Reprinted with permission from hockeybuzz.com
The Buffalo Sabres head to Sunrise, FL for the 2015 NHL Draft with a loaded cupboard in a few positions. After they (presumably) pick Jack Eichel second-overall, the center position will be top-to-bottom the deepest and most skilled in the system. They have plenty of size and depth on the right side as well as a number of players with top-six potential. Although they have plenty of size and grit on the left side, once you get past the top-two in the organization it gets pretty thin in the skill category. No worries, though, many of the centers they've been drafting since 2012 can easily slide over to the left side.
Behind the blueline the defense-corps is young and talented and although organizational depth has taken a bit of a hit, the procession of quality youngins headed up to the big-club in the near future is rock-solid for the next few years.
The big "worry" for everyone right now seems to be between the pipes as the general consensus is that the Sabres don't have a true NHL starter in their system--from the big club on down. It's a very puzzling notion, worrying about the goaltending situation for a team that has come off of back-to-back last place finishes. Nearly every hockey person has the Sabres in desperate need of goaltengind and will have them sending a first-round pick-plus for some teams back-up and/or will have them reaching for a goalie in the upcoming draft. Yet they'll be doings so knowing full-well that the goaltenders, and knowing where they'll end up during their career can generally be described as the "riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." And drafting one is the crapshoot within the crapshoot know as the entry draft.
Last year we looked at the same scenario whereas the Sabres did not have a true No. 1 goalie at either the NHL or AHL-level. Same holds true once again this year. Murray, when asked about his plans for addressing this weakness, replied in his usual dry, blunt manner by saying, "Find a goalie." How was he going to do that? "The basic plan," he continued, "is we have to get a goalie, that's for sure. It's always a moving plan.
"We would love to trade for a youngish goalie, if that doesn't work we would trade for a real good short-term goalie who's older. We could sign the best or second best free agent goalie. We'd be happy with that too."
Where Murray won't find an immediate help is in the system. None of their goalie prospects have even hit the pro-ranks yet as all are in their early developmental stages. What has many of the pundits somewhat "on edge" when it comes to the future in goal is that none of Linus Ullmark (2012, 163rd-overall,) Cal Petersen, (2013, 129th,) or Jonas Johansson (2014, 61st) have separated themselves from the pack up and it's the reason why many have Buffalo taking a goalie prospect with the 21st-overall pick in this year's draft.
Ironcially enough, the "riddle wrapped in a mystery" quote is from Winston Churchill when addressing "The Russian Enigma" back in October, 1939 with Nazi Germany rolling through Europe and the world on the brink of World War II. And the player that many have the Sabres taking this year at No. 21 is Russian goalie Ilya Samsonov.
Samsonov was rated the 24th best player available in the 2015 Draft by Kris Baker of sabresprospects/sabres.com. Wrote Baker of the 6'4" 203 lb. goalie, "[Samsonov] is a package of size and supreme athleticism in the crease. He’s smooth on his feet with excellent goalie vision and puck tracking skills. Like many modern day goaltenders, Samsonov can look over or under screens as he battles to see the puck through traffic.
"Samsonov cemented his status as the top goaltender in the draft following a sparkling performance at the 2015 IIHF Under-18 World Championship. There, he posted a 2-1 record, a 2.67 goals-against average and a .934 save percentage to earn the Directorate award as the tournament’s top goaltender."
High praises for the Russian have been coming from all over the hockey world leading up to the draft on Friday and most put the Sabres and Samsonov in a 2+2 situation: Buffalo is said to need a top goalie in their system and Samsonov, who has all the earmarks of a starter, will be right there when they're ready to make their second choice in the first round.
Yet, because there are so many question marks with netminders, from the time their drafted to the time teams figure them out, at this stage of the game do we even know what makes a top goalie prospect?
There's no disputing the qualities Samsonov brings to the table and the tournament award is a guidepost, but in looking at that small sample size one should also take note of what two Sabres prospects accomplished at a young age. Ullmark (6'3" 198 lbs.) won the Honken Trophy as SHL Goalie of the Year sporting a strong 2.08 gaa and a stout .931 sv% as a rookie in 2013-14. Petersen (6'1" 182) started for Notre Dame as a freshman in Hockey East last season, which is no small feat, and set an NCAA record for saves in a game with 87 in the longest game in NCAA history. In relation to the accolades thrown Samsonov's way, do those represent the traits of a top goalie prospect?
In addition to the question of "what makes a top goalie prospect?" one should also note Murray's history in drafting goaltenders before we make Samsonov Buffalo's pick at No. 21. In his years with the Anaheim Ducks and the Ottawa Senators, Murray has never been associated with drafting a goalie higher than Robin Lehner (2009, 46th, OTT.) Nor has Murray drafted a Russian higher than 60th in all the drafts he's been associated with outside of his short term as a scout for the NY Rangers.
As a scout all of his life Murray has seen highly rated goalie prospects come and go and has seen lower round picks succeed as often, if not more often, than their first-round counterparts. After over 20 years and dozens of draft picks, one would have to believe the premise is simple for him, something alluded to at the presser, "I am a firm believer in taking a goalie (at the draft,)" he said. "If at all possible you should take a goalie every draft because I think that they're a little more of a wild card than a forward or a defenseman. We've seen guys like [Nashville Predators goalie] Pekka Rinne [who was] an eighth round pick.
"I hate to say this, I think you should throw a dart on a goalie every draft, but I'm not a believer in picking for position."
To those who see Murray as reaching for a goaltender out of a perceived necessity,they should be reminded that he is a firm believer in is taking the best player available and in a deep draft like this one, he may have a few much stronger choices from the group of skaters that should be available at No. 21. Recent history has shown, even in a "middling" draft like 2014, that the league's scouts and GM's prefer to wait until after the first round before "throwing their dart" at a goalie.
Since 2006 when four goalies were taken in the first round, the goalie seems to have gone the way of the NFL's running back in terms of draft importance. In the years since two goalies were taken in the first round in each of 2008, 2010, and 2012 while none were first round picks in 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2014. Nearly all of the action seems to start in the second round.
That's not to say that one or more of Samsonov, Mackenzie Blackwood, or Daniel Vladar--all considered top prospects--won't go in the first round. It's simply stating that odds are against that happening. Add Murray's track record into the equation and odds are that Buffalo will not use pick No. 21 on a goaltender.
The Sabres do have two picks in the second round (Nos. 31 and 51), although none in the third, and there's a good chance that they'll take a goalie there, dependent upon where one might fall on their list.
Buffalo has organizational depth at nearly every position and if you take into consideration the time it takes for a goaltender to develop, one could make a case that they have depth there as well. It's just something that won't show itself for another three years or so. With organizational depth everywhere, Murray has the opportunity to take a chance with that 21st pick. Russian forward Denis Guryanov is the choice here or they could shoot for a player like Jeremey Bracco or Oliver Kylington--both of whom have seen their draft stock plummet--before taking a goaltender.
Regardless of what happens at the draft, overall it doesn't look as if Murray is too worried about the Sabres goaltending situation at this point. And if he's not, neither am I.
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