The Buffalo Sabres Restricted Free Agents Line Up Behind...

Drew Stafford always had
the size and skill, has he
finally grasped the
mental aspect of the game?





...RW, Drew Stafford.

"Staff" heads the list simply because he is the player that's expecting, and is expected to, fetch the largest RFA-contract this off-season for the Sabres.

And because of his inconsistency before his breakout 2010/11 season, the scenario's are limitless when it comes to salary, length of contract and the return on investment during the length of the new deal.

Stafford is also eligible for arbitration and there's the possibility that it could be a one-year arbitration award that could see the Sabres walk away from it either immediately or part ways at the end of next season.

Maybe that's why Regier brought in RW Brad Boyes at the trade-deadline this past season. Boyes, who seems to be same player as Staff, is still under contract for one more season. That addition loaded up the team at RW with Staff, Boyes, and Jason Pomminville vying for top-six minutes. Not to mention that Thomas Vanek, a right-hander, played very well at RW earlier this season.



With that in mind, what should the Sabres do with Drew Stafford?

The first thing we'll keep in mind--as we will with all the Sabres roster players and potential additions--is go to a quote from Sabres Owner Terry Pegula taken from his February 22, 2011 press conference:  "I wanna keep not only statistically good players, but winners, gritty players."



Does Staff fit the bill? Will he be a part of the Pegula Rewards Program?

Let's go back in time.

The North Dakota Fighting Sioux product began the 2006/07 season with the Rochester Americans and found himself shuffling back and forth between the Amerks and the Sabres throughout the year before joining the big club permanently in February of '07.



As indicated by his 22 goals and 22 assists in 34 games with Rochester, the big winger could play at the professional level, dominating the AHL. But, could he bring that scoring prowess to the NHL?



He has all the tools, always did. He's got the size, is hard to move off the puck, has sniper-like skills and does play with an edge at times. But, with him, it seemed to be the mental aspect that contributed to his inconsistencies in the three years prior to the 2010/11 season.

That could be directly related not only to the lack of AHL seasoning, but also to the 2007 off-season which saw two Sabres leaders bolt for free agency--Daniel Briere and Chris Drury. And of the two, it would seem as if the loss of Drury had the greatest impact upon Stafford.

On February 22, 2007 (ironically enough) the Ottawa Senator's Chris Neil leveled Drury with a dirty head-shot that left the captain on the ice woozy and bleeding. And the Sabres player that stood up to Neil? Drew Stafford.

Although it wasn't much of a fight, as a rookie, Stafford showed that he knew what it meant to be a teammate.

Staff would finish that season with very respectable rookie numbers for the Sabres:  13 goals, 14 assists in 47 regular season games, 2 goals and 2 assists in 10 playoff games.

For the next three seasons he would put up decent numbers and always seemed to be knocking on the door of that breakout season.

And that was his problem, he was merely knocking at the door waiting for an answer (maybe playing a little guitar-hero as well?) No one on the Sabres roster had enough of an influence upon him for those three years to tell him that he had to kick the door down if he wanted to reach his potential. During those post-Drury seasons his numbers and style of play relegated him to elevated Ales Kotalik-status. Kotalik was a big forward with oodles of scoring potential, but a laissez-faire attitude.

This was Drew Stafford.

With the departures of top-line players in the 2007 off-season, many young players--including recently-inked, multi-million-dollar offer-sheet recipient Thomas Vanek, center Derek Roy, winger Jason Pomminville and a very young Stafford--were all asked to move up the depth chart. These kids were not far removed from the AHL.

Roy and Pomminville had banner 2007/08 seasons points-wise. Vanek had his numbers drop, most significantly in overall points and prohibitively in +/- (from a plus-47 to a minus-5.)

As for Stafford, his numbers were relatively the same with the addition of 23 more games played. But his on-ice inconsistencies and general loafing away from the puck got him in Lindy Ruff's doghouse for stretches and earned him the internet moniker of "stifford."

The 2008/09 season marked the final year of Staffords entry-level contract and he did very little to deviate from his norm. He once again upped his goals (finally reaching the 20-goal level) and assists (25,) but that was achieved in an additional 15 games.

All-in-all Stafford's points per game remained around the .60 mark. Which was great for Regier. He was able to sign him for two years--which kept him in RFA-status at the end of the contract--at a very affordable $3.8m.

The 2009/10 season, the first of his new contract saw Stafford's numbers decline and it was looking as if the contract was just right for his production and inconsistencies. His regular season came to a close with two games off due to a concussion which carried over into the first two games of the Boston playoff series. The next three games saw him get shut out in Games 3, 4, 5 and benched in the deciding Game 6.

Such was the Drew Stafford we'd come to expect.

Thomas Vanek seems to have taken
over Chris Drury's role of
mentor to RFA Drew Stafford.

Behind the scenes, though, it seemed as if he was starting to take things more seriously. During the 2010 off-season the word on the street was that Thomas Vanek had taken him under his wing and that Staff had dedicated himself to an off-season regiment and work-out plan.

Although his numbers remained the same production-wise early in the season--four goals, four assists in 14 games (.57 points/game,) Ruff had stated that he was playing excellent hockey...at times.

Those 14 games represented the best start to the year he'd ever had. Unfortunately his start was derailed by injuries which saw him miss 15 of the next 16 games. His only appearance being a 1st-star performance vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets on December 3 in which he had a goal and an assist in his return.

After an "upper body" injury kept him out for the next four games, Staff returned with a vengeance vs. the Boston Bruins. In a harbinger of things to come, he got the hat-trick, including the game-winner. It would be the first of four hat-tricks on the year.
Take out the stat-line from the first 14 games and you have the following:  27 goals and 17 assists--41 points-- in 48 games.

As much as Staffords average/inconsistent play help Regier in the previous contract, Staff's eye-popping second-half certainly raised his stature in present negotiations.

But, does Staff deserve to be a part of the Pegula Rewards Program with a multi-year contract?

Using Pegula's own words concerning retaining players--"I wanna keep not only statistically good players, but winners, gritty players."--it's pretty obvious that the stats are there with question marks surrounding the other two aspects.

Without Stafford contributing, it's safe to say that the Sabres would be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.

And what exactly does "gritty" mean in the eyes of Pegula (or anyone else, for that matter?)

Stafford is not John LeClaire. He's not Ryan Getzlaf. Nor is he Milan Lucic. And that's not a bad thing.

He can be himself--being gritty by absorbing hits along the boards to keep the puck and/or taking a hit in the slot to get off a premium shot as well as drop the gloves on rare occasion. And, as shown by Ruff's faith in his defensive work, Stafford can show his grit--as well as defensive-determination--by continuing to excel on the penalty kill, a new aspect to his game which was showcased in the seven-game loss to Philly in the playoffs.

There should be no problem with wanting and keeping a player like Staff. He seems to have gone from inconsistent to streaky goal-scorer. He's only 25, about to reach his prime, and we've seen two sides of him.

Did Drew Stafford fight his way into
The Pegula Awards Program?

What type of player will he be when he's smack in the middle of his prime?

(shrugs)

Right now there seems to be a window of opportunity for the Sabres to mold him into that big, 30+ goal-scoring power-winger by adding veteran leadership to the forward ranks.

Darcy Regier has a real good one on his hands with this Stafford contract, and I highly doubt that his superiors--Ted Black and Terry Pegula, as well as Senior Advisor, Ken Sawyer--would want this to go to arbitration.

With Stafford showing signs of motivation, concentration and work-ethic, a deal should get done with him. Would four years sound about right (with the contract ending the year after Vanek's and Pomminville's?)

And, at that length, would a cap-hit in the $4M range--give or take $250K--be out of the realm of possibility?

But, to answer the big question first:  Despite his maddening inconsistencies, and with a bit of trepidation, the Sabres will need to take a slight gamble and make Drew Stafford a part of the Pegula Rewards Program. The one caveat being; they can hedge their bet (in addition to making the team stronger) by making sure that they have strong, professional leaders up-front to keep him working.


The Pegula Rewards Program buffalosabresnow list:

GM, Darcy Regier--No
Head Coach Lindy Ruff--Yes
Director of Amateur Scouting Kevin Devine--Yes

UFA Players:

Tim Connolly--No

Steve Montador--No

Mike Grier--Yes, in a front office role

Rob Niedermayer--Yes, if the Sabres are contenders

Cody McCormick--Yes



Matt Ellis--Yes, in two-way contract

Patrick Lalime--No

Mark Mancari--No

RFA Players:

Drew Stafford--Yes