Yesterday the NY Islanders made two very big announcements. The first was that they re-signed goaltender Jaroslav Halak to a 4 yr./$18M contract.
Isles GM Garth Snow sent a 2014 fourth round pick to Washington for Halak on May 1 to stabilize his goaltending situation.
He followed the Halak extension with an announcement that the team would send their 2015 first round pick to Buffalo to complete the Thomas Vanek trade.
Vanek was a disaster for Snow on a number of levels, which is something the Isles will deal with. But from a Sabres perspective Buffalo now officially receives the Islanders 2015 first rounder to go along with the second round pick they already received from that trade.
The only real question mark for the Sabres in all of this is where that first rounder will be in the 2015 draft.
Snow is intent upon limiting the damage by making a run for the 2015 playoffs. Halak was the first step and one can bet that the Isles will be extremely aggressive in the off season in an attempt to shore up the blue line and add some secondary scoring.
Any pick outside of the playoffs is in the Connor McDavid Sweepstakes. Which could lead to another disaster.
No projections here as to what will transpire, but the Islanders will have a tough road to hoe in their quest for the playoffs.
Based upon the standings last season they'll need to be 15 points better to make it in as one of two wild card teams. The Islanders had 79 points while both the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings had 93 points. With only 25 regulation/overtime wins, the Isles would have lost the tie-breaker to both teams.
They would need to be 16 points better than the division's third place team, Philadelphia, and 18 points better than the second place NY Rangers.
The Pittsburgh Penguins won the division with 106 points.
The Islanders have made the playoffs once since 2007. That would be the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season when they secured the last seed.
They went 24-17-7 that year and had an even goal differential.
Between 2007 and 2012 here was their record, goal differential and league finish:
- 2007-08: 35-38-9; (-49) 26th
- 2008-09: 26-47-9; (-78) 30th
- 2009-10: 34-37-11; (-42) 26th
- 2010-11: 30-39-13; (-35) 27th
- 2011-12: 34-37-11; (-52) 27th
As with the stock market, past results do not guarantee future performance.
Were the Islanders on the rise only to be derailed by injuries and misfortune? Or was the 2012-13 season a mirage? If they are on the rise, will Snow be able to put together a team that can take the next step and make the playoffs?
The Islanders are going to have a real tough time making it to the post season with the way the divisions are constructed and how the playoff seeding is formatted.
The Rangers are in the Eastern Conference Finals and look to be surging towards Cup-contender status regardless of this year's outcome.
The Philadelphia Flyers are an incredibly tough team despite holes in their lineup but most importantly may have found themselves a legitimate #1 goalie.
And the Pittsburgh Penguins still have a strong core that should keep them in the top-3 despite major changes.
Then there's the perennial playoff Red Wings as well as a Blue Jackets club that's getting stronger and more confident.
Washington, Toronto and Ottawa all missed the playoffs this past season after making them the previous year.
That being said, if Snow misses the playoffs again, but can add some players to avoid a complete meltdown, their pick, now in the hands of the Buffalo Sabres, could fall somewhere between the 7th and 14th. The chances of winning the lottery in 2015 (barring any changes by the NHL) are as follows:
- 7th: 4.7%
- 8th: 3.6
- 9th: 2.7
- 10th: 2.1
- 11th: 1.5
- 12th: 1.1
- 13th: 0.8
- 14th: 0.5
For example.
The Cleveland Cavaliers won the 2011 NBA lottery with a 2.8% chance (with the #10 overall pick they received from the LA Clippers, no less.)
Two years later they won it again, this time with a 15.8% chance.
And three days ago, the Cavs went into the NBA draft lottery with a 1.7% chance of getting the #1 overall pick and came out on top.
Nothing as dramatic as that has never happened in the NHL since the lottery was introduced in 1995. The most significant move was the Chicago Blackhawks moving from 5th to the top spot in 2007.
Regardless, the Sabres are loaded in the next two drafts with first and second rounders.
As of right now they have one first and three seconds in the 2014 Draft.
In the 2015 Draft, as of right now, the Sabres have three first rounders and two seconds.
Load it up, baby.
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