Friday, February 28, 2014

On the Tyler Myers rumors

Sabres GM Tim Murray famously said at his presser that anyone can be traded on a last place team.

While Ryan Miller, Steve Ott, Matt Moulson and Hank Tallinder may be looking at their last home game in a Sabres uniform, 24 yr. old defenseman Tyler Myers' name got thrown into the mix.

From TSN's Darren Dreger via the Howard Simon Show this morning, "It's not that Tim Murray has put out the league-wide disclaimer that Tyler Myers is absolutely, 100% on the trade block. That isn't the case. Tyler Myers is a hot commodity, not just to other teams, but to the Buffalo Sabres. But, because [the Sabres] are rebuilding every option needs to be considered. Murray would consider trading Tyler Myers. In saying this, it would take a massive offer for Murray to move Myers."

As is Dreger's M.O., in a lot of words he basically said, "Myers is not being shopped. He's a real good player and will continue to get better. If a team wants him, back up the truck."

So typical.


Dreger states the obvious, and the local media will spend 80% of their time on his "insider info."

In Myers' case we're gonna keep it simple and use an old adage (with a bit of a twist,) "follow the money."

It's all about the contract.

Say what you will about former GM Darcy Regier, but he was one shrewd operator when it came to not only trades, but contracts as well (save for the Ville Leino one.)

Regier gave himself an out when signing Myers' to that 7yr./$38.5m contract two years ago.

Knowing that he had the full confidence and financial backing of owner Terry Pegula, Regier was able to front-load Myers' contract while coming to a reasonable cap-hit. Should Myers get better and become that that #1 or top-pairing d-man, the $5.5m cap-hit would look real good.

If Myers started to level off or decline and ended up being no more than a second-pairing or #5 d-man--which is where he was for the two years he spent in the abyss--he remains tradeable based upon the actual salary being handed out.

At the end of this season, Myers will have been paid $18m already. The salary for the remainder of the contract is $20.5m over the final five years, or about a $4m/yr. outlay at a $5.5m cap-hit.

And Regier added one more level of security.

Myers has a modified no-trade clause, but it won't kick in until the 2016-17 season.

By that time, Myers will be 26 yrs. old. At the end of the 2015 season he will have been paid $28m of his contract. He will have three years left with a total salary outlay of $10.5m, or about $3.2m per season. And his cap-hit will still be $5.5m. A very attractive proposition to a frugal franchise.

Tyler Myers, at the very least, is a second-pairing d-man who still has upside. That upside may be realized within the next two seasons. Trading him now makes very little sense.

The Sabres have two years to let him develop further and two years to decide if he fits into the grand scheme of things while in that time his contract becomes more and more tradeable.

At this time of year, the analysts and insiders up north are under a ton of pressure to get that insider info and be the first one with a story.

Tyler Myers is really playing well and seems to be getting better. In the grand scheme of things, two years from now he may be a 26 yr. old "elder statesman" anchoring an impressive group of young defensemen.

Murray has two years to figure it out. Trading Myers now just doesn't make sense unless there's a ridiculous return.

In the words of Public Enemy, "Don't believe the hype."

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