The Sabres just finished a three-game western Canada road swing that pretty much turned the Corsi-loving faction of the analytics community on it's head. In Buffalo's 4-3 OT win at Calgary, they were outshot 33-23 and sent only 37 shots the Flames' way while seeing 61 shots attempts at them. Their two losses were just the opposite.
The Sabres got smoked in Edmonton 7-2 to kick off the road trip but were sending all kinds of rubber the Oilers way. Buffalo peppered Edmonton's goalie with 43 shots on goal and sent a total of 72 shots their way while the Oilers managed only 23 shots on goal and 37 total shots. In the Sabres final game of the trip in Vancouver, a 4-3 loss, they had 70 total shots and 39 on goal while the Canucks had 40 total shots and only 23 on goal.
And so it goes.
The only number that really matter revolve around the final score and the Sabres came out on the losing end twice. Props to them for a gutty effort in Calgary where they pulled out a win after getting embarrassed in Edmonton and they should also take heart in knowing that they played a strong game in Vancouver but were victims of their own mistakes.
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Another number that is important right now is 54 and that's the number of points the Sabres have accumulated this season with 34 games to play.
We all know the winning-streak and what it did to expectations, but what transpired afterwards makes for a very difficult road to the playoffs. The Sabres 24-18-6 record includes the two extremes of a 10-game winning streak and a post-streak record of 7-12-4, but in the grand scheme of things should they continue at that overall pace of 54 points in 48 games, which is certainly possible, they'll end up in the low 90's, which probably won't be enough to make the playoffs in the East.
In the Atlantic Division of the Eastern conference Tampa Bay rules the roost with the Toronto Maple Leafs (60 points,) Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens (59 points each) leading the next grouping. The Bruins have the best record amongst that group with 13 points in 10 games and the Canadiens are next with 12 points (also in 10 games.) Both the Leafs and Sabres both slumped as they came in with just six points in eight games.
As we look into the conference, the Sabres right now have the Pittsburgh Penguins directly ahead of them for the second wild card in the East. The Penguins have 58 points and snared 10 points in nine games this month. Just ahead of them in the Metropolitan division are the Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals (59 points each) and the division-leading NY Islanders who went on a tear this month (14 points in 9 games) to get to the top of the division with 60 points.
The Sabres are in their bye week and the good news is that the Bruins, Canadiens, Penguins and Blue Jackets all lost last night.
What's also good news is that we're talking about the playoffs at this point of the season.
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Head coach Phil Housley has had difficulty with his line combinations for weeks, bordering on months, but it seem as if he's got himself some pretty good combos right now.
There is the fire power up top with Jack Eichel (the team's leading scorer,) Jeff Skinner (who leads in goals,) and Sam Reinhart (3rd in points, 2nd in assists.) After that it's been a crap-shoot with a lot of snake-eyes coming up.
However, the lines Housley has gone with these last three games have really worked well for Buffalo. He has Evan Rodrigues centering vets Vladimir Sobotka and Jason Pominville. Rookie Casey Mittelstadt is between Conor Sheary and 21 yr. old Tage Thompson while Johan Larsson and Zemgus Girgensons were joined on the checking line by Kyle Okposo.
Rodrigues has been pretty impressive as of late and he's finally transformed his recent strong play into marks on the scoresheet. In these last three games before the break he leads the team with three goals and in his last five games he's tied for second on the team with five points. Okposo was dropped to the fourth line by Housley but he's been making judicious use of his ice-time with two goals in his last five games while averaging 13:44/game.
As we saw in two of the last three games, as a group they're getting the shots and the opportunities which is a good step but still far from the ultimate goal of putting the puck in the net.
Housley also seems to have found some nice pairings on defense as he has rookie Rasmus Dahlin with veteran Zach Bogosian, rookie Lawrence Pilut paired with workhorse Rasmus Ristolainen and Jake McCabe with Marco Scandella.
As a group they've fared pretty well although individually they've had some real moments, most notably by the Pilut and Scandella, but sometimes that's the price of doing business.
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Dahlin has been exceptional as of late as he shrugged of a mild, mid-season stumble and is back on the attack looking every bit the phenom he was drafted for. The 18 yr. old joined some elite company with a five-game point-streak that match NHL records set by the legendary Bobby Orr, Hall of Famer Housley and Florida's Aaron Ekblad for longest point streak by an under-18 defenseman.
The opportunity was there for Dahlin to break the record as Eichel sent a glorious cross-ice feed to him on the powerplay but he couldn't convert.
In watching him game-in, game-out it's still hard to believe he's only 18 and that he's a member of the Buffalo Sabres.
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Someone who is no longer a member of the Sabres is Patrik Berglund, who came to Buffalo in the Ryan O'Reilly trade. Berglund played all of 23 games for the Sabres this year, was moved to a fourth-line/reserve role by Housley and eventually went AWOL leading Buffalo to terminate the rest of his contract which had over $12 million remaining.
After watching a Buffalo Bills player quit on the team at half-time of a regular season game, Buffalonians didn't know what to make of the situation. We were fed bits and pieces of information but never knew, nor probably never will know the full story. At least for a while.
However, in an interview with a Swedish paper, Berglund shed some light on the darkness he was in and why he left Buffalo and millions of dollars on the table.
The following quotes came from tweets by Uffe Bodin of Hockeysverige.se. Said Berglund, "This season is completely done. There won't be any more hockey for me this season. Right now I need a lot of help and a chance to get away from hockey.
"I don't want to say that this is the end for me, I hope I can find the joy to play again. Right now, I can't tell whether I will play again or not. I'm in the process of healing.
"I want to say that I'm really sorry about leaving and letting Buffalo down as a team. The players were wonderful and I wish the players and the organization nothing but the best in the future. The[y] have not done anything wrong.
"When you feel as bad as I did, and feel what I feel today... I really feel I've taken the right decision. Money is the last thing that means something to me right now.
"Why skate around and do something I don't like anymore, show a facade that everything is all good when I really feel like shit."
"It's a cliche but money doesn't make you happy. I'll give it all up any time just to feel good inside"
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There's another player who isn't happy right now as defenseman Nathan Beaulieu. The 26 yr. old has been cast in a bottom-six reserve role and isn't very happy about it. Although he didn't come right out and ask for a trade, his agent said that it was about playing time.
Beaulieu appeared in the Edmonton game and although every player on the team not named Dahlin struggled mightily, he ended up on the bench in favor of Pilut two days later and he let it be know that he wasn't happy.
No word from Sabres management on what might happen but defenseman Casey Nelson isn't too far away from returning and the trade deadline is just over a month away. Despite the analytics community pointing out numbers that show Beaulieu to be one of Buffalo's better defensemen, Housley seems to be sticking with players he believes in, and that includes Scandella who, justified or not, is the new whipping boy.
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One final note on individual players.
No one in their right mind would pay $6 million for a fourth liner nor is 20 goals for a cap-hit like that very worthy. Kyle Okposo hasn't really played that well through the first 40+ games this season and that's why he finds himself on the fourth line.
However, the 30 yr. old winger seems to have found some life playing with a couple of guys who are all-in every second of every shift. It's not that it's rubbed off on him as Okposo was playing a more aggressive game even before being dropped, but being there may have taken off some of the pressure he seems to be feeling while the duo he's playing with are creating space and opportunities for him.
Okposo has eight goals on the season which, good or bad, ties him for fifth on the team. If somehow Okposo could hit the 20-goal mark, especially with the start he had to this season, and if the Sabres were in the running for a playoff spot come April, a feat like that should be considered an achievement. Does it justify a $6 cap-hit. Not at all, but it makes that hit a bit easier to take.
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One final note, the Sabres powerplay has been terrible as of late and something like that doesn't help the cause.
Since the turn of the calendar year the Sabres have scored only one powerplay goal in 22 opportunities over eight games. Both of those numbers are dead last in the league (with Toronto also scoring only one PPG this month.)
This is a team that led the entire league with a 24.5% conversion rate in 2016-17 under former head coach Dan Bylsma. Last season with Housley and assistant coach Davis Payne taking the helm, the powerplay dropped to 20th in the league with a 19.8% conversion rate. This year they're ranked 22nd with a 17.0% conversion rate.
That is something that might be called, regression.
Just sayin'.
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