Reprinted with permission from hockeybuzz.com
"I think there's a consensus of what players will be available No. 3 through No. 10, but in what order is the big question. From that No. 11 pick on, that's where we'll do our homework and make our money."
--Greg Royce, Buffalo Sabres director of amateur scouting
Greg Royce has 18 seasons under his belt as a scout for NHL clubs having spent six seasons in Ottawa as an amateur scout under Tim Murray. After Murray got settled in as the new Sabres GM one of his first front office moves was to bring Royce in to head his amateur scouting department. "Greg has a good eye for young talent and I have full confidence in his ability to identify amateur talent," Murray told NHL.com's Mike Morreale last week. "He had tremendous success working in the trenches as a scout when we were together with the Ottawa Senators and I know that success will now translate to the Sabres."
The tandem will sit down in Sunrise, FL this Friday with four of the first 51 picks (Nos. 2, 21, 31, 51) in the draft barring any trades beforehand. Murray had sat down last week in a pre-draft press gathering saying pick-21 was in play. His desired return is high and probably unattainable but he's in a situation where all of his options are favorable. "[If] a team calls and they offer us a 23- or 24-year-old top-six forward or top-three defenseman or No. 1 goalie, and they'd be willing to take [the 21st pick] for that," he said at the pre-draft presser. "[it] would be optimal for us, [yet]the chance of either scenario happening, right now for me, is slim-to-none."
If there is a trade to be consummated involving the 21st-overall pick, chances are it will be something Murray does to move up in the draft.
From what Royce intimated, it doesn't seem as if the Sabres feel they'll have a shot at moving from pick No. 21 all the way up into the top-10. Nor from Murray's words the other day, does it seem as if they'll be trading the pick for an NHL player to their liking.
Yesterday we went over ideal scenarios for a look at a couple of players of interest in the top-10. Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com/sabres.com singled out Pavel Zacha while I preferred defenseman Ivan Provorov.
With enthusiasm tempered, we turn our attention to middle-third of the first round. Odds, of course, are better for the Sabres to trade up into that area which ranges from the 11th pick or so, dependent upon who's talking, down past the Sabres to around the 23rd-overall pick. Most players in that group are similar in talent-level and NHL projections with their development curve placing them on a two to three year road to the NHL.
There are a few players who seem to be at the top of that third tier of prospects who are slightly above their peers in that group--defenseman Zach Werenski, and Lawson Crouse, who some have going in the top-10 and Timo Meier, who most have hovering right around that 11/12 area. After that names like Travis Konecny, Kyle Connor, Colin White, Nick Merkely, Jakub Zboril, Evgeni Svechnikov, Paul Bittner, Thomas Chabot, Joel Eriksson-Ek and goalie Ilya Samsonov are invariably mentioned in the next grouping of players.
Of all those players, the most intriguing player to trade up for might be Meier.
At 6'1 201 lbs. Meier already has a pro frame and with 90 points (44+46) for Halifax in the QMJHL, he has shown that he can be an offensive force from the right side. He's a burgeoning powerforward with "skill and undeniable determination [that] can beat you multiple ways, either with finesse or power," wrote TSN's Craig Button.
As a bonus, Baker says that Meier "is one of the most NHL-ready prospects available in the 2015 NHL Draft," which is something that's right in Murray's wheelhouse as he wants to get the future rolling as soon as possible. "There is certainly plenty of offensive upside in play," continued Baker, "but his rugged versatility may ultimately see him develop into a valuable forward who can find space for his linemates to operate. He’s very good at working the give-and-go down low."
Meier is also adept on the powerplay tallying a franchise-record 23 goals last season for the Mooseheads.
There are minor rumblings that Meier was a beneficiary of playing on a line with 2014 first round picks Nikolaj Ehlers (ninth-overall, WPG) and Kevin Fiala (14th, NSH,) but that could be a positive in Buffalo. It's not hard to envision a powerful top-line featuring 6'2" 195 lb. winger Evander Kane, 6'2" 196 lb. Jack Eichel at center and the stout Meier on the right side. Would make for a pretty imposing powertrio were they to click.
Other than Meier, every other player in the 11-23 grouping seems to have flaws that may take a few years to overcome, if said flaws are overcome at all. It would make the trade-up essentially a waste of an asset as all are similar in overall skill-level with their defining positives counterbalanced by shortcomings and one of them will be there at No. 21 for Buffalo to take as the best player available.
Phil Myre of International Scouting Services was on WGR550 last month. His overall assessment had the Nos. 3-14 picks as real strong with "a little bit of a drop off from 15-30, but still a lot of darkhorses who are going to be great players." Baker has a Nos. 3-12 range followed by the next grouping from 13-23.
After Meier there's a dark horse prospect in the bunch that might be worth pursuing and odds are, based upon where the various scouting services have place him pre-draft, he may very well be there for the taking at No. 21 without having to move up..
Baker ended up rating 6'2" 189 lb. winger Denis Guryanov as the 14th best prospect in the draft this year calling him "a lethal left-handed shooter who is most potent when firing from his off-wing." He went on to write that Guryanov's "a swift, powerful skater who is more finisher than creator, [and] is somewhat unique in the class due to his seemingly unlimited goal-scoring upside."
What first drew me to Guryanov was Kyle Woodlief's Red Line Report on the top-10 forwards in the 2015 draft this year. Woodlief had him ranked sixth on the list and wrote, "Guryanov has, without question, the most powerful shot in the draft. The puck explodes off his stick and handcuffs even top netminders. Guryanov is also a powerful skater who accelerates instantly to top speed. He may be the best pure sniper available this year."
His hockey skills should be enough to place him right around the top-10 in the draft, but, of course, there's still hesitation from clubs when it comes to drafting Russians. Woodlief believes Guryanov "is likely to slide a bit in the draft due to the 'Russian factor," and because of it Guryanov's ranking is right in Buffalo's wheelhouse. ISS has him ranked No. 22 as does McKeen's Hockey and Central Scouting has him ranked seventh for Euro skaters.
TSN's Bob McKenzie has him right at No. 21 where the Sabres are slated to draft saying that Guryanov's combination of size, speed and skill is comparable to the NY Rangers Chris Kreider.. McKenzie's colleague, Craig Button, has Guryanov at No. 20.
When people are throwing around words like "dynamic" (elite prospects.com, TSN's Craig Button,) "best pure sniper available" and "unlimited goal-scoring upside" in a package that includes top-notch skating and NHL-size, getting a player like that could be a steal at 21 or in a slight move up.
Baker sees Guryanov playing one, maybe two more seasons in the KHL before coming to North America with the Sabres having plenty of time to accommodate his wishes. Of course, there's always the possibility that Guryanov, like any Russian, could stay in the Motherland meaning a wasted first-rounder but Murray is playing with house money at this point. The franchise has had a ton of draft picks and his coffers are full of prospects attained over the course of the last three years.
For Murray, drafting Guryanov would be an out of the box move. Landing a player he wants is nothing new to Murray as he's already set the precedence with a couple of trades which included the Kane/Tyler Myers blockbuster. Something new to Murray might be drafting a Russian in the first round and it might be something that's out of his comfort-zone.
Regardless, it would behoove the Sabres to reach for players in the draft this year who have dynamic attributes but are looked at as a risk and have fallen out of favor in the scouting community. This could/should be the draft where Buffalo eschews the "safe picks" at 21, 31 and 51 opting instead to swing for the fences with one or more high-risk, high reward prospects.
Taken as a whole, the Sabres have built a very solid foundation of prospects with size and skating ability as well as two-way acumen. What they are lacking, to an extent, are dynamic players with skill and chutzpah. They'll be getting one of those in Eichel, the presumed second overall pick and Kane has that swagger to his game, but there's room for more.
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