Monday, June 10, 2013

2013 NHL Draft Part 5--The LA Kings model

The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.

Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we have seen, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.

Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.

The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.




There's not a hockey person on this planet who will disagree that having two superstars on a team dramatically increase the odds of hoisting the Stanley Cup.

Two teams who were bad at the right time and lucky enough to grab elite top-three picks two years running were Pittsburgh and Chicago.

The Penguins actually stunk four years in a row to collect four consecutive top-two picks:  Marc-Andre Fluery (1st overall, 2003,) Evgeni Malkin (2nd, 2004,) Sidney Crosby (1st, 2005) and Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006.)

The Blackhawks managed to land three top-three picks during a stretch of four years:  Cam Barker (3rd, 2004,) Jonathan Toews (3rd, 2006) and Patrick Kane (1st, 2007.)

Both teams hoisted the Cup in the era between lockouts:  Pittsburgh, 2009; Chicago 2010, and both made it to their respective conference championships this year with the Blackhawks advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals beginning on Wednesday.

Prior to the 2013 NHL Draft, the Buffalo Sabres have not had a pick higher than #12 and when it comes to team-building, right now the Sabres are neither the Penguins or the Blackhawks.

But the two other conference finalists this year took different approaches that involved fewer years of "suffering."

The Boston Bruins (2011 Stanley Cup winners) and LA Kings (2012 Stanley Cup winners) both made it to their respective conference finals with the Bruins advancing to meet the Blackhawks for the 2013 Stanley Cup.

The Boston Bruins were built mainly outside of the draft, which is a route that Buffalo will eschew for the time being.

Of their top-nine forwards, only David Krejci (#63, 2004,) Patrice Bergeron, (#45, 2003,) Milan Lucic (#50, 2006) and Brad Marchand (#71, 2006) are homegrown.

The rest of the team was built via trades and free agent acquisitions, including their goaltenders, Tuuka Rask, who was picked up from Toronto in a 2006 trade and 2011 Conn Smythe winner, goalie Tim Thomas, a free agent signing in 2005.

They missed the playoffs the first two seasons after the 2004-05 lockout and had two top-ten picks--Phil Kessel (#5, 2006) and Zach Hamill (#8, 2007.) Both were traded.

The Los Angeles Kings present an interesting model to use as a guide for the Sabres as they rebuild via the draft. Their roster has four top-nine forwards, 2012 Conn Smythe winner--goalie Jonathan Quick--franchise defensman Drew Doughty and emerging defenseman Slava Voynov all drafted by the team.

A look back at how Los Angeles built their Cup-winner, has the Kings making the playoffs three straight seasons beginning in 1999-'00, but never making it past the second round getting bounced in the first round twice.

The next three seasons saw them miss the playoffs, yet the team ended up drafting outside the top-10. Their picks:  Dustin Brown 13th, 2003; Lauri Tukonen 11th, 2004; Anze Kopitar 11th, 2005.

GM Dave Taylor was fired after the 2005-06 season and was replaced by Dean Lombardi who began cleaning house and starting a two year drive to the second worst record in the league in 2007-08.

Lombardi's first pick was outside the top-10--goalie Jonathan Bernier 11th, 2006. While bottoming out the Kings landed two top-five picks in consecutive years:  D Thomas Hickey (4th, 2007) and Doughty (2nd, 2008.)

From there, their ascension to the Stanley Cup began.

To augment his young group of homegrown talent, Lombardi acquired Cup-winners Rob Scuderi and Justin Williams in 2009, along with Willie Mitchell in 2010. They made the playoffs in both those seasons, but were bounced in the first round each time.

With it's homegrown core and a few wily veterans anchoring the team, Lombardi then tapped into the 2003 draft to land two key forwards that would help propel them to the 2012 Cup.

In the 2011 off season, the Kings acquired gritty two-way forward Mike Richards (24th overall, 2003) then traded for sniper (and Richards' friend) Jeff Carter (11th, 2003) in December. Both were drafted by, and played for Philadelphia (with Carter being traded to Columbus in the 2011 off season.)

The Kings had a great mix of skaters in front of goalie Quick with three 2003 first round draft picks at the fore of their Stanley Cup season--Brown, Richards and Carter

Would the Kings have won the Cup without those final pieces, Richards and Carter?

Possibly.

But the fact remains:  with the 2003 draft possibly being the best draft class ever, having three from that class significantly increased the top-end talent on the team.

How does that relate to the Sabres this off season?

Buffalo has drafted outside the top-10 dating back to 2004. They have a top-10 pick this year for the first time since 2003 and have two picks in the draft:  #8 and #16. Both picks in a deep draft could be top-end anchors as the team rebuilds for the future.

But, sometimes it may be good to be greedy and if it's true that either Ryan Miller or Thomas Vanek are on the trade block, there's no reason that they shouldn't be able to garner another team's 2013 first round pick in the deal (provided they have one.)

It took the LA Kings eight years to tap into the deep 2003 draft and assemble three key pieces to their Championship season. It took some star-alignment as well in that both Richards and Carter were available.

It also took some prime assets to get those two, like Jack Johnson (3rd overall, 2005,) Brayden Schenn (5th overall, 2009,) Wayne Simmons (61st, 2007) and a first round pick (2013.)

In looking at the 2013 draft, even the most pessimistic prognosticator has the top-10 as top-notch and most believe that strength stretches all the way down to the 20th pick or so.

In a worse-case scenario, if two picks in the top-16 are good, two in the top-10 would be even better. In a best-case scenario, if two top-20 picks are good in a deep draft, three is even better.

Move up or load up?


Next:  Using the 16th overall pick to get into the top-10

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