Where's the bottom for this Buffalo Sabres franchise?

In 1956 the New York Football Giants won the NFL Championship and for five of the next six seasons they made it to the NFL championship game only to lose. Regardless of that fact the Giants were considered a model franchise but after their 14-10 loss to the Chicago Bears in the 1963 championship game, New York went 17 consecutive seasons without making the playoffs and got progressively worse (4-23-1 in 1973 and '74 combined) before stagnating well below the .500 mark until the 80's.

Football fans largely ignored the Giants and in a pre-ESPN era where game highlights were mainly shown via local news broadcasts and in Sunday pre-game or halftime shows (think Monday Night Football with a national audience,) out of sight, out of mind. As the New York football Giants continued floundering through another lost season, just when you thought it couldn't get worse, it did. On November 19, 1978 with New York up 17-12 over the Philadelphia Eagles late in the game, the 'brain'-trust on the sideline scoffed at the thought of kneeling to run out the clock and 'boldly' decided to run a complicated play. Quarterback Joe Pisarcik's handoff to Larry Csonka was flubbed and Eagles cornerback Herm Edwards scooped up the fumble for the winning touchdown.

Why this story in a blog about the Buffalo Sabres?

It's about finding the bottom.

Not built for a rugged MassMutual East division

From the get-go we knew here that this was going to be a very difficult season for the Buffalo Sabres as they were moved into a newly formed MassMutual East division in a realignment designed by the league to limit exposure in the world of Covid-19. The Sabres and their Atlantic division foe, the Boston Bruins, were thrown into a group of Metropolitan division heavyweights featuring the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers and NY Islanders. The NY Rangers and New Jersey Devils, both up-and-coming teams with young talent topped by first-overall draft picks, round out the division.

The Sabres have always had trouble with heavyweights, like the Bruins who combine skill, speed, toughness and a relentless pursuit of the puck. They've also struggled against the Capitals, a big, tough team with plenty of top-end skill and a ruggedness up and down the lineup. The Islanders are now presenting everyone with problems. Ever since Barry Trotz, who had coached the Capitals to the 2018 Stanley Cup Championship, took over the reigns on Long Island, his team has featured relentless forechecking and a lock-down defensive system that's harder to penetrate than Fort Knox when they have the lead. And they have some high-end skill that can get them out front as well. 

Philadelphia plays an irritating brand of hockey predicated on sandpaper running through a team that has plenty of speed and skill. The Penguins aren't really a rugged team, but when you have a triumvirate of Hall-of-Famers who led the team to three Stanley Cups in nine years with veritable nobodies riding shotgun, as long as those three are on the ice, they're always a threat to win.

And in come the Buffalo Sabres, a team that hasn't had an identity since 2007 when they were the toast of the league after two consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearances. Since an ignominious '07 off season that will live in infamy, they've been wandering in the wilderness trying to figure out who they are and/or what they want to be. In the last 10 years alone since Terry Pegula bought the team, they went from a general manager seemingly hell-bent on a rugged, west-coast style, to his successor who shunned that and began to build more of a skilled team. Both combined for five years of futility and burned through three coaches with their teams never finishing with more than 81 points in any one season. Oh, and one more thing, this non-descript Sabres team was left to carry a nine-year playoff drought into the toughest division in hockey this season.

Buffalo is not bereft of talent. Captain Jack Eichel had a 2018-19 season that saw him on the threshold of joining some of the best players in the league. Winger Jeff Skinner was fifth in the league in even-strength goals from his 2010-11 rookie season to 2018-19 and had a 40-goal season that year. Right-winger Sam Reinhart was dubbed "The Quiet One" by this writer as he quietly racked up 205 points (87+118) between his rookie campaign and 2018-19, good for second on the team behind Eichel. And this past off-season, new GM Kevyn Adams used the relationship between head coach Ralph Krueger and free agent winger Taylor Hall to lure the 2018 league MVP to Buffalo with a one-year deal.

Despite questions in goal and the reliance upon an unchanged blueline that made many a hardened heart skip a beat last season, most expected this team to play a style that was conducive to scoring. But it hasn't been happening. Other than an impressive 6-1 victory over the Flyers in Game-3 (possibly giving them hubristic, false sense of security,) this group of players has struggled mightily and it doesn't look as if will get any better in a division that has no Ottawa Senators or Detroit Red Wings to beat up on.

Then again, as we delve s bit deeper into the past two seasons, it's really not surprising as collectively the top four Sabres' 2021 offensive roster players haven't done very well versus a combination of Boston, Washington, the NY Islanders, and Philadelphia, four of the toughest teams to play against in the entire NHL.

From 2018-19 through the Covid-shortenened 2019-20 season, the foursome of Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart and Hall (who played for New Jersey and the Arizona Coyotes those two seasons) combined for 189 goals and 450 points in 536 games worth an average of .35 goals/game and .84 points/game. Against their new division foes they've put up similar averages over that time frame with 48 goals and 102 points in 128 games (.38 goals and .80 points per game, respectively.)

However, those numbers took a little dip in 77 games against those four heavyweights of the newly formed East division as they've combined for 19 goals and 52 points or .25 goals/gm and .68 pts/gm, respectively. Also of note, over those two seasons, the Buffalo's top four offensive players have a combined for a minus-73 rating in 536 total games overall but a minus-38 rating in 77 games versus the Bruins, Capitals, Islanders and Flyers (Eichel's minus-5 leads that group.)

Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner and Hall have fared better against Pittsburgh and the Rangers as they were on par with their overall averages. In 38 games against those two teams they have combined for 14 goals (.37/gm) and 28 points (.76/gm) and are a collective plus-1 (Reinhart plus-6.) And they do have one team that they like to play against, New Jersey. Eichel, Reinhart and Skinner (because Hall played for New Jersey most of the time) combined to play in 13 games against the Devils scoring seven goals and 14 points (.54 goals/game and 1.08 points/game.)

On an individual basis, against Boston, Washington, Philadelphia and the NY Islanders, Eichel was able to hold his own with 20 points (9+11) in 20 games, a point/game production just below his 1.10 points/game over that period, but the other three have faltered or failed miserably. 

Hall's two goals in 14 games and Skinner's four goals in 21 games come out to only .14 and .19 goals/game respectively, exactly half of their overall average those two seasons. Reinhart posted .18 goals/game versus .29 and .59 points/game versus .76 overall. And while Eichel remained consistent against all four of those heavyweights, others faltered or failed against some teams in that group.  Skinner had zero points in 21 games against the Bruins, Caps, Flyers and Isles. Reinhart had zero points in five games versus the Isles and only one goal in 12 games against Boston and Philadelphia while Hall was shut out against the Bruins (three games,) had zero goals in three games vs Washington, and two goals in eight games vs. the Islanders and Flyers.

As we look to this year's edition of the Sabres, they sit at 4-6-2 having just lost two in a row against the NY Islanders by a combined 6-1 score, which includes an entire third period in the first game where they went without a shot on goal. That lone goal in the two-game series was scored by Victor Olofsson with Reinhart getting the secondary assist. Here's how it's gone for the team against the rest of the MassMutural East division so far and how Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner and Hall have fared:

Washington 1-2-1

Eichel: 0 goals, 4 assists (1 shootout winner)

Reinhart: 0 goals, 2 assists

Skinner: 0 goals, 1 assist

Hall: 1 goal, 2 assists

Philadelphia 1-1-0

Eichel:  0 goals, 3 assists

Reinhart:  2 goals, 0 assists

Skinner:  0 goals, 0 assists

Hall:  0 goals, 3 assists

NY Rangers 1-0-1

Eichel:  2 goals, 0 assists

Reinhart:  1 goal, 1 assists

Skinner:  0 goals, 0 assists

Hall:  0 goals, 1 assist

NJ Devils 1-1-0

Eichel:  0 goals, 2 assists (1 shootout winner)

Reinhart: 0 goals, 0 assists

Skinner:  0 goals, 0 assists

Hall:  0 goals, 2 assists

Eichel ($10M,) Skinner ($9M,) Hall ($8M) and Reinhart ($5.2M) combine for $32 million in salary for the Sabres while 'leading' the team to a 4-6-2 record. In 12 games they've combined for six goals and 28 points.

And Buffalo has yet to play the division-leading, 10-2-2, Boston Bruins who have given up the third-fewest goals in the league.

What Buffalo's lineup might look like in 2021 w/extra goalie + taxi squad

The National Hockey League is really trying to get things rolling on January 13 and their tentative agreement with the NHL Players Association is a big step in that direction. Yesterday it was announced that plans are in the works for a 56-game season with training camps set to open January 3 for the 24 teams that made the 2020 NHL Playoffs. The seven teams that missed out would open camps on December 31 giving them very little but still very necessary time to shake off nine months of cobwebs. 

That means the Buffalo Sabres can hit the ice on New Year's Eve.

Some other notes via TSN's Frank Seravalli:

--there will be no exhibition games

--the season is tentatively set to end May 8 with the Stanley Cup being awarded the first week in July

--there are still some snags which includes ratification by the NHL Board of Governors and the NHLPA and what will happen with the five Canadian Provinces and any Covid-19 restrictions which will affect the "All-Canadian" division for this season

Also from Servalli, in addition to player escrow and salary deferrals agreed upon by the two sides:

--players may choose to opt out of the 2020-21 season

--no change to the rosters as they will be capped at 23 men with an $81.5 million salary cap

--a maximum of 29 players will be allowed to practice and travel with the club which includes the 23-man roster plus four to six members (number decided by the club) for the team's "taxi squad," which must include a goalie

--taxi squad players will be treated as if they were in the American Hockey League:  they will need to clear waivers to be "sent down" and they will be paid an AHL salary if on a two-way deal

As of now the four divisions remain as laid out pending Canadian decisions on pandemic travel and restrictions. For the Sabres that means a division featuring:  Boston Bruins, New Jersey Devils, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals. And, from Elliotte Friedman this morning on twitter, "playoffs will be top four in each division -- each division produces a champion for the Stanley Cup Semifinal."

That's a huge "ouch!" for the Sabres as they're trying to break a league-long, nine-year playoff drought in what might be the toughest of four divisions.

With that said, hockey's coming and Buffalo will be icing a team and this is what the roster and taxi squad might look like:

Taylor Hall - Jack Eichel - Sam Reinhart

Jeff Skinner - Eric Staal - Dylan Cozens

Victor Olofsson - Cody Eakin - Kyle Okposo

Zemgus Girgensons - Curtis Lazar - Tobias Rieder 

Rasmus Dahlin - Henri Jokiharju

Brandon Montour - Rasmus Ristolainen

Jake McCabe - Henri Jokiharju

Linus Ullmark

Carter Hutton

Those are the 20 givens with training camp and/or waivers-eligibility deciding the other three roster spots and the four to six man taxi squad.

We'll begin filling out the roster with Tage Thompson who is no longer waivers-exempt so he'll be on the 23-man roster and add in Rasmus Asplund who played one and a half seasons in Rochester plus 29 games for the Sabres last year. Asplund also played for Vasteras IK in Sweden's second-tier professional hockey league. Buffalo signed veteran defenseman Matt Irwin to a one-year deal.

The taxi squad will be interesting as the team will probably opt to keep young players in the NHL for proper development. If we start with the mandatory third goalie, the Sabres will probably assign 31 yr. old Dustin Tokarski to the taxi squad. The veteran goalie is on a two-year, two-way deal and should easily clear waivers. That would allow 25 yr. old Jonas Johansson another year in the minors to further develop.

Center Artuu Routsalainen was off to a roaring start for Ilves of Finland's top league, Liiga. The 2019 free agent signee has 27 points (16+11) in only 19 games and should be making a strong push for a roster spot during camp.

Andrew Oglevie is set to begin his third pro season after two partial seasons with the Rochester Americans. The 25 yr. old forward is on a two-way deal and produced 39 points (20+19) in 83 games for the Amerks over two seasons. He is waivers-exempt.

Defenseman Casey Nelson has been in the Sabres organization since he signed a free agent deal coming out of college in 2016. Nelson has played in 151 AHL games and 93 NHL games and is signed to a two-way deal. He will need to clear waivers again.

Buffalo could stop there as they fulfilled NHL requirements and leaving it as so gives them room to expand should a player or two have an impact at training camp.

Many saw 24 yr. old defenseman Will Borgen as set to make a strong push for a roster spot this season. The rugged 6'3" 196 lb. righty has made marked progress in Rochester for two seasons and with a strong camp he could displace Irwin on the roster. And even though Sabreland has counted out forward Casey  Mittlestadt, a good camp and/or a move to the wing could be his ticket to the NHL this season. Mittelstadt came to life in the second half of last season for the Amerks and was showing very good improvement before the season was halted. Having either or both of those two make the roster would be a huge plus for Buffalo.

One final possibility for either a spot on the roster or as a reserve is left wing C.J. Smith who's done yeoman's work since signing with the organization in 2017. Smith most of his time with the Amerks (57 goals and 129 points in 169 games) and didn't look too far out of place in 13 games for the Sabres (2 goals.) With left side in Buffalo is loaded up front, a one-way deal and a probable leadership role in Rochester, Smith may not be in the Sabres plans. However, a strong camp and the fact that he's not waivers exempt could put him in the conversation come January 13.