The Mood
How many "next year's" are there in the annals of Buffalo sports history? For fans of both the Sabres and Bills there have been way too many, especially this century, but for Jason Botterill, this will be his third season as Buffalo's general manager and as their 2019-20 roster might indicate, he seems to have more of a focus on next year than the upcoming season. Botterill has four forwards, four defensemen and one goalie on the books for 2020-21 and an additional of seven players under their control leaving seven openings to be filled with around $34 million in cap space.
Which is great....for next year.
Heading into tomorrow's season opener the Sabres will have seven unrestricted free agents on the roster with a group of four that illicit a collective groan, if not outright anger, from much of the fan base with their sheer presence signaling betrayal on the part of the organization. They heard Botterill say that there would be internal competition at training camp for jobs but see the same names on the roster and believe there was no competition at all. They see potential in young players during preseason games only to watch them get cut and shipped to their respective leagues while this group of reviled players remain and it draws their ire. With every off season move made, or not made, it would seem as if Botterill and new head coach Ralph Krueger have lost their minds and have no idea what the hell their doing.
Yet lost in all of this is the fact that there will be three new top-nine forwards hitting the ice tomorrow at Pittsburgh plus as many as three new defenseman patrolling the blueline against the Penguins. But it really doesn't matter in the eyes of many, Come Thursday night post-game or Friday morning, those same people will be posting negative individual breakdowns of the reviled ones regardless of the outcome of the game and/or any good things that might have come from the team or any individual players, including the ones their crucifying.
Welcome to Sabres fandom.
Although we won't spend too much time on the great present vs. the future debate, it might be best to remind those who feel betrayed by Botterill this past week that, as he's said many times, he believes in proper player development and a strong Rochester Americans club as a fertile place for the youngins to hone their craft. Regardless of whether fans feel Botterill never really opened up camp to competition, they need to come to grips with the fact that players like Dylan Cozens, Tage Thompson and Rasmus Asplund just might not be ready for the NHL at this time. Yes, they looked good in preseason games, but as we saw with Casey Mittelstadt last season, the NHL is a different beast for young players.
The Sabres are heading into the 2019-20 season with another top-heavy group of forwards, a defense that will look very similar to late last season once Brandon Montour returns to the lineup from injury and they'll have the same goaltending tandem they had last year. It's something that sticks in the collective craw of Sabreland and has been eating away at their faculties all off-season with a rather vociferous group constantly hammering the organization. The vitriol thrown Botterill's way, which includes a rant from a local radio host yesterday elicits bold acts of defiant proclamations where the offended talk of giving up their tickets and giving up on watching their team.
And the puck hasn't even dropped on the new season yet.
As a group they've claimed to have seen this movie far too often, and their thoughts on this particular insanity are manifest in this tweet by Two in the Box's Chris Ostrander, "If the Sabres were a home renovation show, each episode would consist of walking into the house, identifying the problems and then leaving everything exactly as it was."
It's a very real observation that much of the fan base generally agrees with. This is basically the same team as we saw last season. Where this team ends up at the end of it all depends largely on the performance of the coaching staff and that's where we begin our 2019-20 Buffalo Sabres season preview.
The Coaching Staff
The biggest change which should have the greatest impact for the Sabres looks to be the coaching staff led by Ralph Krueger. Although there is a far-reaching philosophy that coaching really doesn't matter, for many (including this writer,) coaching does matter and any notion contrary can be routinely debunked on almost a yearly basis. Just ask the St. Louis Blues, who changed coaches last season and won their first-ever Stanley Cup. Although talent is supremely necessary to win, save for the occasional aberration which still can only get a team so far, getting individual players to leave their egos at the door and play as a team with one focus is a very difficult task handed to a coaching staff every season. Getting their team to run with that and stretch their individual potential farther than they or anyone thought they could is the mark of a head coach with a finger on the pulse of his players and his team.
Krueger already has the respect of individual players on this team. He's done so through a worldly demeanor with personal approach to each player. His on-ice philosophy revolves around speed and pressure and puck possession with offense coming from playing sound defense. He wants structure from his team but also stresses individuality and creativity. It's lot to go after but hustle on the ice and support for each other are the basic tenants of his systems and are easily adhered to if the players are, and remain, motivated.
Right now he has a very motivated team.
His coaching staff includes Don Granato, a veteran of over 25 years behind the bench at an array of levels, Steve Smith the only holdover from the Phil Housley regime and goaltending coach Mike Bales who is considered one of the best in the business. This coaching staff will be charged with the task of getting more out of a essentially the same group of players that finished 27th in the league (76 points) in 2018-19
Of note, Granato is out with severe pneumonia and is being replaced by Amerks head coach Chris Taylor behind the bench.
The Forward Group
Last year the Sabres forward group was very top-heavy led by their top three scorers--Jack Eichel (54 assists, 82 points,) Sam Reinhart (65 points) and Jeff Skinner (40 goals.) After that, the next closest forward production-wise was Conor Sheary who's 34 points was 29 behind Skinner's point total. It's no wonder that once teams figured out how to contain the big three, Buffalo's season turned sour.
Secondary scoring was a huge disappointment and it began on the second line as Mittelstadt, a rookie, took over No. 2 center duties after the team traded away Ryan O'Reilly and his replacement, Patrik Berglund, flamed out and quit the NHL all together. Mittelstadt was ill-prepared both mentally and physically for the rigors of the position and, through no real fault of his own, the team suffered for it.
Botterill tried to address the lack of secondary scoring with the signing of Marcus Johansson and the trade for Jimmy Vesey. Although both would be best served in a third-line role, in Buffalo they'll be probably have more predominant roles to play. Johansson is already there as he's slated for duty as the team's No. 2 center, a position he hasn't played regularly in quite sometime. That's a gamble for Botterill as he was unable to bring in a bona fide top-two center this off season. A lot hinges on that No. 2 center slot and if the Sabres want significant improvement over last season, Johansson will need to hold the fort there. In doing that, Mittelstadt drops to a more comfortable No. 3 slot at center with the hope that he can produce at a clip better than last season while also growing into an eventual return to the second line down the road.
The additions of Johansson and Vesey add top-nine talent to the forwards and help drop other players into roles more suited to their talents and/or level of experience. However, perhaps the biggest development up-front is the rise of first-year NHL'er Victor Olofsson and his ascension to Buffalo's top line during camp.
Olofsson came over from Sweden last year after leading the Swedish Hockey League in goals (27) and made the transition to North American Hockey by leading Rochester with 30 goals. As training camp unfolded the question turned from simply making the club to where he'd fit in the lineup. The 24 yr. old Olofsson has an elite shot and seems to have a knack for finding open ice. Eichel and Reinhart have proven to be a dynamic duo on their own already and Olofsson looked as if he fit right in once Krueger put him on that line this preseason. If he can do his thing on the top line, it means Skinner, a 40-goal scorer last season, can drop to the second line for immediate scoring depth.
With the top line set and the duo's of Skinner/Johansson and Vesey Mittelstadt set for the second and third lines, respectively, Krueger needs to fill in the right side of those two lines and that's where holy hell has broken loose in Sabreland.
As of right now Vladimir Sobotka, who had perhaps his worst NHL season last year for Buffalo is slated to skate on the right side of the second line with Johansson and Skinner. For many it's an abomination in that a player who had such a poor season would get a spot over a younger, more talented player. They'll want to move Vesey up and over or plug in a Swiss Army Knife-type player in Evan Rodrigues, who played well in many positions up and down the lineup last year but somehow looks to be on the outs opening night. What it really comes down to for the most vocal of the fanbase is anyone but Sobotka, who is the most reviled player on the Sabres roster right now.
The other opening is third-line right wing and Curtis Lazar practiced there this week. Lazar is one of a group of Sabres considered to be of the same ilk worthy of fourth-line/reserve duty although he has more speed than any within that group. Both right wing spots could see a lot of changes moving forward, especially with cap-space at a premium for Buffalo.
Another area of consternation amongst the most vocal part of the fan base is the fourth line. Fans have seen enough of Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson and Kyle Okposo and want fresh faces even if it might means a similar or lesser caliber castoff from another team. However, Girgensons and Larsson did a great job flipping the ice for Buffalo last season, which will be their role once again, while Okposo scored 14 goals and 29 points in mostly a fourth-line role. Worthless? Not really. In the case of Okposo, grossly overpaid, but not completely worthless.
Botterill added depth up front and he should get a boost in secondary scoring from their second line and hopefully the Mittelstadt/Vesey line in that they'll be able to contribute more than they did last season. If all works as planned, we should see them up their 23rd-best 2.70 goals per game to the point where it will make at least a small difference in the win column.
The Defense
As stated earlier, Buffalo's defense was a train wreck last season and we'll get the opportunity to see just how much of it can be attributed to Housley's coaching scheme.
Defensive anchor Rasmus Dahlin is now 19 yrs. old after hitting the ice as a rookie his draft year. He was the only defenseman who could be said to have had a good year and one can expect further strides from him as he rises up the NHL ranks amongst defensemen. Dahlin can be paired with just about any defenseman right now and he's the type of player who makes those around him better. For the opener it looks as if he'll be paired with Colin Miller, whom Botterill acquired in June. Miller had played numerous games for the Vegas Golden Knights last season on the top pair with Brayden McNabb while d-anchor Nate Schmidt served his 20-game suspension. That didn't work as planned and Miller was eventually moved down to a more proper third pairing. Once Montour returns from his injury, it should be expected that Miller will be dropping down the lineup.
As Buffalo heads into the season with Montour and Zach Bogosian on the injured list, it wouldn't be surprising to see Jake McCabe and Rasmus Ristolainen logging big minutes. The duo was a good pairing for the Sabres last year and although they did have their problems they managed to hold their own as a pairing much of the time. Ristolainen is yet another player that draws the ire of Sabres fans as he's been a part of the constant failure in Buffalo with many wanting to see him traded yesterday.
Bringing up the rear is Marco Scandella and, probably, John Gilmour.
If Sobotka is the most reviled Sabre for much of the fan base, Scandella is probably a very close second. However, Krueger has given the nine-year veteran the benefit of the doubt while also throwing praise his way during camp. While Scandella will be in more of a defensive role, which includes the penalty kill, Gilmour will be expected to use his speed to get up ice and push the pace. The 26 yr. old Gilmour is getting a prime opportunity to make an impact at the NHL-level and he started by taking with a very strong camp. In doing that he may have pushed a player like 20 yr. old Henri Jokiharju back to the AHL for more seasoning. Which isn't a bad thing.
Overall Buffalo's defenders seemed more organized through preseason and it seems as if they'll be getting more support from the forwards on the backcheck. All of that should push the opposition to the outside more while keeping odd-man situations and easy layups to a minimum.
The Goalies
Those 'layups' just mentioned were constants against Buffalo last season and there's no doubt they had an effect on the Sabres goaltending tandem of Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark. Both goalies were so caught up in anticipating a major disaster on defense that they over committed way too often, went way too far and often times found themselves way out of the play as the opposition lit the lamp.
Buffalo's defensive structure last season was...ummmm...we don't know. About the only thing we do know is that it was a wreck and it had a negative impact on the goaltending. We know Hutton isn't Carey Price caliber and that Ullmark still has flaws that might never be worked out, but the good thing about goaltending is that the structure in front of them will be a huge contributor to their success. If they can play within themselves and within the defensive scheme in front of them they should be able to increase their save percentage and lower their goals-against average, both of which were amongst some of the worst in the league last season.
Special Teams
There's another school that says special teams don't matter because most of the game is played at even strength. It's a fair point based upon ice-time, but special teams are important as they can either augment what's happening in a positive or negative way at any point during the game and/or they can change momentum. A key special teams moment, especially late in the game, can give a club a few extra points or wins, something that every team could use and for a team like Buffalo that will be looking to get every point it can get, having strong special teams will most certainly be a positive.
Buffalo's penalty kill was top-five at one point last year then dropped but still ended up in the top-half of the league. They have plenty of players for PK roles but it will be interesting to see if Krueger wants to push things up ice on the kill if the opportunity presents itself. Eichel played on the PK unit last season while Olofsson did the same in Rochester and they could be looked to for a well-timed offensive counterpunch while shorthanded.
The Sabres powerplay was a different story last season as they generally looked either disjointed or staid.
In a bit of a departure from our "coaching really does matter" philosophy, last year's shortcomings on the powerplay might have been a bit more talent-driven than lack of a coherent coaching philosophy. With Buffalo predominantly using a 1-3-1 set up, four players had their roles on the ice with Dahlin at the point, Eichel on the left half-wall, Skinner in roaming the slot and Reinhart working the front of the net and below the goal-line. The right half-wall was the black hole for Buffalo and Housley tried almost everything there including Dahlin being set up for one timers when had never practiced them. Ever.
The solution to that problem might come in the form of Olofsson.
That right half-wall is Olofsson's spot and teams are going to have a hard time figuring out who to cover as each player on the ice for Buffalo is deadly in their roles. There should be a significant uptick in the Sabres powerplay this season.
The Prediction
For the life of me I've never seen an uproar like what we're seeing with lower-end players on the Sabres roster. Nor do I understand it.. In a way that vociferous group of Sabres fans have a point in that depth scoring is very important, all the way down to the fourth line, and competency on defense, which includes the third pairing being able to move the puck out of one's zone, is equally important.
Having said that, continually bitching about Okposo, Scandella, Ristolainen, Girgensons, and Larsson ultimately has no bearing on what Botterill and Krueger will do with the lineup. The Sabres are in the midst of a transitional period where the young players they are grooming aren't quite ready for the big show. Rather that stunt their development by rushing them (see Mittelstadt,) Botterill and Co. decided it was best to send them back to their developmental leagues and hope that Krueger can get more out of the reviled ones than Housley did.
Good coaching and having this team play with structure should net this team an additional handful of wins. Continued growth from Eichel and Reinhart, a steady season from Skinner and contributions from Vesey and Johansson should solidify that notion and maybe increase that win total. Having Olofsson and Mittelstadt contribute meaningfully would be a key driver while Dahlin and Ristolainen continuing to score, with the latter tightening up on defense, means an even better chance of a significant improvement.
A lot of Buffalo's success will also come from solid play in net. Nobody's asking for the second coming of Martin Brodeur or Dominik Hasek, but tighter play from the goalies behind a more defensive-leaning structure would go a long way in helping this team stay competitive into March.
However, the reality of the Atlantic Division, and the Eastern Conference in general, is that of big strides made by a couple teams this off season. Teams like the Florida Panthers in the Atlantic and the New Jersey Devils in the Metropolitan Division are expected to make a run at a top-three finish in their respective divisions. The Sabres play in what might be the most talented division in hockey with many considering the top three--Tampa, Toronto and Boston--to be locks for top spots in the Atlantic this year leaving only one of two wild card spots available to them. Even if the Buffalo puts it all together and comes up with a season in the 92-point area, which would represent a 21% year-over-year improvement, it probably won't be enough to end their league-long eight-year playoff drought.
There's a faction that said Botterill didn't do enough this off season while other teams were making great strides and there's some truth to that. Yet, we do not know what was available to him either via trade or free agency so it's hard to judge what he could or could not do. What we do know is that nine players on the team are pending unrestricted free agents and a rather large group of youngins will be ready to step into full-time NHL roles next season among them Cozens, Jokiharju, Will Borgen Thompson and Rasmus Asplund.
Of course, that's for next year.
For this year, many pundits are predicting a slight uptick from last year to somewhere around 83 points. The opinion here is that the Sabres managed 76 points in the midst of on-ice chaos and if they could do that under those circumstances, they should be able to get to 85 points with more structure from a more competent coaching staff.
And that's the hill I'll die on this year.
As we head into the season, the overall consensus from the cynics is that this is generally the same team as last season, that coaching won't make a difference and we're looking at another bottom-area finish. The belief here is that coaching will make significant difference, to the tune of an 85-90 point season with a slim chance, if they can get hot for a stretch and stay away from prolonged slumps, of playing meaningful hockey deep into March.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
For posterity sake, here's this year's projected opening night roster:
And here is last year's opening night lineup:
53 Jeff Skinner - 9 Jack Eichel - 23 Sam Reinhart
43 Conor Sheary - 10 Patrik Berglund - 72 Tage Thompson
17 Vladimir Sobotka - 37 Casey Mittelstadt - 21 Kyle Okposo
28 Zemgus Girgensons - 71 Evan Rodrigues - 29 Jason Pominville
6 Marco Scandella - 55 Rasmus Ristolainen
19 Jake McCabe - 26 Rasmus Dahlin
82 Nathan Beaulieu - 8 Casey Nelson
40 Carter Hutton
35 Linus Ullmark
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