Friday, October 7, 2011

2011/12 Season Preview, Part 4--The Prediction

"I loathe making predictions about particular series. I put no stock my own or "expert" predictions because I truly believe that the most knowledgeable piece of hockey wisdom is that the game is unpredictable and all a team can do is try to be as well-stocked and well-prepared as possible."--Bill Meltzer, versus.com
http://www.versus.com/blogs/the-daily-drop/no-upsets-would-be-an-upset/

This...

...is what we're looking at as the Sabres head into the 2011/12 season.

It would seem as if Terry Pegula, Senior Advisor Ken Sawyer and President Ted Black have the same philosophy. Pegula gave the green light to the organization to not only go after talent, but add to the coaching staff and the scouting staff--said Pegula, "there will be no financial mandates on the Buffalo Sabres hockey department."

The hockey world has been focusing on the obvious in their Sabres previews, Pegula let Darcy Regier spend to the point that they had the highest payroll in the league. But before we get to the players on the ice, it should be noted that the Sabres had some changes to the coaching staff behind Lindy Ruff.

Out was long-time Assistant Coach, Brian McCutcheon. In is Kevyn Adams, a former Stanley Cup winner with Carolina. Adams has been working with the players as a player development coach for over a year and has been said to be directly responsible for the successes of Tyler Ennis, Nathan Gerbe and Paul Gaustad. He will join Assistant Coach James Patrick behind the bench.

New to the coaching staff is former Sabres defensman and veteran of 20 NHL seasons, Teppo Numminen. Numminen will be up in the booth communicating directly with Adams during games breaking down the opposition.

Having another coach on the team means more direct interaction with the players. Said Ruff, "We've done a lot of individual work with players, and due to the size of the staff you can spend time now. You can have Teppo spend time with one or two of our defensemen. You can have James Patrick and Kevyn Adams doing the same."

Patrick, Adams and Numminen will be working with a well-stocked team this season thanks to an unprecedented off-season spending spree by Regier.


It Wasn't A "Perfect" Off-Season, But It Was Pretty Damn Solid

All the question marks concerning the Sabres heading into the 2011/12 season revolve around the center position.

Ideally, Regier could've gone out back to the #1-center tree and picked one. And they put in a good bid to hire the services of Brad Richards. But Richards, seemingly, pulled a LeBron James and made a spectacle of a foregone conclusion. In hindsight, there was little doubt he'd be headed to Broadway. Pegula and Regier were rather quick to figure it out and instituted Plan B immediately.

In comes Ville Leino.

Nobody knows what he will bring to the team, but he wants to be in that position, Ruff believes he can at least play, if not excell, there and he'll have a very deep pool of wingers with which to build some chemistry.

The team seems to be three lines deep with talent. Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Drew Stafford and Brad Boyes have all reached the 30-goal mark with Vanek and Boyes scoring over 40. Sophomore Tyler Ennis reached 20 last season while Nathan Gerbe showed he's capable of a 20-goal season.

After finishing 9th in the league last season in goals/game, the team will be looking to score more with the addition of Leino and with Boyes playing a full season for the team on the wing as opposed to center.

An area that will help improve that ranking is the power play. It was also 9th last season. There will be some juggling with the major move being Pomiville down low instead of playing the point. And one of the main reasons he'll be able to move there is the acquisition of defenseman Christian Ehrhoff.


Regier Fills Holes On Defense

A Sabres strength this season could be the emergence of the defense as an even stronger two-way force.

Erhoff has a penchant for finding open ice, whether 5-on-5 or on the power play, and has a deft shot. Tyler Myers seems hell-bent upon attaking as much as he can at any given moment and with Robyn Regehr covering his back, he'll be able to do that more confidently. Add in Marc-Andre Gragnani and his puck-moving skills for a full season, and you have three puck-movers with a big scoring upside. And we haven't even touched upon Jordan Leopold and Andrej Sekera, who are no strangers to putting points up.

That's a total of five defensemen jumping into the rush and acting as a "foruth forward."

This mode of attack doesn't necessarily mean that the team will be a sieve on defense. The top-three of Myers, Regehr and Ehrhoff all are responsible in their own end. Leopold at one point last season lead the team in +/- and Gragnani looks to be pretty solid as well. Mike Weber, who culd be the odd man out early, is very solid as well.

As long as they take care of their job and cut off the back-door play, there will always be Ryan Miller to bail them out.

This year not unlike, the 2009/10 season, Miller will have some solid veteran rear guards taking care of business in their own end which will allow him to get high into the crease and do what he does best, challenge shooters.

Miller can expect a number of odd man rushes this season due to the attack-mode the team will be in on offense. We know he can stop the breakaway and we know he's able to stop the two-on-one, if his defenseman plays it like he should.

With that in mind, it shouldn't be too difficult for the Sabres to significantly improve upon their 18th goals against ranking last season. The defense also looks staunch enough to be able to lift the penalty kill from it's #13 finish last season.


The Prediction

The 2011/12 edition has the talent with which to improve in all areas this season, but what it may come down to is attitdude.

Terry Pegula has given the team it's goal. He's all-in.

Darcy Regier has gone out and filled holes.

Lindy Ruff has the team focusing on a business-like approach to the season.

Now it's up to the players.

While in Mannaheim, Germany playing on a larger ice surface, Ruff told his team to play like it was on an NHL rink. And the players obliged. That's a good sign that everyone is on the same page.

For the Sabres to take the Northeast Division crown away from the Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins, they'll need to make up seven or eight points. And that's within the realm of possibility with this group as long as they remain focused upon this, from Terry Pegula, "Winning is not a goal, it's a belief."

With that being said, I believe they will put together a real good season and expect the Sabres to finish:

1st in the Northeast
3rd in the Eastern Conference

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