It's been a long time since the Buffalo Sabres have been relevant on the ice. In fact one could say that they really haven't been since they came out of the 2004-05 NHL lockout with back-to-back runs to the eastern conference finals. Since then they've tried a number of avenues back to relevancy only to find themselves spinning their wheels as they slid from a middling track of mediocrity into a ditch of desperation that they still haven't been able to fully wrest themselves from.
It's been five years since the 2015 draft that netted the Sabres Jack Eichel and since that time they've missed the playoffs every year with the reverberation of those two scorched-earth rebuild/tank year reaching down to Buffalo's farm system. Their AHL affiliate, Rochester Americans, did not qualify for the Calder Cup playoffs in the two years after the 2015 NHL Draft, they got swept in the first round the next two years and Covid-19 put an end to the 2019-20 season. Down in the ECHL, the "single/double-A" of an NHL farm system, the Elmira Jackals missed the Kelly Cup playoffs two years post-Eichel, then folded. Buffalo moved it's affiliation to Cincinnati where the Cyclones went to the playoffs two years running before Covid-19 cancelled the season.
When former general manger Darcy Regier started a rebuild late into his long tenure in Buffalo beginning with the trade of Paul Gaustad on February 27, 2012, expectations in Sabreland was that picks and prospects would roll in as each of his "core players" were peeled away from the organization. Regier was masterful at getting prime returns for his group as Gaustad yielded a 2012 first-round pick, Jason Pominville got the team a 2013 first and a 2014 second rounder, Andrej Sekera a 2013 second, Thomas Vanek a 2014 first and a 2015 second while GM Tim Murray, who replaced Regier, turned Ryan Miller into a 2015 first round pick and a 2016 third.
In July 8, 2014 blog here on hockeybuzz, the tally up to that point, which included the Miller trade by Murray, was four first round picks (2012, 2013, two in 2015,) three second round picks (two in 2014, one in 2015) and two third round picks (2014, 2016) for Regier's core players
Regier did some solid drafting in his final two seasons and as we look at the 2012 and 2013 draft, the fate of those picks (18 total) are all determined by now. Four have been regular NHL contributors for the Sabres (Zemgus Girgensons, Jake McCabe, Linus Ullmark and Rasmus Ristolainen,) two were traded away and are NHL regulars for other teams (Nikita Zadorov, J.T. Compher) one was traded away and is set to make his mark in net after a long developmental period (goalie Cal Petersen,) one has been bouncing around from league to league which includes AHL, NHL and KHL but is back in the NHL (Mikhail Grigorenko,) two had a good taste of the big time but look like NHL/AHL tweeners at best (Justin Bailey and Nick Baptiste,) and one had a cup of NHL coffee before being relegated to the AHL and various leagues around the globe (Brady Austin.)
Although that group lacked high-end impact players, having eight NHL regulars out of 18 draft picks (close to a 50% clip) is still some very solid drafting. Regier, who was noted not making a deal unless it was favorable to his team, was hell bent on developing his prospects and really didn't make many trades prior to him purging his core, which was a far cry from Murray, his successor.
GM Murray hit Buffalo with a lot of "Murrancy" built up by his predecessor in terms of draft capital but unlike his predecessor, he had a quick trigger and had designs on rebuilding the team quickly after the complete scorched-earth tear-down from 2013-15.
Without much left in Rochester or Elmira, Murray headed into the 2015-16 season using vets atop a group of youngins in the minors as a way to bridge a void left the tank years. Young players like Girgensons, McCabe and Ristolainen, who'd spent minimal time in the AHL were filling roles in Buffalo and there was a gap between that group and Murray's own draft picks that were at least a year or two away from beginning their pro career. The Amerks went into that season with Bailey and Baptist, both 20 yrs. old, who had legit shots at an NHL career and a few players from previous drafts (Daniel Catenacci, Justin Kea and goalie Nathan Lieuwen) to go along with Austin all of whom were long shots to make the NHL. The following season would be a bit different as a wave of drafted players, including 2017 eighth-overall pick Alexander Nylander, headed to Rochester to officially start their pro careers. Nylander had top-six skills and more upside than any player in the Sabres system, but he was only 18 yrs. old.
In the ensuing seasons Murray, along with his successor, Jason Botterill, would use the same formula of heavily relying on AHL vets to lead the Amerks while the farm system tried to catch up. By the 2018-19 season, the last year of Botterill's tenure and four years removed from the 2014-15 tank season, the Sabres had seven NHL regulars on their roster, only two of which were drafted by Murray--Reinhart and Eichel, both second-overall picks--while Regier's picks of Girgensons, McCabe and Ristolainen were joined by two first rounders from Botterill--Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) and Rasmus Dahlin (2018, 1st.)
Things were also looking a bit brighter in Rochester for the 2018-19 Amerks as Victor Olofsson (181st) came over from Sweden and fellow 2014 pick Jonas Johansson (61st) entered his first full pro season. The Amerks roster also included Rasmus Asplund (2016, 33rd,) who joined Nylander from that draft class as well as Will Borgen (2015, 92nd) and Brendan Guhle (2015, 51st) who were apart of Eichel's draft year.
Yet missing from the Sabres during that season were a number of players or picks that Murray traded away between February and June 2015.
Murray went on a splurge that began with him sending 2014 second round pick Brendan Lemieux and a 2015 first round pick to the Winnipeg Jets as part of Evander Kane blockbuster trade in February. Later at the draft in June, he sent another 2015 first round pick to the Ottawa Senators as part of a trade for goalie Robin Lehner. Murray would follow that up with another draft-day trade for center Ryan O'Reilly where he sent prospects Zadorov and Compher, along with Grigorenko and a 2015 second round pick to the Colorado Avalanche. A breakdown of what Murray traded away for players no longer with the club reveals that Lemieux has played 131 games in the NHL and all three players in the Avalanche trade have played in at least 200 NHL games. Ottawa selected Colin White 21st-overall in 2015 and he has played in 155 NHL games for the Sens while the Jets selected center Jack Roslovic with the 25th pick. He has 180 NHL games under his belt.
So what does this all mean? The Sabres are still playing catchup in regards to depth from the big club on down.
Murray was able to land Reinhart and Eichel with the second-overall pick in consecutive drafts while Botterill's "reward" for his club finishing last was drafting Dahlin first overall. Those three represent some very high-end talent, especially the latter two. Yet, because of a dearth of quality talent in the system to surround those three, Buffalo has had to go outside the organization via trades and free agent signings to try and add the appropriate talent. It's usually an expensive ride down a slippery slope.
For this season, in order to fill what seems to be perpetual holes in the roster, the Sabres traded for a No. 2 center in 37 yr. old Eric Staal and signed 2018 league MVP Taylor Hall to a 1yr/$8 million free agent contract, giving them five bona fide top-six forwards. New GM Kevyn Adams also signed a bottom-six center in Cody Eakin to a 2yr. deal to help fill the void at center behind Eichel. What those moves have done is buy them some time as they'll have another year to develop younger players like Mittelstadt and 2019 first round pick Dylan Cozens while still, hopefully, icing a competitive. playoff-worthy team.
As we move through Buffalo's draft classes, the verdict is in on 2014 and 2015. Outside of Reinhart in 2014 they have Olofsson who looks like a top-nine/potential top-six winger and Johansson, who has slowly been developing in net and who still looks as if he at least has NHL-backup qualities. Behind Eichel we find only defenseman Borgen, a probable NHL defenseman in a bottom-pairing role. Two other prospects from those draft classes were traded away--Lemieux, as mentioned by Murray and defenseman Brendan Guhle (51st) to the Anaheim Ducks by Botterill. Of the 15 picks made by Murray in those drafts, four are NHL regulars (Reinhart, Lemieux, Olofsson and Eichel with the jury still out on tree others.
The jury's still out on Murray's last draft class (2016) but it looks like they'll have some contributors at least in Rochester while Nylander was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks for defenseman Henri Jokiharju (2017, 29th,) who's quickly establishing himself as a top-four defenseman. As the organization either integrates or moves on from the last vestiges of Murray's drafting. Players from Botterill's 2017 class have already begun to make their way into the Sabres system beginning with defensemen Jacob Bryson (99th,) who just finished a very productive first full season in Rochester. Goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (54th) played his first pro season last year and defenseman Oskari Laaksonen (89th) just signed his entry-level deal. And from Botterill's 2018 class we have defenseman Mattias Samuelsson (32nd) and winger Matej Pekar (94th) all on entry-level deals set to make their debuts in Rochester.
Adding them to the likes of Mittelstadt, Borgen, Asplund, Brett Murray (2016, 99th,) and Casey Fitzgerald (2016, 86th,) as well as free agents Arturo Routsalainen and Brandon Biro, all of whom are waivers-exempt, plus a directive to cut back on AHL vets, means the Rochester Americans should see a large influx of young, homegrown talent filling their roster. Many of them may end up as serviceable NHL'ers but players like Mittelstadt and Luukkonen have high upsides while any of Asplund, Borgen, Bryson, Samuelsson and Routsalainen could rise above lower/reserve roles on the club. Which is a far cry from where this organization was some five years ago.
It took a while and while nothing's guaranteed, it seems as if the Sabres may have finally been able to overcome stripped-bare farm system and a depletion of quality talent in an ill-advised, short-cut attempt for NHL relevancy at the expense of building and developing through the draft. Where it goes from here remains to be seen, especially with the havoc Covid-19 has wreaked on the NHL, but on paper the Sabres organization/development pool looks better in the near-term and if they stick to drafting and developing, longer-term as well.
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