Monday, June 20, 2011

Like the Top-Six...

...the Buffalo Sabres Bottom-Six has holes down the middle.

Holes down the middle has been a theme since 2008 when we found out that Derek Roy and Tim Connolly would not adequately fill the skates of the departed Daniel Briere and Chris Drury. And if you can't fill the top-two properly, the bottom-two will be affected as well.

About the only thing we know for sure when it comes to the bottom-two centers is that Paul Gaustad will be one of them.

The masses chortle GM Darcy Regier for giving an essentially #4 center $2.5M/year and they're somewhat right.

"The Goose" lets loose as he tangle with the
Flyers Scott Hartnell in Game-2 of the
2011 playoffs.
The former 7th-round pick (2000) has the size at 6'4", 225lbs and aggressiveness to be a strong physical presence on the ice and is considered a leader on the team wearing the "A" on his sweater.

"Goose" does a lot of the little things on the ice like sticking up for his teammates and is the team's best face off man, yet we always are left wanting something more than his 12-goal seasons. Fact is, he may not be capable of scoring more than that, which puts him in the bottom-six.

The Sabres have a big body in Gaustad who displays strong on-ice leadership and tenacity in the face off circle. As he enters into the final year of his contract, "Goose" is a Buffalo Sabre and probably will remain as one for his career. Not a bad thing, but a little salary adjustment downward for the center would probably be appropriate.

Gaustad as a #4 center would be ideal, but they still have a hole in the #3 slot.

Last season Rob Niedermayer was the #3 and the Sabres showed incredible patience with the veteran, cup-winning centerman as it took him 53 games to score his first goal of the season. In the playoffs, though, Niedermayer showed why the Sabres signed him as he provided a very steadying influence throughout the 7-game series loss vs. Philadelphia.

As mentioned in a previous blog, under the right conditions, bringing "Nieds" back would be a good thing.

Another player that might fill the #3 center position would be current UFA Tim Connolly.

Connolly has taken a beating over the past four or five seasons both literally and figuratively as he tried to fill a top-six center role. He may be shot to the point where he'd thrive in a bottom-six role as a defensive-minded, penalty-killing #3. But, coming off of a $4.5M/year contract, as well as a lot of guff from Sabreland, it would be easy for one to think that he'll move on for more money and a fresh start.

Jochen Hecht showing some spunk as he
tangles with the Bolts' Vinny Lecavalier.
Then there's Jochen Hecht.

Hecht is a utility-man up-front who's best position is wing. As a very smart, very versatile two-way player, Hecht would be welcome on the Sabres in a third-line role. Problem is, the Sabres are very strong on the wings, especially LW, his natural position.

Would the team want to pay $3.5M to a #3 center who's alternated between very good and very poor over the past four seasons? Have injuries caught up with him? Would the Sabres be able to trade him and his salary?

I like Jochen Hecht as a player and wouldn't have much of a problem with him as that third-line center. He has one more year on his contract and with the salary cap expected to climb into the $62-$64M range it wouldn't be that difficult for the team to keep him and still remain within whatever fiscal parameters Terry Pegula decides upon. After this season, the team can look towards filling that #3 slot with a Ron Francis/Rod Brind'Amour-type, cup-winner if need-be.

Nate Gerbe watches his playoff-
clinching backhander April 8, 2011.
With that in mind, we'll fill out the wings on the bottom-six:
  • LW Nathan Gerbe really kicked it in gear in the 2011 portion of the season. The light-switch seemed to come on after a sub-par, bordering on brutal, first half of the season. But the kid's a winner and seems to have a penchant for the dramatic as witnessed by his game-winning/playoff-clinching, no-look back-hander from the slot vs. Philadelphia in the second-last game of the regular season. He still has work to do and a move up to the top-six would be a strong possibility were it not for the presence of Thomas Vanek and Tyler Ennis on the left side, but ya gotta love what the kid brings to the table.
  • LW Cody McCormick is another FA, only unrestricted. Rumor has it that he's looking for a big (relatively speaking) pay day. As a fourth-liner, I'd like to see the Sabres re-sign him.
  • RW Patrick Kaleta is a banger and it looks as if he may be in for a short career. He has four full NHL seasons under his belt and has yet to play more than 55 games. With his style of play, it wouldn't be much of reach to think that he'll have the same problems this season. A fourth-line agitator role would be ideal for the kid, playing 8-10 minutes per game.
With the probable retirement of veteran RW Mike Grier and no NHL-ready RW in the AHL, there seems to be an opening at #3.

Would the Sabres use 2011 trade-deadline acquisition Brad Boyes in that slot? That would be $4M there, and if they use Hecht as a third-line center, we're talking $7.5M tied up in two slots on the third line. I cannot see that happening even with Pegula taking off the financial constraints.

Boyes and Hecht are two sides of the same coin--Boyes supposedly the offensive side, Hecht the defensive side--so the team would not be adding anything special for the amount they'd be spending.

One or the other would need to go, and my guess is that it would be Boyes.

As for depth wingers, there will be plenty to choose from in the off-season, Matt Ellis, should he re-sign would be capable of filling in. We'll also probably see Zack Kassian and Marcus Foligno get a taste of the NHL as well.

the buffalosabresnow 2011/12 roster foundation:


Goalie:
  • Ryan Miller
  • Jhonas Enroth
Defense:
  • 1st-pairing: Tyler Myers, ?
  • 2nd-pairing: Jordan Leopold, Chris Butler
  • 3rd-pairing: Mike Weber, Marc-Andre Gragnani
  • reserve: ?
Top-Six Forwards:
  • Thomas Vanek, ?, Jason Pomminville
  • Tyler Ennis, Derek Roy, Drew Stafford
Bottom-Six Forwards:
  • Nate Gerbe, Jochen Hecht, ?
  • Cody McCormick, Paul Gaustad, Patrick Kaleta

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