Published by hockeybuzz.com, 10-19-2019
Never underestimate special teams, specifically the powerplay.
Sure, there's a vocal faction the truly believes that special teams really don't matter much because most of the play is at 5v5. There's a point to be made there and we can look specifically at the Buffalo Sabres who, in the 2016-17 season had the NHL's No. 1 powerplay (24.5%) but finished 26th in the league due in large part to the seventh-worst goal production in the league and a seventh-worst goal differential (-36.)
Analytics has it's place in the world but there are things that can't be charted, such as momentum. And, of course, there's a strong vocal minority that refuse to believe momentum exists in sports, but anyone who's played organized sports outside of intramurals would have a differing opinion. Heck, even in pickup games one can sense riding a hot hand and/or the tide turning at any given moment. That said, things like momentum can't be empirically charted therefore in this Aristotelian age of statistical importance, the unquantifiable doesn't matter.
The Sabres were on the ropes last night early in the first period as the Montreal Canadiens swarmed like angry bees and outshot Buffalo 3-0 through the first 3:59 of the game. Then they took a penalty. Buffalo trotted out their No. 1 powerplay unit and in 1:05 the Sabres pelted Habs goalie Keith "Reuben" Kinkaid with five shots, the last of which went top-shelf on a blast from rookie Victor Olofsson and just like that, the Sabres were up 1-0. The tide would turn again as Montreal scored a shorthanded goal and added another on the powerplay, both by former Sabre Joel Armia, leaving Buffalo with a 2-1 deficit at the end of one period.
Montreal started out the second period swarming once again until...a slashing penalty. Forty-eight seconds later, Jack Eichel was wristing home a game-tying goal that would be the first of three unanswered goals by the Sabres. Granted, the rest of the goal-scoring came at 5v5 and the final one by Marcus Johansson in overtime, but without the Sabres going 2/3 early on to stem the Habs momentum and keep them in it, it would have been a struggle to stay with the flying Canadiens.
Buffalo is 3-0-1 on the year, is second-overall in the league and is rocking the powerplay at a 53.3% clip. They've also grabbed seven of eight points from Eastern Conference teams that they could be battling with for a playoff spot come April. They scored one powerplay goal in a 3-1 win at Pittsburgh, three in a 7-2 rout of the New Jersey Devils, two more in a 4-3 overtime loss at Columbus and two last night in their 5-4 overtime win vs. the Canadiens.
Last season the Sabres went 2-2-0 in their first four games. They were 0/2 on the powerplay in a 4-0 loss vs. Boston, 2/4 in a 3-1 win vs. the NY Rangers, 1/2 in a 4-2 win vs. the Vegas Golden Knights and went 0/7 in a 6-1 loss at Colorado.
Buffalo finished the 2018-19 season with the NHL's 16th-ranked powerplay and a minus-45 goal differential placing them 27th in the league, which happens to be the spot they finished overall.
The powerplay is not the end-all be-all, but it sure makes things a little easier and may slightly alter an opposing team's game-plan. When you see at team like Buffalo with a high rate of success with the man advantage, the goal of staying out of the penalty box may take a little bite out of the game-plan and in a league where parity reigns supreme, any edge a team can get over another is welcome.
There's no way the Sabres maintain a 53% success rate with the man advantage but they're brimming with confidence, another unquantifiable attribute, and presently rank tied for third in the league with nine 5v5 goals. Last season they ranked 21st in that department with 154 goals.
The object of the game is to win and if you score more goals than the other team, you win. Having the man advantage is called a "power" play because ideally that team should be in control and be a threat. That's what the Sabres are doing right now. And it's served them well.
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