't be known for years.
Sabres director of amateur scouting, Kevin Devine, at the Draft Combine in Toronto, talked about the class. He called it a deep draft saying that "it probably goes into the low-20's. A team is going to get a very good player and player at 20 may be just as good as a player at 11."
The Sabres currently have the #8 and #16 picks in the first round, and it would seem as if he's pretty confident that they'll be able to land quality players at those two spots.
Corey Pronman of hockeyprospectus.com sees this draft class as a "very strong one, with a fantastic top end, good depth in terms of the top tier of prospects, and quality overall depth."
He has Druoin up top with MacKinnon second and Jones rated third.
His next two tiers are filled with familiar names and he thinks that there are 16 top-end prospects this year as opposed to a normal eight to 10 with "six or seven elite prospects available."
Brian Costello of The Hockey News, though, penned a piece back in February tempering expectations for this group.
He wrote, "Contrary to popular belief, the 2013 draft isn’t nearly as deep as scouts initially projected the past couple of seasons," as he leaned on the opinion of two unamed scouts to back him up.
“The 2013 draft is not as strong or as deep as we first thought,” Costello quotes one scout. “It’s a deep top 10 and an OK first round, but I don’t see a lot of depth."
“The 2013 draft won’t come close to 2003,” another scout said. “Let’s make that clear right now. Take away the first eight or 10 picks and you’re looking at guys who can contribute on the third and fourth lines, not the first line.”
The Calgary Flames have the #6 pick in the draft. Flames assistant GM of player personnel John Weisbrod offered that "There are five or six names, in my mind, that could still conceivably be worthy of first-pick consideration." Weisbrod was with the Boston Bruins organization for the 2011 draft where he witnessed a "two horse race" that year between Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin.
He continues by adding "[I] consider this draft to be a really deep one, and usually what that depth means, is that depth shows up starting in the latter part of round one and carries as far as the middle of round three.
Depth or not, the Buffalo Sabres at #8 are a few slots back of the "potential superstar" area where the top-3 (or 4) are, and may be right at that cut-off point between "elite" and "top-end."
GM Darcy Regier, along with Devine, will have a ton of decisions to make as to that #8 pick. Regier has also stated that he would like to move up in the draft and the team has some trade-package options to shop as well.
The Sabres have veterans Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek entering the final years of their contracts and both could be on the move. Either might be used as "chips" to move up or could possibly be used to secure another first round pick either this year draft or in the future.
The Sabres also have two picks in the second round--again--and may be able to use one or both to move up.
Regardless of whether the Sabres can move up in the draft from the 8th pick, nearly everyone agrees that there are at least six, maybe even seven or eight, blue-chip prospects in this draft with elite/top-end talent possibly stretching to the 10th pick.
Even if the team can't trade up, they're in a good spot, and dependent upon how this draft class shakes out, they could be looking at an impact player with the 8th pick.
A lot depends upon the draft class.
For this series, we'll be focusing upon the #8 area looking at 25 years of drafting between 1979 and 2003--two draft classes that are considered the best ever.
Next: Five draft years including the oft-referenced 2003 draft class and what's considered the greatest draft class ever, 1979.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we'll see later, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
Part One: The 2013 Draft Class--An overview
Most draft experts and hockey pundits all seem to believe that defenseman Seth Jones will be the top pick in the NHL Draft. Although not considered a runaway choice, Jones has nudged ahead the other top-prospects mainly on the strength of two factors: his overall talent and the needs of the team that has the first selection in this year's draft, the Colorado Avalanche.
 |
| MacKinnon (l,) Jones (c,) and Drouin (r) will likely be the top three picks in the 2013 NHL Draft. Their order, though, remains to be seen. |
Central Scouting has Jones perched atop it's final North American Skaters rankings.
Most also agree that C Nate MacKinnon, who ended up atop the International Scouting Services board, and LW Jonathan Drouin, who has been ranked #1-overall this past season at one time or another, round out the top-3. If either were selected #1-overall, especially MacKinnon, not an eye would be batted at the choice.
Center Aleksander Barkov, who tops Central's International rankings, is rated as a top-2 talent on some boards and there's a chance Barkov could crack the top three at the draft. At the very least he's as strong a #4 as you can get.
The next grouping is a little bit harder to corral, but the #5 to #9 area almost invariably includes LW Valeri Nichushkin, D Darnell Nurse, C Elias Lindholm and C Sean Monahan. There are variations as to where they are slotted, and one or another might be replaced by another prospect, but for the most part those four names appear on nearly every mock draft in the 5-9 grouping.
Below the top-nine is said to be another grouping that will be even more varied. Depth is said to be had as low as #18 with names like fast-rising Bo Horvat, Alexander Wennberg, Hunter Shinkaruk, and goalie Zachary Furcal in that area.
Although many have been saying that the 2013 draft class is deep, often comparing it to the 2003 class, just how deep and what constitutes depth won't be known for years.
Sabres director of amateur scouting, Kevin Devine, at the Draft Combine in Toronto, talked about the class. He called it a deep draft saying that "it probably goes into the low-20's. A team is going to get a very good player and player at 20 may be just as good as a player at 11."
The Sabres currently have the #8 and #16 picks in the first round, and it would seem as if he's pretty confident that they'll be able to land quality players at those two spots.
Corey Pronman of hockeyprospectus.com sees this draft class as a "very strong one, with a fantastic top end, good depth in terms of the top tier of prospects, and quality overall depth."
He has Druoin up top with MacKinnon second and Jones rated third.
His next two tiers are filled with familiar names and he thinks that there are 16 top-end prospects this year as opposed to a normal eight to 10 with "six or seven elite prospects available."
Brian Costello of The Hockey News, though, penned a piece back in February tempering expectations for this group.
He wrote, "Contrary to popular belief, the 2013 draft isn’t nearly as deep as scouts initially projected the past couple of seasons," as he leaned on the opinion of two unamed scouts to back him up.
“The 2013 draft is not as strong or as deep as we first thought,” Costello quotes one scout. “It’s a deep top 10 and an OK first round, but I don’t see a lot of depth."
“The 2013 draft won’t come close to 2003,” another scout said. “Let’s make that clear right now. Take away the first eight or 10 picks and you’re looking at guys who can contribute on the third and fourth lines, not the first line.”
The Calgary Flames have the #6 pick in the draft. Flames assistant GM of player personnel John Weisbrod offered that "There are five or six names, in my mind, that could still conceivably be worthy of first-pick consideration." Weisbrod was with the Boston Bruins organization for the 2011 draft where he witnessed a "two horse race" that year between Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin.
He continues by adding "[I] consider this draft to be a really deep one, and usually what that depth means, is that depth shows up starting in the latter part of round one and carries as far as the middle of round three.
Depth or not, the Buffalo Sabres at #8 are a few slots back of the "potential superstar" area where the top-3 (or 4) are, and may be right at that cut-off point between "elite" and "top-end."
GM Darcy Regier, along with Devine, will have a ton of decisions to make as to that #8 pick. Regier has also stated that he would like to move up in the draft and the team has some trade-package options to shop as well.
The Sabres have veterans Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek entering the final years of their contracts and both could be on the move. Either might be used as "chips" to move up or could possibly be used to secure another first round pick either this year draft or in the future.
The Sabres also have two picks in the second round--again--and may be able to use one or both to move up.
Regardless of whether the Sabres can move up in the draft from the 8th pick, nearly everyone agrees that there are at least six, maybe even seven or eight, blue-chip prospects in this draft with elite/top-end talent possibly stretching to the 10th pick.
Even if the team can't trade up, they're in a good spot, and dependent upon how this draft class shakes out, they could be looking at an impact player with the 8th pick.
A lot depends upon the draft class.
For this series, we'll be focusing upon the #8 area looking at 25 years of drafting between 1979 and 2003--two draft classes that are considered the best ever.
Next: Five draft years including the oft-referenced 2003 draft class and what's considered the greatest draft class ever, 1979.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)