On the Robin Lehner trade and why, at worst it may be only a footnote

Reprinted with permission from hockeybuzz.com

What is the cost for a Wayne Gretzky rookie card? Or Mickey Mantle rookie? Or even that of an Evander Kane rookie?

 

The book value is one thing, but the person buying it is the one who will put the true value on it.

 

Much has been made concerning Tim Murray’s wheeling and dealing as Buffalo Sabres GM. He’s been on the job for less than 18 months yet has managed to pull off three blockbuster trades. One of them, the Ryan Miller to St. Louis trade, looked to have already been in the works when he came on board, but the two other ones—Kane/Tyler Myers In February and Ryan O’Reilly at the 2015 NHL draft—were all on him.

 

Both trades done exclusively by Murray ended up looking like hockey trades with both sides ending up pieces that they wanted and/or needed. Can one claim they got the better of the deal? After four months or less the answer is indubitably, no.
 

In the case of the Robin Lehner trade to Buffalo for the 21^st overall pick at the draft, a strong argument can be made that Ottawa took that one, at least short-term, as we’re not sure how the 23 yr. old Lehner will pan out as a starting goalie. Murray was willing to take that chance for a number of reasons which includes needs in goal and plenty of assets at his disposal.

 

Murray went on his judgment when trading for Lehner. He had scouted and drafted the 6'4" 224 lb. goalie and watched him hit the NHL. He knows Lehner better than any other goalie that was on the market at the draft. He wanted Lehner and after his uncle and former boss Bryan Murray stated the 31^st overall pick wasn't good enough, nephew Tim wasn’t going to let a difference of 10 draft slots keep him from getting what he wanted.

Later that day Murray ended up moving the 31st pick to Colorado as a part of the O'Reilly deal and one could conclude the two draft picks dealt that day were always in play currency to be used on both deals regardless of where they went.

 

Short-term, the team moved two draft picks in what's said to be a very deep draft, yet Murray was able use them to bolster his young lineup with two young veterans at two key positions. The tell-tale difference as to whether or not the 21st overall pick was ultimately wasted lies not in whether a longer-term project draft pick succeeds at some level in the NHL (as odds are long that they'll have minimal impact,) rather it might hinge on whether or not the GM and his scouts have the ability replace that lost pick via some other avenue.

This will probably be the last time I bag on the Edmonton Oilers as new GM Peter Chiarelli looks to have his team on the road to becoming an NHL powerhouse. Yes, Connor McDavid, as well as the three other No. 1 overall picks, will be instrumental in that, but they'll have some support via the near-term moves Chiarelli made (D, Griffin Reinhart and Eric Gryba; G, Cam Talbot.) They can also expect more support down the road through better picks in the mid-lower rounds of the draft, an area that the recently dismissed scouting staff had a poor record with.

In contrast to that, Murray "the scout" has a pretty good record of finding NHL players, some who have had an impact at a young age, in every round of the draft. He was with Ottawa as the assistant general manager to his uncle Bryan from 2007-14 before he came to Buffalo and below is a quick view at some of the players he drafted while with Ottawa.
 

After 2007 first round pick (29th overall) Jim O'Brien busted, setting the tone for the rest of that four-pick Senators draft class, Murray and Co. hit on some picks up and down the draft:

2008
Erik Karlsson, 15th--two-time Norris winner
Patrick Weircoch, 42nd--159 NHL games played by the age of 25
Zack Smith, 79th--319 NHL games played
Mark Borowiecki, 179th--84 NHL games played

2009
Jared Cowen, 9th--questionable right now but not in O'Brien territory yet
Jakob Silfverberg, 39th--18 points (4+14) in 16 playoff games for Anaheim last season
Robin Lehner, 46th--86 games played before the age of 24
Mike Hoffaman, 130th--54 points (30+24) in 108 games

2010
Mark Stone, 178th--72 points (30+42) in 103 games played, 2014-15 Calder Trophy finalist

2011
Mika Zibenejad, 6th--200 NHL games played by the age of 22. 43 goals, 57 assists
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 96th--25 points in 87 NHL games

There have also been trades that brought in Bobby Ryan (2005, 2nd overall, ANA) and Kyle Turris (2007, 2nd, PHX) as well as free agent signings like former Sabre Clarke MacArthur and goalie Andrew "The Hamburglar" Hammond.

And last year, four of the players Murray was directly involved with were up for 2014-05 NHL awards:

Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy (Perseverance, Sportsmanship, and Dedication)--Finalist, Andrew Hammond, Ottawa, (2013, FA)

Calder Trophy--Finalist, Mark Stone, Ottawa (2010, 178th-overall)

Norris Trophy--Winner, Erik Karlsson, Ottawa (2008, 15th)

Mark Messier Leadership Award--Finalist, Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim (2003, 19th)

It's a record like that which takes some of the "sting" out of "wasting" the 21st-overall pick on a goalie with question marks.

Equally as important, however, is that Murray still had full coffers despite trading away players and draft picks that totaled six first rounders and three high second rounders in the deals he consummated. From the four-year rebuild era (drafts from 2012-15) they still have four first rounders and six second rounders at their disposal, many of whom look to be impact players at the NHL level.

Standing alone, the Lehner trade looks to be a huge overpayment and it's something that could very well turn sour. But that's the gamble Murray took. He saw value, and even admitted that everyone will say he overpaid even though in his mind he doesn't think he did.

Perhaps it's the confidence he has as an evaluator, perhaps it was the assets he had at his disposal, perhaps he was in love with one of his draft picks. Regardless, in the grand scheme of things, a gamble like that in the Lehner trade, may end up simply being a footnote.