A very Merry Christmas to all, and Happy Boxer Day to our neighbors to the North!
This blog was planned for yesterday but was put on hold as to not cause any severe depression in Sabreland. Unlike the song Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas, the lyrics of which (thanks to a protest by Judy Garland,) were re-written because they were just too sad for that particular scene in Meet Me In St. Louis, we cannot re-write the cold, hard team stats of the Buffalo Sabres when juxtaposed against the 2020-21 Eastern Division.
Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the National Hockey League did some realigning to limit travel as well as run an international league within the constraints of a closed international border between Canada and the United States. The North Division is composed of the seven Canadian teams while the U.S. has the East as well as the Central and Western Divisions. And boy let me tell you, the NHL did the Sabres no favors with this one.
Buffalo just missed out on an expanded playoffs last season and head into a January 13th start date with a league-long, nine-year playoff drought. Barring any divine intervention from Clarence or any other guardian angel, based purely upon statistics, this could be a rough season. Sure, the Sabres added 2018 League MVP Taylor Hall as well as consumate vet, and probable Hall-of-Famer Eric Staal, but there are still many holes in the lineup that will make this season extremely difficult, especially when placed in a division with the likes of the Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers, NY Islanders plus the NY Rangers and NJ Devils.
To add some perspective, I took a peek at the last three seasons and how the Sabres fared against those foes. And it ain't pretty.
Buffalo's record over the past three seasons versus those teams peeks at 50% points-percentage and goes as low as 25% with no more than four wins versus any one opponent (Win, Loss, OT, Pts%):
NJD 4-4-0 50%
PIT 4-4-1 50%
WSH 3-4-1 44%
BOS 4-6-1 41%
NYI 2-4-2 38%
NYR 2-5-1 31%
PHI 2-6-0 25%
When looking at Buffalo's cumulative place in the league over the past three seasons, their overall points percentage ranked last amongst their division foes:
2) BOS .682
3) WSH .642
6) PIT .614
12) PHI .577
16) NYI .567
22) NJD .509
24) NYR .500
29) BUF .442
Buffalo was last in goals-for/game:
3) WSH 3.29
4) PIT 3.27
6) BOS 3.21
10) PHI 3.08
17) NYR 2.91
19) NYI 2.90
24) NJD 2.78
27) BUF 2.63
Last in goals-against/game
1) BOS 2.52
14) NYI 2.91
17) PIT 2.93
18) WSH 3.00
21) PHI 3.03
24) NJD 3.15
27) NYR 3.21
29) BUF 3.27
The Sabres were better on the powerplay:
2) BOS 25.2%
3) PIT 23.8
8) NYR 21.2
10) WSH 21.0
17) PHI 19.6
19) BUF 19.2
20) NJD 19.1
21) NYI 18.6
However, their penalty kill was second-worst:
2) NJD 83.7%
4) BOS 82.6
11-T) WSH 80.5
11-T) PIT 80.5
23) NYR 79.0
24) PHI 78.6
26) BUF 78.0
29) NYI 77.6
Having said all of that, the Sabres look like they've improved this off season, at least on offense. They'll still need to tighten things up on the blue line and in goal, the latter of which is their biggest question-mark heading into the season. But for as bleak as it might look, the belief here is that they should finish ahead of the Devils, and have a good shot at jumping the Rangers. It's also the opinion here that the Penguins are ripe for the picking as they struggled heading into the playoffs last year going 3-8-0 to finish the regular season and were bounced in four games by the Montreal Canadiens in the qualifying round.
For as much hope as that might bring, Buffalo would still need to jump one more team.
Clarence.
Clarence!
CLARENCE!!!
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(youtube video via magnalink600)
All stats via NHL.com
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