Monday, May 5, 2014

Rochester goes down in Chicago, a trying season comes to an end, and a glimpse at where some prospects might end up next season

It didn't seem right that a phantom penalty on Amerks forward Mikhail Grigorenko would lead to a Chicago Wolves go-ahead goal and ultimately bring Rochester's season to a close. With the "hooking" call very late in the second period the Amerks still would have another full stanza to try and knot the score.

Unfortunately they would be up against the AHL's best goalie in the Wolves' Jake Allen and Chicago would close the door on the Amerks season.

Allen, who was pulled after five goals against in a Game 4 loss, was rather pedestrian in the first two periods allowing 2 goals on 16 shots (.875 sv%) in Game 5. Even though the Amerks buzzed the zone throughout the third period they only managed seven shots, with none getting by Allen.

Rochester went down swinging, but ultimately didn't have the horses to run with a Chicago team that finished second overall in the league during the regular season.

That the Amerks could not only make the playoffs, but take the Wolves to Game 5 is a tribute to Rochester GM Kevin Devine and his coaching staff lead by Chadd Cassidy.

At one point with the Sabres going through a rash of injuries, Devine was plugging holes in Rochester with ECHL'ers or anyone else he could get his hands on to ice a full roster.

For instance, goalie Andrey Makarov, who was struggling in the ECHL with the Fort Wayne Comets, got the call to Rochester as Buffalo was in the process setting a record for most goalies used in one season (9.) Both Amerks goalies were eventually called up to be replaced by ECHL'ers Connor Knapp and Makarov. Knapp would eventually get called up to Buffalo because of injury opening the door for Makarov in Rochester.

Which was a good thing for him.


Makarov's work in April (seven straight wins after three losses in his first three games) lead the Amerks to the playoffs after it looked dire. Although his numbers in the playoffs look rather average (3.01 gaa, .907 sv%) he was stout throughout while facing a team loaded with NHL veterans like Joe Corvo and Keith Aucoin and top prospects like Adam Cracknell and Dmitri Jaskin-- both of whom joined the team after the St. Louis Blues were eliminated from the playoffs.

Because of his performance, it would seem as if Makarov has an inside track on a spot with the Amerks next season.

As the entire organization is in reset-mode there will be some jostling this summer as both the Sabres and the Amerks get set for the 2014-15 season.

Some media members and probably plenty of fans will looking for the parent club to go with a full-fledged youth movement and completely gut Rochester. Yet, it doesn't do anyone any good to rush things, especially when the Sabres will probably finish at the bottom of the league next season.

If Game-5 of the Rochester/Chicago series was a "final exam" for the team, they failed. That would lead one to believe that Sabres GM Tim Murray will be cautious next season and not gut the team.

They have said time and again that they want to develop their players in a winning environment. Moving too many players up to the big club too soon is a recipe for another first-round knockout. That's if they make the playoffs at all.

As for the Amerks players, a few stood out at times, have NHL-calibre skills and have paid their developmental dues to earn a shot in the NHL next season.

Defenseman Mark Pysyk looks to be a shoe-in for the big club next season. He was sent down to Rochester in January after logging 42 games with Buffalo.

The "demotion" wasn't for his performance, which was pretty solid at the NHL-level, it was for his development. The Olympics were on the horizon and he needed playing time. He was kept in Rochester afterwards to not only work on things for himself (like creating more offense) but to solidify the Amerks and help them reach the post-season.

Johan Larsson has played in over 120 AHL games for Rochester and the Houston Aeros and he's shown solid year over year improvement from .59 ppg last season (ROC and HOU) to .80 ppg this season.

Projections right now are for him to be a solid bottom-six checker, with sound defensive awareness and some scoring touch. That he can subtly get under the skin of the opposition is a bonus.

Larsson played 29 games with Buffalo last season and acquitted himself quite well. Although he didn't score a goal, he ended up with an even plus/minus rating on a team that had a minus-83 goal differential.

With the bottom-six wide open on the Sabres, Larsson should get his shot. He has the tools and the demeanor to at least hang with the big boys.

Goalie Matt Hackett came to Buffalo with Larsson in the Jason Pominville trade.

The 24 yr. old struggled in Rochester to start the season and ended up losing his starting goalie spot to Nathan Lieuwen. In the process he was also passed over for a call-up to Buffalo in favor of Lieuwen.

As luck would have it for Hackett, the rash of injuries to the Sabres goalies gave him the opportunity to get a good taste of the NHL.

He appeared in seven games for the Sabres and performed well. Although not dominant outside of his first game vs. Edmonton (his only win in eight games,) he showed that he has upside.

Hackett's promotion to the NHL, if it occurs, would be based upon his age and the time he's put in at the pro-level--168 games in the AHL, 21 in the NHL. It might be time to take a longer look and see what he's got in the NHL.

In addition, there might be a couple of other factors at work for Hackett.

The first is the play of Makarov. His play for the Amerks into the playoffs showed the team a glimpse of his upside. He's only 21 and to send him back to the ECHL would be counter productive.

The other factor is Lieuwen.

Lieuwen is 23, and just finished his first full season at the pro level. He stole Hackett's starting job and is the prime candidate to be the Amerks #1 goalie next season.

There are your two goalies for Rochester. It leaves Hackett in limbo as Jhonas Enroth and Michal Neuvirth look to be the Sabres goalies next season. Unless somebody is traded, there's a logjam.

Buffalo had four of their top six prospects playing in Rochester this season--Pysyk, Rasmus Ristolainen, Joel Armia and (eventually) Mikhail Grigorenko.

From a development perspective, it's taken the team over a year to get Grigorenko to the AHL.

The big center was the poster boy for what's wrong with age restrictions in the CHL/NHL agreement. At 19 he was too young for the AHL and he was too raw for the NHL. Murray had no choice but to send him back to Quebec in the QMJHL this season, much to Grigorenko's dismay.

After the Remparts were ousted from the playoffs, Grigorenko joined Rochester. He played in nine regular season games and five playoff games without registering a goal, which was fine for the organization as they wanted him to concentrate on defense and working hard away from the puck.

Grigorenko has the offensive skills--he forced Allen into his three best saves in Game-5--but he needs to develop other aspects of his game. He made great strides during his short stint with the Amerks and another full year in the AHL should do wonders for this development.

Armia made it to North America this year after playing out his pro contract in his native Finland. Of all the players outside of Makarov, and maybe Pysyk, the 2011 first round pick (#16 overall) was a difference maker in the series with Chicago. Just not often enough of a difference maker outside of two games (one loss, one win.)

The skill is there to take over a game and he's adapted well to the North American style of hockey, but he'll be expected to work on his consistency next year in Rochester.

It's a long, grueling season in the AHL and Armia will need to bring it every game, not just two of five like he did in the Chicago series.

The most interesting decision for Murray, as well as Devine and Player Development coach Randy Cunneyworth, will come with Ristolainen.

He, like Pysyk, looks to be a shoe-in for the Sabres next season.

Outside of rookie mistakes and catching up to the speed of the NHL game, he looked like he belonged with the Sabres.

At the AHL-level there were times in Rochester where he dominated.

But if Game-5 is any indication, he still needs to work out some kinks, especially when the heat's turned up in a winner take all game. He was hesitant and indecisive at times and was beaten to pucks and/or areas when the Amerks needed the puck.

It's not that he was poor vs. Chicago. In fact he played very well. But he still could use some fine-tuning both offensively and defensively.

In the grand scheme of things, would it be better for him and the organization to keep him in Rochester, at least to start the year?

Ristolainen would not be happy (he wasn't happy being sent down this season,) but just like with Pysyk in January this year, it's not about his play, it's about his development.

And just like Hackett in a potential goalie logjam in the organization, there are many defensemen in the organization and at least three above him on the depth chart (unless there's a trade.)

The defense-corps for Buffalo next season will consist of Pysyk, Christian Ehrhoff and Tyler Myers in the top-three spots. Jamie McBain is a restricted free agent who very well could be re-signed and Mike Weber has two years remaining on his contract. They should occupy two of the final three spots.

Then there's what to do with Nikita Zadorov.

Next season Zadorov will be in the same spot that Grigorenko was--too good for junior but not allowed to play in the AHL due to his age.

He might end up in a bottom-pairing role with the Sabres because of it.

In that scenario, what spots are left for Ristolainen at the NHL-level?

A #4-6 defenseman on a bottom-feeder in the NHL?

Or would it be better if he was a top-pairing d-man on an improving AHL squad with intermittent call-ups throughout the season?

From a development perspective, the latter. Not only for Ristolainen and the Amerks, but for prospect Jake McCabe as well. He'll be logging his first full season as a pro next year and there's a strong possibility that he'll be on the top-pairing.

There's a long summer ahead and the off-season hasn't officially begun for either league. Much will be done between now, the draft and free agency as Murray and Co. move the organization forward.

Players change teams and players change within themselves.

The variables are many, but with the Sabres and Amerks officially done and the organization in re-set/redefine/rebuild mode, how best to serve these top prospects in a year that promises more suffering in Buffalo should ultimately take precedent.



Addendum:  nhl.com's Chris Ryndak gives a rundown of the NHL-record nine goalies used by the Sabres in the 2013-14 season.


No comments:

Post a Comment