Reprinted with permission from hockeybuzz.com
Dependent upon a team's needs, there's quite the array of players to choose from in the next tier of prospects after Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are taken with the first two picks in the 2015 NHL Draft. "When we sat down, we started our list at No. 3," said Dan Marr director of NHL Central Scouting on WGR's Howard Simon Show earlier this month. "And from 3-10," he continued, "you're getting some pretty special players."
The general consensus is that atop Marr's group of "pretty special players" are (in no particular order) Noah Hanifin, Dylan Strome and Mitch Marner who are almost certain to be taken with the 3rd through 5th-overall picks. Although Marr places them with the rest of his group those three constitute a valuable sub-tier of highly-skilled, very talented players who could conceivably hit the NHL as teenagers. They're building blocks that neither Arizona, Toronto or Carolina will part with easily.
After the projected top-5 in the draft, the next five invariably include powerful winger Lawson Crouse, big, two-way winger Mikko Rantanen, centers Pavel Zacha and Matthew Barzal and defenseman Ivan Provorov. And if you wanted to stretch Marr's group to 11, there's Michigan Wolverine defenseman Zach Werenski who's been weaving in and out of the top-10.
Some, like Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com/sabres.com and Phil Myre, of International Scouting Services, have even stretched this group down to the 13th/14th slot. But if you're a team looking to trade up to fill a need, and this may be the year to do so, it's probably in your best interest to get into the top-10.
We know Buffalo Sabres GM Tim Murray wants to move up in the draft with the team's second first-rounder. How high up he wants to go and how much it will cost are the things we don't know. Nor do we know if there's a dance partner for him. Keep in mind that he tried getting back into the first round last year but was unable to do so. He said he offered all three second-rounders the Sabres had, but found no takers.
Perhaps having the 21st-overall this year in combination with the 31st and/or the 51st will be enough to get him to where he wants to go. Baker pointed out that back in 2012 former GM Darcy Regier was able to get the 14th-overall selection (Zemgus Girgensons) for the 21st and 42nd picks at 2012 the draft. Moving from No.21 up to the top-10 or higher is a much bigger jump and, obviously, will require more assets, possibly involving a prospect. Murray not only has those assets, both picks and prospects, he's also shown a willingness to make a splash.
What might pique Murray's interest in that area?
We know he likes "heavies." As director of player personnel for the Anaheim Ducks from 2002-05 they selected Ryan Getzlaf (19th) and Corey Perry (28th) in 2003 and Bobby Ryan (2nd) in 2005. All of them over 6'2" 200 lbs. And he carried that over to Ottawa as the Senators' AGM when his first selection was 6'2" 200 lb. center Jim O'Brien in 2007.
Baker has mentioned to me that his choice in a trade-up scenario would be to land LW/C Paval Zacha, who he calls "a playmaking power forward with a heavy shot [who] has the strength and game-breaking bursts of speed to make an immediate NHL impact." He's always had an affinity for big, powerforwards with skill. And a player like Zacha is right in Murray's wheelhouse.
Yet, as a life-long scout, Murray has been, and remains, adamant about picking the best player available. In 2008 he was responsible for the Sens plucking Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson with the 15th-overall pick while passing on 6'5" 220 lb. forward Joel Colborne (BOS.)
We also know that he's doesn't go all Don Cherry "Canadian-centric" and isn't adverse to drafting Swedes, Czech's or American's with a first round pick either. Within that context, however, Murray does seem to have an aversion to Russians as he's only drafted one--Ruslan Bashkirov, 2007, 60th-overall--during his time in Anaheim and in Ottawa.
It was something Baker pointed out on WGR's Mike Schopp and the Bulldog Show earlier this week when he said that "Murray doesn't particularly have a history, or any kind of track record, of developing Russian hockey players. I'm not saying he's trying to eradicate these [Russians] all together, but there is this thought in NHL circles that you either have one [Russian] or none on your team."
When it comes to Murray drafting from the Motherland, the determining factor, more than anything else, was how said prospect graded out amongst his peers. Very few Russian prospects were taken in and around where Murray was picking in the draft so Ruskiephobia probably never fully entered the equation. Adding to that, Murray's probably a little miffed seeing Vladmir Taresenko reaching superstar-status after being drafted by the St. Louis Blues with Ottawa's first rounder in 2010.
If it's more of a grading thing than anything else, that's a good thing. From a talent perspective there a few Russian prospects sure to pique one's interest in the first and early second rounds of the draft this year. One particularly interesting prospect out of Russia via the WHL is Provorov, a 6'0" 201 lb. defenseman who skated for the Brandon Wheat Kings last season.
Provorov is a gifted skater who "proved to be a do-it-all force" in his first season with Brandon, according to Baker. He was the highest scoring rookie in the WHL with 61 points (15+46) in 60 games during the regular season and had another 13 points (2+11) in 19 playoff games. "The offensive output, which included five three-point games," wrote Baker for sabres.com, "was the result of great confidence and vision with the puck."
That confidence and vision, as well as a deceptive shot netted him eight powerplay goals on the second best powerplay in the WHL behind the league-champion Kelowna Rockets.
Provorov is also proficient on the back-end as well. Baker called him an "intense defensive competitor [who's] not afraid to sacrifice his body for team [and is] calm in the face of pressure. He smartly opts to go high off the glass as opposed to forcing anything and can either skate it out of his zone and take it deep or leg it out trouble with a few strides and deliver a sharp outlet pass to a streaking winger."
Eliteprospects.com said of Provorov, "[He's] an offensively gifted defenceman who can direct the game's pace when the puck is on his stick and creates many chances on the power play and can even create offense during the penalty kill. All-in-all, a complete defenceman who knows how goals are scored and executes accordingly."
Some mocks have him going as high as No.4 to Toronto, yet the consensus is that he'll probably land in the No. 7-9 range. The Philadelphia Flyers have the seventh-overall pick and a strong group of prospects on defense, but Provorov might be too good to pass up as the best player available. If Philly passes one would be hard pressed to see him drop past No. 8 as the Columbus Blue Jackets look to be going defense with either Provorov or Zach Werenski.
It's hard not to be enamored by a player with those attributes, and there's heavy interest in a player like Provorov who's on ice-presence, skill and hockey smarts make him a force on the ice from the back-end. With the probable pick of Jack Eichel at No. 2 the Sabres will have a bonafide No. 1 center (along with two other top-six centers) and already have a top-line left wing in Evander Kane. As good as a prospect Zacha is, what Buffalo doesn't have right now is an offensive defenseman with elite-level skills.
If you're gonna send at least two picks, probably three and possibly even more, to move up some 15 spots, and all things equal between two prospects, it might make more sense for Buffalo to to do it for a game-breaking defenseman like Provorov, especially when there's nothing else like him in the system.
(thx, U20 for the vid)
Sorry that he's Russian, but talent is talent.
At 21 they're going to get a good player, Phil Myre, ISS, "Top 20 definitely NHL players."
1-2
3-14 really strong
15-30 a little bit of a drop but there will still be a lot of darkhorses who are going to be great players.
The Sabres already have Nikita Zadorov who has tremendous upside on defense and Mikhail Grigorenko who may have one more shot in Buffalo after they qualify him. Buffalo also has 22 yr. old goaltending prospect Andrey Makarov plying his trade at the professional level in Rochester. That said, one would think that if Murray, who is a scout at heart, likes a prospect and the reports from his scouting staff say player-X is the best player that he will make the selection no matter where he's from.
With the
trade-up partner, philly who doesn't have a second rounder this year.
16-20: Denis Guryanov, Togliatti Jr. (Russia)
Kris Baker of Sabresprospects.com caused me to move Denis Guryanov into the mid-teem range when he placed him at No. 14 on his list of top-30 draft prospects. Guryanov's rankings are all over the board. ISS has him ranked No. 22 as does McKeen's Hockey. Central Scouting has him 7th for Euro skaters and TSN's Bob McKenzie has him right at No. 21 where the Sabres are slated to draft. McKenzie's colleague, Craig Button, has Guryanov at No. 20.
The overall consensus is that Guryanov combines size (6'2" 187 lbs.,) speed and skill with McKenzie drawing up a comparable to the NY Rangers Chris Kreider. Baker wrote, "A swift, powerful skater who is more finisher than creator, Guryanov is somewhat unique in the class due to his seemingly unlimited goal-scoring upside. He’s a lethal left-handed shooter."
What first drew me too Guryanov was Kyle Woodlief's Red Line Report on the top-10 forwards in the 2015 draft. Woodlief had him ranked 6th on the list and wrote, "Guryanov has, without question, the most powerful shot in the draft. The puck explodes off his stick and handcuffs even top netminders. Guryanov is also a powerful skater who accelerates instantly to top speed. He may be the best pure sniper available this year."
His hockey skills should be enough to place him just outside the top-10 in the draft, but, of course, there's still hesitation when drafting young players. Woodlief believes "he's likely to slide a bit in the draft due to the 'Russian factor.'"
Baker sees Guryanov playing one, maybe two more seasons in the KHL before making the trek overseas, and the Sabres have plenty of time to accommodate his wishes. There's always the possibility that Guryanov, like any Russian, could be stay in the Motherland which would mean a wasted first-rounder (plus whatever else it took to move up,) but Sabres GM Tim Murray is playing with house money.
When people are throwing around words like "best pure sniper available" and "unlimited goal-scoring upside" in a package that includes top-notch skating and NHL-size, it's a homerun package. One that would fit nicely into the a Buffalo Sabres foundation that has focused upon strong two-way ability and hockey smarts.
NHL size speed and skill. If you're not salivating over a potential top-line of Jack Eichel centering Evander Kane on the left and Guryanov on the right, perhaps
17-20: None.
Stick with the pick--All about gambling.
Looking for high-risk, high reward picks with longer-term projections. Trading down doesn't make a lot sense for the club as they've had so many picks over the course of the last three drafts. But in sticking with No.21 and No. 31 slots, it would behoove the Sabres to reach for players with dynamic attributes who've fallen out of favor in the scouting community and are looked upon as somewhat of a risk.
No. 21 is the pick the Buffalo Sabres received in the Thomas Vanek trade from the NY Islanders. Isles GM Garth Snow opted to keep their 2014 first rounder which he used to select Oshawa Generals LW, Michael Del Colle fifth-overall. It left the team with this pick.
Word is out that a pretty good goalie prospect in Ilya Samsonov may be available at 21 and that the Sabres might be interested.
1st round--#21
Joel Eriksson Ek, LHC, 6'2" 185 lbs. DOB: 01-29-1997; CSS Rank, #4 (EU Skaters)
JAKUB ZBORIL--sergei zubov
Yevgeni Svechnikov, LHW, 6'3", 205 lbs. DOB: 10-31-1996; CSS Rank #17 (NA Skaters)
JUULSEN, NOAH
2nd round--#31
Oliver Kylington, LHD, 6'0", 181 lbs. DOB: 05-19-1997; CSS Rank #6 (EU Skaters)
Jeremy Bracco
RYAN PILON
2nd round--#51 (from NY Islanders)
Daniel Vladar, 6'5" 185 lbs. DOB: 08-20-1997, CSS Rank #2 (EU goalie) nhl.com note
Vince Dunn, LHD, 6'0" 185 lbs. DOB: 10-29-1996; CSS Rank, #32
MELOCHE, NICOLAS
(NIKITA KOROSTELEV)
3rd round--No pick
4th round--#92
Connor Garland, RRW, 5'8" 165 lbs. DOB: 03-11-1996; CSS Rank #86
Andrew Mangiapane, LHF, 5'10" 161 lbs. DOB: 04-04-1996, CSS Rank, #85
Chaz Reddekopp, LHD
Maxim Lazarev, RHW, 5'10" 170 lbs. DOB: 01-29-1996, CSS Rank,
CHRIS MARTENET
5th round--#122
Jake Jaremko, LHF, 5'10" 172 lbs. DOB: 08-24-1996; CSS Rank, #110
Denis Godla, G, 5'11" 176 lbs. DOB: 04-04-1995; CSS Rank (#7, Euro Goalies)
TROY TERRY
6th round--#152
Alec Broetzman, LHF, 6'2" 181 lbs. DOB: 02-05-1997; CSS Rank,
7th round--#182
William Reilly, RHD, 6'2" 187 lbs. DOB: 7-23-1997, CSS Rank, #190
Jake Poehling, LHF, 5'11" 174 lbs. DOB: 08-29-1996; CSS Rank, #186
Jacob Sweeney, LHD, 6'4", 212 lbs. DOB: 03-01-1995; CSS Rank,
TIM MCGAULEY
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