Friday, November 27, 2020

Everyone has an opinion on NHL Reverse Retro jerseys...me too

The NHL "Reverse Retro" idea for alternate sweaters debuting this year were meant to capture the "unique and historical moments in each club's history, while refreshing the color and design combination for an all-new presentation," according to the NHL.

So there you have it. Some came out great. Others did not. And, as always, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

The list that follows partially appeared in the comments section of my last blog. Some responses from Sabres buzzards referenced a sweet Colorado Rockies Jersey (with picture) that won't be used by the present Colorado Avalanche club or the city and team where the Rockies moved--the New Jersey Devils. Too bad, because it's awesome. Soon after the Rockies mention, the old Kansas City Scouts sweaters--an Indian atop a horse proudly and steadfastly scanning the terrain before him--was mentioned. It was an iconic sweater in my mind, and one of my all-time favorites. Unfortunately those Scouts sweaters, like the Rockies logo, won't be seen in Kansas City because they don't have a team, or in Colorado, a stop on their way to New Jersey, or in the Garden State, where that franchise eventually landed.

Since we're so intertwined with the New Jersey Devils at this moment, I'll kick off our thumbs up portion of the NHL Reverse Retro jersey review with them. The other two categories are thumbs down and meh. Of note, there's no particular order to any category.


Thumbs up:

--New Jersey Devils: Speak of the Devil(s,) they go with the version they first wore when coming over from Colorado making that sweater jump with that bold green base.

--Chicago Blackhawks: Any sweater that has the chief on it is as iconic as it comes in the NHL and is an immediate winner. And that black? Oh my!

--LA Kings: It's purple. I don't care how many hues of blue you throw at me it's purple...and gold. It's Lakers. It's Los Angeles. It's got the 90's logo and the crown. It's Wayne Gretzky meets Marcel Dionne. What more you can ask for.

--Florida Panthers: They're the "Cats". And that panther coming out of the deep blue (not purple) is headed your way. Anyone can wear this sweater with pride.

--Minnesota Wild: Another of my favorites from back in the day when they were the North Stars. The new bear head logo with inlaid pine trees is solid and the old colors do it justice when melding the two. But where's that big 'N' topped with the North Star. (Give it back, Dallas.)

--Vegas Golden Knights: "Welcome to Excalibur!" The franchise is only a few years old so there's not much retro involved, but those colors and that emblem make me want to joust for the King.

--Edmonton Oilers: These scream "Gretzky!" Back in the day, one could never really appreciate the color combination because the Northland Coliseum lighting didn't do them justice. Now we see what they were supposed to look like.

--New York Rangers: Always dug those Statue of Liberty thirds. Having it on a blue sweater makes it even better.

--Pittsburgh Penguins: There's a lot to be said for simplicity and this retro sweater was simple to begin with. That white background makes it all the more classy.

--Washington Capitals: That screaming, descending Bald Eagle looks even better in red, white and blue and should be a keeper.

--New York Islanders: Sure they didn't do much, and I would love to have seen what they might have done with the Gorton Fisherman logo as it's becoming somewhat of a cult classic. But, Denis Potvin, Billy Smith and Mike Bossy would approve of this sweater while reminiscing about the first of their four consecutive Stanley Cups.




Thumbs down:

--Calgary Flames: It was a strange looking horse to begin with. The flames coming out of it's nostrils comes off as silly. The color scheme is great, but you just can't do much with that image of Blasty (thx for that tidbit, Mark Lazerus of the Athletic.

--St. Louis Blues: That red. Oh my, I was having flashbacks. Just way too much going on.

--Vancouver Canucks: They went from red and blue ('01 alternate jersey) to green and blue but that chest design reminds me of a paisley and stripes combination that never really works. Love the colors, though.

--Columbus Blue Jackets: The logo looks as if it's a Christmas tree, which is great for the holiday season if you're looking for that ugly Christmas sweater.

--Montreal Canadiens: The Habs logo is iconic. One of the greatest in sports and brings me back to the days of playing table-top hockey which always had the Canadians vs. the Maple Leafs. But that blue just swallowed me whole.

--Winnipeg Jets: Never been to Winnipeg, but I've read that it's a pretty dreary place in the winter (which can seem to last forever, like in Western New York where I grew up.) There's a full array of colors are cool, and winter-like, and kind of depressing.

--Boston Bruins: Is there a dimmer switch for that yellow?


Meh:

--Buffalo Sabres: Either bring back the red/black with that logo or leave it be (I prefer the latter as I never liked the butter knives)

--Hartford Whalers/Colorado Avalanche: The Whale and the Nords sweaters are iconic regardless of era, but relevant to the teams today? (If so, bring back the North Star to Minnesota)

--Dallas Stars: Give Minnesota its star back for retro jersey.

--Toronto Maple Leafs: How many variances of a maple leaf can one have?

--Detroit Red Wings: The winged wheel on a washed out jersey really does nothing for me.

--Nashville Predators: It's as retro as can be, I guess. How 'bout goin with an image of Baby Puss (the Flintstones cat) as their alternate logo after all, Anaheim uses a cartoon?

--Anaheim Ducks: Not bothersome, but I always hated the "Mighty Ducks" sweaters during their inception.

--Ottawa Senators: Unexciting.

--Philadelphia Flyers: Solid, but will be looking for them to be skating around in those stupid sweat pants from the Lindros era.

--San Jose Sharks: Logo is great, color scheme not so great with all that grey.

--Tampa Bay Lightning: Yawn. (Yeah, I realize you just won the Stanley Cup)

--Arizona Coyotes: 'Yotes in 6 (sorry for the inside joke)

Rasmus Dahlin could end up being a Buffalo Sabre for next decade

Covid-19 is running rampant throughout the world, but especially in the United States where cases, hospitalizations and deaths are reaching unprecedented levels.

That statement isn't political, it's simply fact.

In addition to this pandemic taking nearly 250,000 American lives (about 1.3 million world wide) as of this writing, which is brutal in and of itself, as well as placing an immense strain on front-line workers, especially in the health care field (among many other things,) the economic engine that has driven the U.S. is beginning to sputter. Although it's unlikely that the U.S. will see a shutdown like we had last spring, the economy is set to slow to a crawl as we try and deal with a pandemic that's getting worse by the day.

That said, there is good news on the horizon as at least one vaccine with a high efficacy rate looks poised to be available within the next two months with more to follow as they finish their trials. 

Those are also facts.

Every aspect of the economy has been effected including the sporting world as major professional leagues have either not allowed fans to attend games (hockey and basketball,) have allowed fans for games late in the playoffs (baseball) or have allowed fans based upon state regulations (football.) And Even the behemoth that is the National Football League, which has more television revenue ($9.5 billion) than over 50 countries (according to worldometer.com,) is feeling the pinch. The 2020 NFL salary cap was $198 million for 2020 and was expected to reach $210 million for 2021, pre-pandemic. Revenue projections for next year, however, plummeted which could have preceded a drop in the 2021 cap to $130 million until the league and the NFL Players Association got together to reach an agreement in July where they would spread out losses over the next three seasons with minimal cap-reduction consequences.

Unlike the NFL, the gold standard of the North American big-four professional sports, the National Hockey League is a gate-driven league and without fans in the seats, they've been getting hit particularly hard by the pandemic. To keep it simple, the 2019-20 NHL salary cap of $81.5 million will be the same this year and will remain the same in 2021-22 before inching upward the following season (if possible.) 

Relatively speaking, that's a big win, especially when you consider that approximately 37% of the NHL's revenue come from the gate (as opposed to 16% for the NFL.)

Many NHL teams will be struggling under the weight of these financial pressures but the Buffalo Sabres may not struggle as much. Were this the mid-latter 2000's we might be singing a different tune as ownership then had a dictate of "just break even," which in the present environment would be impossible. Terry and Kim Pegula, owners of the Sabres since 2011, have stated time and again that they will pump resources into the team and they backed it up with a projected salary expenditure for this season of over $77 million with a team cap-hit that stands at just over $78 million right now, according to CapFriendly. That could change but right now the Pegulas are projecting an image of wanting any dollars to be spent wisely, which includes cutting back certain areas while backing the roster with financial resources.

The assumption here, simply based on the NHL's salary cap projections for the next two seasons, is that there will be a 2020-21 season and that over the course of the next two seasons the NHL will slowly be getting back to a sense of normalcy. They and the NHLPA will need to do some financial juggling and individual teams will need to figure out for themselves how they want to approach these extremely difficult times, but overall there's an optimism here that beginning with the 2022-23 season sports in general, and the NHL in particular, will have begun to regain their financial footing.

Until then, it's not that far-fetched to believe that player's salaries will remain relatively in check and this is particularly good for the Sabres as they have a franchise defenseman in Rasmus Dahlin that will be coming off of his entry-level deal at the end of this season.

Dahlin is still on course to hit his franchise-defenseman designation. Despite some flaws, his impressive display of skating and offensive skills have already been on display as a teenager for the last two seasons and he still has a high ceiling. He's still filling out his 6'3" frame and continuing to gain experience playing against the best players in the world while continuing to show growth and Dahlin has already proven that he's the type of player that any team wouldn't hesitate to sign to a long-term deal.

Prior to the pandemic, there were thoughts being expressed in Sabreland about Dahlin's next deal and whether the team should pursue a short-term deal or dive right into an eight-year, max contract. The opinion here at the time was that of the latter but the pandemic has changed things and it's possible that the Sabres could stretch two deals into a decade-long association.

Dependent upon what kind of season Dahlin has, he and the team might simply come to the conclusion that an eight-year deal is the best way to go with a projected price-tag of anywhere from $6-8 million. Using the high figure, Dahlin's new contract would take him to unrestricted free agency at age 29 at a total of $64 million. Barring anything weird happening while assuming that he continues on his trajectory and NHL revenue will continue to climb post-pandemic, it's not that far-fetched to think that his following contract will see at least a 50-75% increase which would take him to a cap-hit in the $12-14 million range, a figure that might be a little conservative. It's also not that far-fetched to think that his term will be 7-8 years dependent upon who he signs with with that final year coming in his mid-latter 30's.

That's a long way into the future and a lot can happen between now and then. In saying that, Buffalo could very well think (relatively) shorter term now and end up locking Dahlin up for the next decade.

Because of the financial ramifications wrought by the pandemic, the trend right now has been for smaller salaries and generally shorter terms. St. Louis Blues Stanley Cup captain Alex Pietrangelo, was the prime free agent on the market this off season. The defenseman was coming off of a seven-year deal with an average annual value of $6.5 million. Most projected the UFA to sign a long-term deal for at least $9 million in the off season. He signed for just under that at $8.8 million/season. Winger Taylor Hall was the unequivocal best forward on the market and most believed the 2018 league MVP would be signing a long-term deal in the $8-9 million range. He signed a one-year deal with Buffalo for $8 million. 

There's little reason to believe something similar won't happen next season as the league still doesn't know when it can start the 2020-21 season, how long it might be or whether there will be at least some paying customers in the stands.

As we look at Dahlin, the Sabres could go for the short-term deal in the one or two-year range and worry about the long-term deal later. Once again, if everything goes as projected, the team might be able to sign Dahlin to a two-year deal somewhere in the $6 million range while still retaining the rights of the then 23 yr. old defenseman at the end of the 2022-23 season. Circling back to projections made by the NHL, the salary cap at that time may be around $82.5 million, or only $1 million more than the prior three seasons because of the pandemic. 

Following that season, Buffalo and Dahlin could be looking at an eight-year deal, which would probably fall in the $10 million range. At the end of that deal Dahlin would still be in his prime at 31 years of age.

It's a pay me now or pay me later situation leaving the Sabres with this: do they pursue go a max deal now and pay a premium later and hope that he'll re-sign as a UFA? Or is a two-year bridge followed by a max deal in order?

Both scenarios would have been bantered around regardless of the pandemic, but the financial ramifications of Covid-19 make the latter presumably much more team-friendly and they could have their franchise defenseman locked up for 10 years.

Not a bad deal for the team and the defenseman.
































Friday, November 13, 2020

Possible Buffalo Sabres protected list for next year's Seattle expansion draft

The Buffalo Sabres organization was/is in an extremely difficult situation heading into the 2020-21 season. In addition to the effects of Covid-19 and the financial hardships this pandemic has placed on salary structure and the salary cap across the entire National Hockey League, a Buffalo team enduring a nine-year playoff drought has had to try wade through that morass while trying to keep superstar center Jack Eichel engaged as they attempt to execute yet another strategy.

Eichel expressed his dissatisfaction with not being a part of the playoffs very early in this very long off-season and it's weighed on everyone a bit in Sabreland. This is not to say that he's asked for a trade, or even insinuated (as far as we know in either case) that he wants out, but after five seasons of missing the playoffs while playing under his third head coach and into an off season featuring his third general manager, it's not too far-fetched to believe that Eichel may be getting a little antsy as he enters the prime playing years of his career.

Credit to the management team in Buffalo for allaying some of those fears with two temporary moves--the trade for veteran center Eric Staal and the signing of free agent winger Taylor Hall, the 2018 league MVP. However, as of now they're only one-year stop-gaps. During this uncertain time being ruled by the pandemic, Sabres general manger Kevyn Adams, like much of the league, has curbed multi-year contracts in favor of short-term ones that give them flexibility heading into a 2021 off-season that will predate a similar, or possibly worse, 2021-22 season for the league because of the virus.

And if all that Covid entails wasn't enough, Buffalo, like every team in the NHL other than the Vegas Golden Knights, will have another situation to deal with--an expansion draft. 

The city of Seattle, Washington was awarded the league's 32nd franchise and will fill their team--the Kraken--with players  selected in the 2021 expansion draft. Every NHL team, save for Vegas, will give up a player in the draft and will have the opportunity to use one of two formats with which to protect others--7 forwards, 2 defensemen, 1 goalie or 8 skaters, 1 goalie. By the looks of how the Sabres laid their roster out, they'll more than likely be using the 7/2/1 format.

Buffalo is in excellent shape for this expansion draft as they will lose a player that may not be an impact player to Seattle but the question is, which one will it be? For the following exercise as to who Buffalo probably will protect and who they might expose, we'll follow the guidelines of the NHL while using CapFriendly's interactive expansion draft simulator to try and figure out how they'll play it.

The NHL states that, "All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits)." This keeps high-end prospects like center Dylan Cozens and goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen out of the mix.

Firstly, the easiest way to get this process going is through this NHL mandate, "All players with no movement clauses at the time of the draft, and who decline to waive those clauses, must be protected and will be counted toward their team's applicable protection limits." It should be noted that if players waive those clauses, they may be left exposed to the expansion draft.

To their credit, despite management signing some players to long-term deals, former GM's Tim Murray and Jason Botterill, signed only one player to a contract with a no movement clause--winger Jeff Skinner--who will automatically hit the protected list first (unless there's a waiving of said clause.)

Then there are three other important NHL exposure requirements that have been met by Sabres management:

--"One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.

--Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons

--One goalie who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the end of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If a team elects to make a restricted free agent goalie available to meet this requirement, that goalie must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the team's protected list."

In relation to defensemen, Buffalo has two players who are signed through the 2021-22 season:  Rasmus Ristolainen and Colin Miller. All of the remaining players are either signed for the next season only or, in the exclusive case of Lawrence Pilut, a restricted free agent who has been qualified and is yet to be re-signed but whose rights the Sabres still retain. 

When looking at the goaltending situation. Adams signed goalie Dustin Tokarski to a two-year contract on Tuesday. The remaining three goalies are all on one-year deals and like the d-group, we'll re-visit this a little further down after beginning with the forward group.

In addition to Skinner, we'll add Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Victor Olofsson to the protected forward group. Recent additions Staal and Hall will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season and if they remain so, the belief here is that the Kraken may sign them if left unprotected (like any other team may sign a UFA,) but in doing so they will have used up their expansion pick from Buffalo. 

Sabres fans shouldn't worry about Staal being exposed as he'll dictate where he plays (or whether he retires.) Hall is a different story so we'll wait on him, leaving us to pick two more forwards to protect. 

Buffalo re-signed winger Tage Thompson to a three-year deal and it's expected that he'll get every opportunity to further his development at the NHL level. And for as much grief as Casey Mittelstadt has received for his underperforming NHL career to this point, he's still an 8th-overall pick with high-level skills only three years removed from his draft year.

With only one spot remaining, it's the opinion here that either Hall or third year pro Rasmus Asplund, who along with Mittelstadt is waivers-exempt, will fill that seventh spot on the protected list dependent upon what happens with Hall.

The group of regular NHL forwards to be left exposed include Kyle Okposo, Cody Eakin and Zemgus Girgensons, all of whom are signed at least through the 2021-22 season, which fulfills NHL exposure requirements. Center Curtis Lazar, who signed a two-year deal recently, will also be exposed, but the former first-round pick has been yo-yoing between the NHL and American Hockey League with most of his games in the AHL and probably won't be an attractive option by most, if not all, measures.

As we turn our attention to the defensemen, Rasmus Asplund and Henri Jokiharju, both with two years of NHL experience, will be protected by Buffalo leaving only one spot left. There are really only four defensemen left worth noting for the Kraken with two of them, Ristolainen and Miller, having already been mentioned as fulfilling the team exposure requirements.

Right-handed defenseman Brandon Montour is only signed through the end of the 2020-21 season, will be an UFA and may be left unprotected (if he's not traded by then.) He would be free to sign with the Kraken, which isn't really all that far-fetched considering he's still young and has looked like a top-four defenseman in previous seasons.

The other defenseman is rookie Will Borgen who has spent the last two full seasons in Rochester and is waivers-exempt. He may or may not be attractive to Seattle dependent upon how they lay out their draft board.

Buffalo's decision of who to protect on the blue line really seems to comes down to either Ristolainen or Miller and the bet here is that they'll protect Ristolainen.

Because the Sabres signed Tokarski through the 2021-22 season, they met that league requirement but he won't be protected. Neither will Buffalo goalie Carter Hutton, leaving one of two goalies left to protect--projected starter Linus Ullmark, who will be a UFA at the end of the season, or Jonas Johansson, who will be a RFA at season's end.

This is a tough call and will be wholly dependent upon what happens goalie-wise this off season and what kind of years Ullmark and Johansson have in net. Luukkonen has been deemed the goalie of the future but how far into the future that might happen, if it happens at all, is yet to be determined. Having said that, we're going to put a no-call on this one as there are too many determining factors.



Projected Sabres expansion draft protection list

Forwards

Jeff Skinner (NMC)
Jack Eichel
Sam Reinhart 
Victor Olofsson 
Tage Thompson 
Casey Mittelstadt
Taylor Hall or Rasmus Asplund

Defensemen

Rasmus Dahlin
Henri Jokiharju
Rasmus Ristolainen

Goalie

Linus Ullmark/Jonas Johansson

Former Sabres dot the 2020 Stanley Cup semi-finals

Nearly every National Hockey League team can lay claim to former players in the NHL's 'final four," and Buffalo is no different. However, the Sabres have the dubious distinction of trading away a player in center Ryan O'Reilly who ended up being a 2019 Conn Smythe winner for playoff MVP while helping to lead the St. Louis Blues to their first-ever Stanley Cup. O'Reilly also won the Selke Trophy for best two-way forward in 2018-19 while the Sabres were extending their playoff drought to eight seasons.

Egg meat face.

It happened. And there's no sense in re-hashing the details as that horse has been beaten to the point of cremation. Yet, as we move along in the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs, there's another player from former Tim Murray's "young-vet" group of acquisitions that is helping power his team to possibly their first Stanley Cup.

Murray took over as Sabres general manager, made sure the Sabres finished dead last in 2015 (guaranteeing either Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel in the Blue and Gold,) and went for a quick rebuild after gutting the entire organization of talent. The process ended up setting Buffalo back years and the organization still hasn't fully recovered. While the Sabres are stuck in the bottom third of the league, closing in on an NHL playoff drought-tying record, some of the players Murray counted on to speed up the rebuild process have advanced with their teams.

The 2015 NHL Draft was a whirlwind of activity for the Sabres as not only were they planning on drafting Eichel second-overall, but also had Murray working the phones and pulling off trades for O'Reilly from the Colorado Avalanche and goalie Robin Lehner from his former team, the Ottawa Senators. 

Lehner actually kicked off the day for the Sabres as Buffalo traded the 21st-overall pick for a 23 yr. old goalie who was caught up in a three-way battle to man the crease in Ottawa. Murray called Lehner "high-end competitive" and believed he would become "a No. 1 starter...on a good team, on a contending team, on a playoff team."

True words, but not in Buffalo where he went 42-61-22 with a 2.77 goals-against average and .916 save percentage before the Sabres. It was a tumultuous time in Buffalo as not only was Lehner battling inconsistencies in front of him on the ice, but he was also, as we would come to find out after the Sabres let him walk in 2018, battling debilitating demons within. He finally landed with the Vegas Golden Knights after a 2018-19 season with the New York Islanders and a partial 2019-20 season with the Chicago Blackhawks who traded him to Toronto before the Leafs moved him to Vegas. Lehner would win the trust of Golden Knights head coach Peter DeBoer in the playoffs and wrestled the starters job away from three-time Cup-winner, Marc-Andre Fleury and just led Vegas to a Game-7 shutout win over the Vancouver Canucks last night. He heads to the semis with an 8-4-0 playoff record, a 1.99 GAA, .918 sv% and three shutouts.

Was Murray right in trading for O'Reilly and Lehner back in 2015? Yes and no. Right players (albeit a a premium,) bad timing might be the best way to look at it.

Another Murray-trade that turned out poorly was trading defenseman Brayden McNabb (2009, 66th-overall,) along with two second-round picks and F, Jonathan Parker to the L.A. Kings for Nicolas Deslauriers and prospect Hudson Fasching, whom he acquired as "heavies" for the team. Although this wasn't a direct egg-in-the-face trade, embarrassment came later. The Kings left McNabb exposed to the 2018 NHL expansion draft, the Knight's plucked him and McNabb has been a mainstay on their top-pairing displaying definitive chemistry with top Vegas d-man Nate Schmidt.

Another member of Vegas who was once in the Sabres organization is forward William Carrier, whom Buffalo left unprotected at the expansion draft. New GM Jason Botterill made a deal with Vegas GM George McPhee sending a 6th round pick to Vegas to protect goalie Linus Ullmark. McPhee took that pick and Carrier who has now played in 162 regular season and 32 playoff games over three seasons for the Golden Knights.

Carrier and Vegas recently agreed to a 4yr./$5.6 million contract extension.

Staying out west, the veteran laden Dallas Stars will take on Vegas with two former Sabres patrolling the blueline in lesser roles. 

Defenseman Andrej Sekera was a 2004, third-round pick of Buffalo and at 34 yrs. old is doing that journeyman thing. Sekera left Buffalo after the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season and has had stints in Carolina, Toronto, Los Angeles, Edmonton and now Dallas. The Stars have him in a lower-pairing role with heavy penalty killing duties. As a player who was much maligned in Buffalo by a fan-base that over-emphasized his short-comings while de-emphasizing his positive qualities, it would bring this writer some pleasure seeing him skate around the ice with the Cup in his hands.

Taylor Fedun is another former Sabres d-man playing for Dallas. The undrafted free agent initially signed with the Edmonton Oilers out of Princeton University, and played for the San Jose Sharks and Vancouver Canucks before landing in Buffalo in 2016. Botterill traded Fedun to the Stars in November, 2018 where he's been contributing as expected in a reserve role.

The NY Islanders have no former Sabres on their team as they head to the Eastern Conference Championship series but their opponent, the Tampa Bay Lightning do.

Defenseman Zach Bogosian was another young-vet, Murray acquisition and though he wasn't the primary piece received in a blockbuster deal with the Winnipeg Jets in 2015 (winger Evander Kane was the key player,) he was expected to, at the very least, be a top-four defenseman who would be with Buffalo a long time while Murray worked young players through the system.

Bogosian was in Buffalo for a relatively long time, six years, but only played in 243 games for the Sabres due to a rash of injuries that hit like clockwork on a yearly basis. The former first round pick (2008, third-overall) was drafted as a big, gritty defenseman with excellent skating and some real good offensive touch but little of that showed in Buffalo as he was either playing injured, on injured reserve or recovering from injuries. Eventually it came to the point where the Sabres wanted to trade him, but his $5.14 cap-hit made him immovable. 

When he came back from his latest injury, head coach Ralph Krueger gave him a shot and made him a healthy scratch (for the first time in the defenseman's career) prompting Bogosian asked for a trade. With no takers the 29 yr. old was waived, failed to report and was given his unconditional release. Bogosian hooked up with the Lightning on an NHL-minimum salary.

Like O'Reilly before him, Bogosian walked into a situation where the team was set and he had his defined role within that setup and he's performed well with nearly all of his advanced metrics either at the top amongst Tampa Bay defensemen or in top-three.

Odds are that at least one former Sabre will be skating around with a big smile on his face while lofting the Stanley Cup high above his head. Which one will it be?

We shall see.











What was the process used to select high-scoring winger Jack Quinn 8th-overall?

If you've followed the Buffalo Sabres the past decade you had to know that this was a possibility. After a long seven-month off season due to the pandemic and Buffalo's failure to make the expanded playoffs, new Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams stepped up in a virtual setting and made his selection for the 8th-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, RW Jack Quinn of the Ottawa 67's.

Quinn was second in the Canadian Hockey League in scoring with 52 goals in 62 games after scoring just 12 goals in 61 games the previous season. The 19 yr. old with a wicked wrist shot scored in many ways and in all situations (5v5, powerplay, shorthanded) while finding those soft spots around the net. At 6'0" 176 lbs. Quinn has a projectable frame and if he continues to put in the work, which he has diligently done recently, he should be physically ready to begin his NHL journey next fall.

Most were aware of Quinn's meteoric rise last season and he was considered a mid to upper-mid first round pick at the draft. That Buffalo took him at No. 8 was a surprise in most circles and was met with mixed emotions in Sabreland and beyond.

With the board unfolding the way it did as two defensemen were taken top-six, the Sabres were looking at selecting a very nice player at No. 8 including the possibility of drafting two centers--Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti--who many believed would be gone by the time Buffalo made their pick. After the New Jersey Devils selected a sniper in winger Alexander Holtz, it seemed as if Sabreland was facing a simple situation of taking sides between Rossi and Perfetti with neither really being a bad pick. When Adams selected Quinn, Sabreland devolved into two different groups of those who got that sinking feeling and those who were on the side of hope that the new GM had done well.

Quinn is "a pure sniper" according to Kyle Woodlief, chief scout and publisher of the Red Line Report, a premier draft guide. In his analysis of Buffalo's pick for USA Today Woodlief called Quinn an "aggressive winger...[who] has a knack for sifting through the wash and winding up in dangerous scoring territory without being noticed." 

Corey Pronman of The Athletic had Quinn rated 16th amongst prospects writing that although he didn't call him "an elite sniper, Quinn is just super skilled and smart player who scored a lot of goals around that net." Pronman nailed it in his final mock draft where he had the Sabres selecting him. "Trying to figure out the Sabres has been tough with the moving pieces from new management coming in," he wrote, "but the two names I've heard most are the two Ottawa forwards in Quinn and Rossi. I've been hearing Quinn more often now and think he could be the pick."

Which makes a lot of sense. Most thought Rossi, who led the CHL with 120 points (39+81) in 56 games would be off the board when the Sabres picked so leaning towards Quinn was a matter of elimination. What caused Adams to take the second best player on that 67's team?

"Jack's a Sabre," said Adams right off the bat in a Zoom call after the first round and he went on to credit his scouting staff with giving him insight into Quinn's entire game. "[It's] not just the goal scoring," said Adams, "his overall game kept showing through as we did the work. We see the ability for him to keep getting better, his athleticism is high and just the metrics we use scouting he met, and then some."

When asked what he meant by "Jack's a Sabre" Adams said "he was looking for certain characteristics, whether it's on the ice and the process they use to get their results. You're talking about the competitiveness, the athleticism, some of the measurables...when you package it all together, we felt he was a Sabre."

Whatever those measurables were, the analytical side of the equation didn't seem to be foremost in Adams' thoughts. Jeremiah Crowe was promoted by Adams three months ago to be the head scout of the pro and amateur departments in Buffalo. In an interview posted on the Sabres website the 34 yr. old Crowe called it "a unique opportunity knowing what's been laid out by Kevyn's vision...the buzzwords being analytics, video and scouting." 

We didn't really hear Adams mention anything from an analytics standpoint last night. Instead he offered up a general thoughts on numbers, which is somewhat expected as no GM will get into specifics. As the call unfolded he seemed to focus on Quinn's journey as a determining factor along with his goal-scoring prowess and all around play. Adams said he "really dug in with his scouts to understand [Quinn's] path" which is one of a dogged determination to get to this point. That path included being cut numerous times in triple-A and also his rookie season in the OHL. Quinn had never worked out in the summers as a 15 or 16 yr. old opting to play competitive golf and other sports, but once he got with a trainer, his path to the draft ramped up.

"We interviewed him and he had a lot of interesting answers to the questions I personally asked him," said Adams of Quinn. "He has a really good self-awareness of who he is as a player and he also has a determination in that I see him getting better and better. He's got that growth-mindset kind of mentality where you can see he wants to get better and he was upset when he was younger that he didn't feel he was where he wanted to be as a hockey player. Then he started doing thing to help him improve. To me you see that trajectory, that arc.

"He's got a big ceiling."

On the call Adams seemed to bypass what he's been preaching the last seven months. From what he conveyed during the Zoom call, this didn't seem as if it was an analytics-driven pick and from just looking at comparative stats from Rossi and Quinn, two players on the same team, it looks like a reach as they seemed to have bypassed a "best player available" approach and drafted for a position of need. How much of a reach, if it is at all, is to be determined.

Quinn seems like a really good player with plenty of upside and no doubt Buffalo could use some scoring on the wing. In my mock I surmised that they'd select Holtz with the eighth-overall ahead of Perfetti. It will be a couple years, at least, before we see how Adams' first draft pick unfolds and both sides of the Quinn pick have legit arguments as to why or why not this was the best pick for the Buffalo Sabres. The initial reaction here that of disbelief enveloped in that sinking feeling. And to repeat, it's not that Quinn is a bad prospect, but when a fan base has been subjected to mismanagement for years, they have every right to feel skeptical when a consensus mid-first round pick gets taken at No. 8 ahead of two consensus top-six picks, one being his own teammate who led the CHL in scoring. Having said that I, like 99.9% of those reading this don't have access to the information the Sabres scouting department has, so this writer defers.




Are the Buffalo Sabres finished this off season?

Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams took care of three restricted free agents with arbitration rights before their respective hearings. The team announced that they re-signed right wing Sam Reinhart and goalie Linus Ullmark to one-year deals on Sunday and earlier today the Sabres announced that winger Victor Olofsson signed a two-year deal with the club. Buffalo still has two more players in center Casey Mittelstadt and defenseman Lawrence Pilut who were tendered qualifying offers but remain unsigned. 

It's an uncertain time for the National Hockey League and it's players as Covid-19 is still shrouds the immediate and near-term future of the league. The NHL has already laid out a scenario where the cap-ceiling will remain at $81.5 million for this season and next with a potential $1 million increase for the 2022-23 season and in doing so has created a salary structure conundrum for players and teams. 

Very few long-term deals have been reached this off season with the Sabres opting for one, two and three-year deals for 14 players leaving only 10 players signed through next season. Their biggest, most stunning signing was former NHL MVP Taylor Hall who signed a 1yr./$8 million deal with the club on October 12. In all Adams and the Sabres re-signed four of their restricted free-agents to one-year deals including Reinhart, who will still be an RFA next season. "I think every player in the times right now would be open to a long-term deal," said the 24 yr. old when asked if a one year deal was right for these uncertain times. "Unfortunately that's not always the case, it's not always available."

Reinhart is on his third contract with Buffalo since signing his entry-level deal in 2014 (with a one-year slide that season) and said on the Zoom call this morning that he's "certainly comfortable playing on short-term deals like I always have."

Indeed. Reinhart has outplayed his contract every season as he's consistently gone from a 23-goal/42-point rookie campaign to a 22-goal/65-point season in 2018-19. Last year his 22 goals and 50 points in 69 games projected out to 26 goals and 59 points for a full 82-game season.

Having Reinhart in the fold means five of Buffalo's top-six forwards are in place and with the two-year contract extension signed by Victor Olofsson this morning, it puts their projected forward group at 12 players without Mittelstadt or promising forward Rasmus Asplund, both of whom are waivers-exempt or 19 yr. old Dylan Cozens who seems to be on the cusp of an NHL spot.

Re-signing defenseman Brandon Montour filled out their defense although it's still weighted to the right as they have five right-handed defensemen and only two lefties signed. Pilut is a left-handed d-man and the Sabres still own his rights, however he's under contract in the KHL and shouldn't be counted on, at least at this point, to be an add on defense. 

Adams filled out his crease by re-signing Linus Ullmark to a one-year deal. Ullmark showed some real promise as a starter last season before going down with an injury. In his only game post-injury/pre-Covid, he defeated the Washington Capitals for the first time in his career with a 3-2 shootout win. The 27 yr. old will be an unrestricted free agent at season's end and he could end up anywhere, including the Pacific Northwest where the Seattle Kraken could take him in the expansion draft. 

It's a situation that isn't likely as he and the organization have been together through every step of his professional career including three years in his native Sweden, an emergency call-up/split season in 2015-16, two full seasons in Rochester after and two full seasons with the Sabres. Ullmark split duties in 2018-19 with Carter Hutton the starter and last season he took over the starters role after Hutton stumbled miserably. 

Ullmark's one-year deal looks like a "prove-it" contract and it's something he just rolls with. The affable net minder shrugged it off saying that he always needs to prove his worth in goal. The experience of being dubbed the starter last season laid the foundation for him manning the crease in the same role this season. As he dealt with the fast pace and accurate shooting these past two seasons with the club, he gained valuable experience which allows him to "read and react in a more natural way because experience build on itself.

"Experience makes a huge difference for a goaltender," he continued, "everything I do every day is helping me take the next step."

He also alluded to the talent Adams brought in that will help him at practice. "Doing the repetitions and movements at full speed against better and better players is certainly helping  me to act in a natural way and not a fabricated way. 

With all but Mittelstadt and Pilut signed, the Sabres have a full roster right now and will head coach Ralph Krueger enters the 2020-21 season with more firepower up top thanks to the signing of Hall. Reinhart praised Krueger for his approach saying this morning, "just the level of honesty and the communication he has is something that every player wants to play under.

"I think that's a big part of why you see these players wanting to come here right now and I truly believe it's because of the kind of person he is and how bad players want to play for him."

Unless Adams and Krueger have something else up their sleeves, the Sabres roster for this season looks complete. The recent signings have the Sabres with a projected cap hit, according to CapFriendly, of just a smidge over $78 million dollars and when looking at that figure we also need to keep in mind that they'll be carrying overages from last season totaling just under $1.5 million which means they really only have $2 million in cap space. And that doesn't include any potential performance bonuses for this season so if they're so inclined to upgrade anywhere, it will need to be a money-in/money-out scenario.

Without any changes, this is what the roster could look like at the start of the 2020-21 NHL season (whenever that is):


Forwards

Taylor Hall - Jack Eichel - Sam Reinhart

Jeff Skinner - Eric Staal - Tage Thompson

Victor Olofsson - Cody Eakin - Kyle Okposo

Zemgus Girgensons - Curtis Lazar - Tobias Reider


With Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Asplund and possibly C.J. Smith vying for roster spots.


Defense

Rasmus Dahlin - Colin Miller

Jake McCabe - Rasmus Ristolianen

Brandon Montour - Henri Jokiharju


With Matt Irwin, rookie Will Borgen and possibly Lawrence Pilut vying for spots on defense


Goaltenders

Linus Ullmark

Carter Hutton