How far have the Sabres progressed 48 games in?

Published by hockeybuzz.com, 1-21-2019


Let's get this right out of the way. In 2017-18, the Buffalo Sabres finished dead last in the league becoming the first team to have 31st next to it's name in the standings. The 62 points Buffalo managed was five less than the 30th place Ottawa Senators while their minus-81 goal differential was 11 worse then the Sens.  

Although they had some talent, last season was a disaster for the Sabres but with a little luck in the draft lottery it yielded phenom defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, who was said to be the most highly touted d-prospect in decades. The offseason saw a multitude of changes, including the trade of No. 2 center Ryan O'Reilly and the complete overhaul of a goaltending duo that was near the bottom of the league. 

The problems Buffalo faced this off season were many, as were the changes and heading into the season and we knew they'd be better  overall but weren't sure by how much. In our 2018-19 Sabres preview here we came up with a wide ranging point prediction (from low 70's to low 90's) but figured that they'd be in the upper portion of that range (around 84) with the possibility of moving into the high end and maybe more should the large numbers of "if ______ can do this" scenarios came to fruition.

There were quite a few of those and with the Sabres on a pace to be in that upper portion of that point-range it's time to see how those "if _____ can's" affected the season thus far.

 --if Eichel can stay healthy and score at or near a point/game while bearing the burden of being the captain

(+) Jack Eichel has done that, save for missing a few games. The captain has 52 points (16+36) in 45 games and is the prime mover on the team.

--if Skinner can have another 30-goal (or more) season

(+) Mission accomplished. Skinner has 30 goals in 48 games. Yowza.

--if Reinhart can have a breakout season on Eichel's right wing

(+) Sam Reinhart has already set a career high in assists (33) and is six points away from his previous high of 50 points.

--if they can beat a hot goalie or even a backup

(-) Still having trouble there. Most recent example in Edmonton when they had Oilers goalie Mikko Koskinen (2.78 GAA, .911 SV%) on the ropes but couldn't get one by him when they really needed to.

--if Okposo can return to his 20-goal/55-point self

(-) Not even close and it might be surprising that he's managed 19 points (8+11) so far.

--if the Sabres can get secondary scoring down to the third line

(-) Still a ways to go. Eichel/Skinner/Reinhart--57 goals;  remaining forwards--53.

--if Mittelstadt can make the jump up to second-line center

(-) He hasn't yet and those who've played their in his stead haven't fared very well either.

--if the fourth line can lock down the opposition and meaningfully contribute offensively

(inconclusive) Johan Larsson and Zemgus Girgensons have done well anchoring the fourth line and have exceeded expectations defensively (minus-2 combined) although there's some work to be done offensively (seven goals between them.)

--if they can get a surprise or two offensively and/or defensively

(-) There has been only one pleasant surprise this season as rookie defenseman Lawrence Pilut has been mostly impressive save for some gaffes, some of which have been pretty bad. But all-in-all, he's still in Buffalo, and not in Rochester, stealing ice-time from veterans Nathan Beaulieu and Matt Hunwick.

--if the powerplay can reach top-five status

(-) It's gotten worse going from a 19.8% conversion last year to 17% so far this year and presently ranks 21st in the league.

--if the defense can become tighter

(-) Generally they've played better than last season and coach Phil Housley may have found some pairs to his liking as of late, but there's still a lot to clean up

--if the defense can contribute offensively as a group

(+) 24 goals so far this season led by "the Rasmi" (Dahlin and Ristolainen) with five each. After 48 games last season the Sabres had eight total goals from their d-corps, three by Ristolainen

--if Ristolainen can continue to score but play better defensively

(-) His 30 points through 48 games has him on a pace to set a career high but his minus-13 rating puts him in that negative-20 range...again

--if Dahlin can eventually become that driving offensive force from the back end

(+) Yes he is already. 'Nuff said.

--if Zach Bogosian can stay on the ice and be the big, all-around defenseman he was drafted to be

(+) Bogo has stayed healthy since hitting the ice after a preseason injury and has looked pretty strong at times. The offensive numbers aren't quite there (43 games, 2 goals, 7 assists) but he is sporting a minus-1 rating while logging the second-most minutes (21:39) on the team.

--if the defense in general and Beaulieu in particular can limit their brain farts

(-) Hasn't happened yet. Beaulieu cleaned up his act in the early part of the season but those miscues started creeping in again and he seems to have passed it on to Marco Scandella and rookie Pilut

--if Hutton can hold his own in a starters role

(-) The Sabres looked like they had a dynamic duo in November with Carter Hutton as the clear-cut starter. He's regressed and right now it's very close to a 1A/1B situation with Linus Ullmark. 

--if Ullmark can provide quality back-up minutes

(+) 10-4-3, 2.93 GAA, .914 SV % equals a quality back up

--if Smith can turn the PK into a top-10 unit

(+) New assistant coach Steve Smith's PK unit is ranked No. 10 at this point despite a difficult stretch where they've given up five goals on 18 kills over eight games in 2019

--if Buffalo can get off to a fast start

(+) We'll go plus in that they got off to a solid 7-7-2 start before ripping off a franchise-tying 10-game winning streak

--if they can go on a couple of runs

(+) That one streak along with a couple four-game point-streaks equals a couple of runs

--if they can avoid prolonged slumps

(inc) The longest they've gone without a point is three games (once) and the longest they've gone without a win is four games (0-2-2, once.) Pretty solid save for their recent stretch where they've scattered four wins over their last 14 games (4-9-1.)

--if they can win in overtime and the shootout

(inc) Buffalo is 5-5 in overtime, 3-1 in the shootout which is good, but not quite good enough

--if the Sabres can turn around the 21, one-goal losses they had last season

(+) The Sabres record in one-goal games is 13-6 right now with nine of those wins coming during their winning streak.

Eleven in the plus column, 10 in the minus and three that are inconclusive at this juncture.

Sounds about right for a 24-18-6 team that's still inconsistent but developing pretty well.