Reprinted with permission from hockeybuzz.com
Barring a trade for the likes of Ryan O'Reilly, Cam Talbot, Eddie Lack, Logan Couture, or whomever else tweety-bird world has the Buffalo Sabres trading for these days, GM Tim Murray, and his band will hit the BB&T floor in Sunrise, FL with four of the top 51 picks in the NHL entry draft.
Which is a good thing as the 2015 draft is real strong on two fronts. Not only is it most definitely top-heavy--lead by franchise centers Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel--but it's plenty deep. Kyle Woodlief of USA Today and the RedLine Report was on WGR550 yesterday morning drawing some parallels from drafts past. "That draft in 2004 with [Alexander] Ovechkin and [Evgeni] Malkin," he told host Howard Simon, "that was a pretty special group. You look at what those two guys have gone on to achieve in the NHL, they're both two of the top-five forwards on the planet these days. It's tough to get better than a draft like that from the top-two."
"[2015] is a special draft not only because of the top-end, marquis talent," continued Woodlief, "but also the depth of this year's crop. You go back, 2013 was a deep crop, 2003 was a very deep crop and this crop is as deep as we've seen in the past decade. There are players we have ranked in the mid-40's in this year's draft who'd be in the mid-20's on our rankings last year."
So, Sabres fans, how does a franchise center followed by two-picks that in most any other year would be top-20ish sound?
It would be fantastic. Even taking in consideration that the Sabres pipeline is filled with prospects to the point where Murray is once again ready to package assets to move up in the draft, it's never a bad thing to add quality. He's ready to go either way, and, obviously would welcome more depth in the system, but one would think Murray would really itchin' to move up in this year's draft. Just needs to find a dance partner.
We'd already looked into moving into the top-10 and although odds have the idea as more of a pipedream than anything else, it's still fun to think about. Perhaps it's a matter of seeing two players with attributes unlike most any other Sabre in the system right now. Or, maybe, perhaps it's being a bit greedy. But having Pavel Zacha or Ivan Provorov join Eichel atop the Sabres 2015 draft class in and of itself would make for a ridiculously successful draft for Buffalo.
The more realistic possibility is that of moving up to just outside the top-10 for a player like Timo Meier, a budding powerforward who's "skill and undeniable determination can beat you multiple ways, either with finesse or power," said TSN draft analyst Craig Button. In looking at the picks after Meier, invariably we're looking at players with similar projections which makes trading up a questionable use of assets. Why make a move up to 15, for instance, when you can get an equal player at 21?
We've gone through the prospect pool and have found that every position is pretty solid with the center position being the strongest in both skill and sheer numbers. We've also noted that the goaltending situation needs attention, at least for the short-term, but that it's a position that takes the longest to develop and that it's as big a wild card as can be from a scouting/development standpoint. We know that Murray is "a firm believer in taking a goalie every draft," and he used a dart-board analogy to summarize how difficult it is to predict where a goalie will end up in his career, "I hate to say this, I think you should throw a dart on a goalie every draft," he said.
In looking throughout the Sabres system as a whole, they've drafted players with two-way acumen who are very versatile. Nearly all are projected to be high-character players and more than a handful are leaders for their respective clubs. It's a rock-solid foundation with which to build upon.
Which leads to the theme of this year's draft--gambling with house money.
With depth at every position, it wouldn't hurt the organization to take a shot on a prospect who's frowned upon in the scouting community. An example that came to the fore was Russian RW, Denis Guryanov.
Guryanov has top-10 skill and can skate, but the "Russian Factor," as it does every year, has pushed him down the depth chart. The basic premise for most clubs when it comes to Russians is "either one or none." Kris Baker put it to me this way, "some teams don't want two [Russians] as they will build up a wall and block themselves off from the common goal."
Baker mentioned that on WGR550's Schopp and the Bulldog when talking about Murray and Russians. "Murray doesn't particularly have a history, or any kind of track record, of developing Russian hockey players," he told the host. "I'm not saying he's trying to eradicate these [Russians] all together, but there is this thought in NHL circles that you either have one [Russian] or none on your team."
With that said, there's a good possibility that Guryanov will fall to the Sabres at pick No. 21, and what Murray does will be very interesting.
As stated earlier, odds are that Buffalo will be using at least one of their picks Nos. 21, 31 and 51 this weekend. The team is without a third-round pick and they will once again jump into the fray with pick No. 92 in the fourth round. After that they have Nos. 122, 152 and 182.
Normally I'd cut the Buffalo Sabres draft off at their last third round pick, but because they don't have one this year, and because the fourth-rounder's at the top of the round, we'll take the mock draft down to pick No. 92. There are people much better suited to mock what might happen in those late rounds with Baker's sabresprospects.com site as the best place to go for fans of the blue an gold.
So, without much further ado and in looking at picks 21, 31, 51 and 92 this year, we begin the mock.
1st round, Pick 21:
This is one of the picks the Buffalo Sabres received from the NY Islanders in the Thomas Vanek trade. Isles GM Garth Snow opted to keep their 2014 first rounder which he used to select Oshawa Generals LW, Michael Del Colle fifth-overall. It's house money for Buffalo at this point.
Word is out that a pretty good goalie prospect in Ilya Samsonov may be available at No. 21 and that the Sabres might be interested. But we should also keep in mind that Tim Murray has never drafted a goalie higher than Robin Lehner who came off the board at 46th overall in 2009 when he was with the Ottawa Senators.
A popular choice for the Sabres, should he make it is 6'2" 185 lb. left-handed center, Joel Eriksson Ek who's rated as the 4th best European skater by Central Scouting. The quick 411 on "double-E" is that he's a gritty, two-way forward with great stick-work and an elite-level shot who's good on faceoffs. Odds are that he'll be gone before he makes it down to Buffalo, with many looking at him as a perfect fit for Detroit.
Another player of interest who'll probably be off the board by the time it's Buffalo's turn is defenseman Jakub Zboril. He's an average-sized, left-handed shot d-man who's an elite skater and is strong in all three zones. Zboril, will take some time to mature as he just came to North America last season. A potential top-four defender, Zboril would be a good, safe choice for the Sabres here were he to fall to them.
But the player of supreme interest, in my estimation, that the team should take a flyer on (outside of Guryanov) is defenseman Oliver Kylington.
Draft previews from last summer and early fall had Kylington in the top-10/top-five conversation before a tough year has him going no higher than the bottom portion of the first round with some having him drop to the early second. But I'm with TSN's Button. I like the idea of the Sabres going after an elite-skating defenseman with speed, quickness and agility to burn, whom Woodlief called "the best pure skater in the year's crop." There's nothing like him in the system.
Confidence has been Kylington's enemy, according to Button. His play and production have dropped off a bit since he came off a point/game season (5+16 in 21 games) in 2013-14. Kylington could be a project that may take a few years, but patience could pay off immensely. The Sabres have the time, as they won't be challenging for the Cup anytime soon, so continued development in Sweden and a good dose of the Sabres Hockey Academy in the off-season could turn him into a steal with the 21st-overall pick.
2nd round, Pick 31:
The first choice here, regardless of who they pick at 21, might very well be USA forward Jeremy Bracco if he drops this far down. The 5' 10" 165 lb. native of Freeport, NY tallied 94 points (30+64) in 65 games for the US Under-18 team last season. Those 64 assists eclipsed the previous single-season record of 50 set by Patrick Kane (2005-06) and Andy Hilbert (1998-99).
The problem with Bracco and why, presumably, most of the Canadian scouting services are have him way down in the draft is two-fold--he's on the small side and they're put off by is his perceived attitude. Rory Boylen of sportsnet.ca called Bracco "one of the most polarizing players available at the draft" while The Hockey News said that he "soured scouts with his attitude." THN ranked him No. 74. McKeen's has him at No. 47. Button's TSN colleague Bob McKenzie has Bracco ranked 53rd on his list while NHL's Central Scouting has him ranked No. 60 amongst NA skaters. ISS was the kindest to Bracco placing him 28th.
All the services invariably bring up the obvious--lack of size--but what most will agree upon is that what he lacks in size he makes up for in skill and chutzpah. Baker wrote of Bracco from the 29th slot, "A speedy, slippery winger with exceptional puck skills, Bracco has consistently made the most of his opportunities. Whether it was his two-goal performance at the CCM/USA Hockey All American Prospects Game (playing on a line with Eichel,) his three goals and a tournament-best 10 helpers to help the U.S. to the gold medal at the IIHF Under-18 World Championship or his 14 tallies in 24 USHL contests with the NDTP’s U-18 squad, Bracco was a presence on virtually every shift in his draft year."
I'm not sure why, but Daniel Briere keeps popping into my head when it comes to Bracco.
If Bracco isn't there, perhaps this is where Murray goes for a goaltender, although I'm not quite ready to do so. Niagara Ice Dogs defenseman Vince Dunn and his offensive prowess should get plenty of attention from the Sabres at this spot.
2nd round, Pick 51:
This is where I think the Sabres should go for a goaltender. There are two that just might make it through--Daniel Vladar and Matej Tomek--and of the two, Tomek is probably the one that will drop to Buffalo at No. 51 as all the attention has been on Samsonov, Vladar and Mackenzie Blackwood.
At 6'3" 181 Tomek has the size that Murray covets in his netminder while his long legs that cover the bottom part of the net well. Tomek is said to be agile and flexible in the butterfly with little wasted motion. He rocked the net for the Topeka Road Runners of the North American Hockey League posting a 1.83 gaa and a .928 sv. % in 33 games as a 17 yr. old. It was enough to interest Flyers GM Ron Hextall, a pretty good former NHL goalie himself, who was the only GM known to have interviewed Tomek.
The Sabres acquired this pick from the NYI in the Vanek trade, so once again they're playing with house money. In my estimation, they could take any of Samsonov, Vladar, Tomek or Blackwood here and add to the goalie prospect pool.
Barring that, this is the drop-off point where longshots start coming into play. One player to keep in mind here is 6'4" 222 lb. left-winger, Jordan Greenway. Murray could add another in the line of "heavies" on the left-side and if Greenway can iron out his inconsistencies, he might just make it in a bottom-six role at the NHL-level.
3rd round--No pick
4th round--Pick 92
What Greenway is to size and beef on the left side, Andrew Mangiapane is to skill, vision and hockey sense. Too bad he can't tap into some of Greenway's size.
At 5'10" 161 lbs. Mangiapane is on the smaller side but is said to play a bigger game. He had a breakout season as an overager with the OHL's Barrie Colts last season scoring 104 points (43+61) in 68 games, over double what he had the previous season.
Unlike the two-way Greenway, Mangiapane is focused supremely focused on offense and finding open space to work some magic. You can teach defense, but you can't teach talent.
As we get into these lower rounds I wouldn't mind if Murray traded every pick after No. 2 this year to move the No. 21 pick as high as he can go. More than likely he'll make a smaller move or two to take a mild step up. Again, what it comes down to is finding a dance partner.
That being said, with the Sabres landing a premier player in Eichel and having three of the top-51 picks in a deep draft, should they use those picks, they'll be coming out of a deep 2015 draft with a stranglehold on the top prospect pool in the NHL.
After that it becomes a matter of how they're used.
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