The 2013 NHL Draft will be upon us soon. The Buffalo Sabres, for the second season in a row, have four picks in first two rounds. They have the #8 and #16 in the first round, #38 and #52 in the second.
Many believe that the team should do anything they can to get into the top-3 this year to land a "franchise player." Sabres GM Darcy Regier is actively trying to move up, but going from 8th into the top-3 is nearly impossible, and as we've seen, not many picks in the 4th-6th spots get moved.
Chances are the Buffalo Sabres will be drafting somewhere around #8.
The following series looks at past drafts from 1979-2003, bookending what are widely considered the best drafts ever over that 25-year span, and what that might mean for the Sabres in this year's draft.
Having four of the top 52 picks in the draft this year, especially if it's as deep as most predict, puts the Buffalo Sabres in a very good position to add organizational depth. And dependent upon how deep the top talent goes, the Sabres may even land themselves an impact player at #8.
Depth is good and an impact player is great, but an elite player would be much better and that's what Sabres GM Darcy Regier is aiming for as he tries to move up the ladder into the top-three. But, the odds of that happening are pretty slim as it stands right now.
Kevin Devine, the Sabres Director of Amateur Scouting was on WGR talking about the draft the other day.
In the interview Devine was directed towards the possibility of moving up in the draft which he addressed, "We have had conversations with Colorado... I think it’s how far they want to move back." (those intimations sent Jeremy White in a frenzy)
Adrian Dater of the Denver Post laid it out like a bucket of cold water saying that any move from eighth to the first overall pick, to him, is a pipe dream (sorry, Jeremy.) When Dater was GR's on Schoppsie and the Bulldog, he said that the 'Lanche are interested in one of the three top players and that's where the negotiation for the #1-overall pick begins.
Overall, Devine looks at the draft as having Seth Jones and Nate MacKinnon clearly up top with a couple of drop-off points after that in the top-10. The next drop-off point is a large grouping of players from the 10th or 11th pick down to the lower to mid 20's. Devine has stated before, and he reiterated again, that there probably isn't much of a difference between the 10th/11th and the 20th.
In the last segment we looked at the Sabres sticking at #8 with thier first pick and trying to pull up that 16th pick into the top-10.
Today we get greedy.
Trying to add a third 1st-round pick
Far be it for anyone outside a team's "war room" to try and anticipate any kind of trade, much less any particular pieces involved. Although it is fun to play arm-chair GM.
With the Buffalo Sabres in rebuild mode and their old core being dismantled piece by piece, it wouldn't be suprising to see one of Ryan Miller or Thomas Vanek--maybe even both--being moved at the draft.
Both Miller and Vanek are core players and both have one year reamaining on their contract. They're the top-two players on the Sabres and two highly regarded, well paid star NHL'ers.
And both right now should be worthy of landing a first-round pick (amongst other things.)
If the Sabres want to load up with a third 1st-rounder in a deep draft, the trick is finding a team willing to move assets, including a first round pick this year, to land Miller or Vanek as either player could only be a rental for the upcoming season.
It should be noted that Miller has a limited no-trade clause where he can name up to eight teams that he can veto a trade to. Vanek does not.
Of all the teams between #7 and #20, there may be only a couple ways for the Sabres to land another pick in the first round.
Edmonton (7th,) Phoenix (12th,) Winnipeg (13th,) and the NY Islanders (15th) all could use a bonafide #1 goalie like Ryan Miller. Unfortunately, those four would probably be included in his no-trade list. They could also use a scorer like Vanek, but it's unlikely they'd forgo their rebuild for a one-year rental.
The Columbus Blue Jackets at 14th and 19th have a Vezina candidate in goal. They could use the scoring prowess of Vanek as well, but a one-year rental does not make a lot of sense for them either.
Ottawa (17th,) Detroit (18th) and even Dallas (10th) all represent possible trade-partners as does New Jersey at #9 and all are decent possibilities for either Miller or Vanek. For example, Ottawa has said they're willing to give up prospects (and presumably their first-rounder) to land a scoring forward like Vanek.
But the two best teams to trade with might be Philadelphia (11th) and San Jose' (20th.) And in both instances a cap-favor from Buffalo might be needed to get a deal done.
The Flyers have two potential cap-buyouts in goalie Ilya Bryzgalov and foward Daniel Briere and, as usual, they're at the salary cap ceiling. They wouldn't hesitate to use both this season in order to get cap-compliant.
But for Flyers GM Paul Holmgren, having to buy out only one this year would be a better course of action.
As the Flyers continue their seemingly endless search for a #1 goalie, Miller, even at his salary and for possibly only one year could be appealing. Holmgren has never been affraid to go after a player, or position, he desires.
He went after, and landed, Bryzgalov as "the missing piece" in 2011 (saying goodbye to 2012 Cup-winners Mike Richards and Jeff Carter in the process) but "Bryz" was below average in his first year (3.46 gaa/.887 sv% in the 2012 playoffs) and the team missed the playoffs last season. He has $34.5M left on that albatross of a contract.
Briere is a clutch veteran who excells in the playoffs, but is 35 yrs. old and is slowly being passed up by a strong group of young, talented forwards who count less than his $6.5M cap-hit. Which makes him a buy-out candidate.
Could the Flyers buy out Bryz and pull off a Briere plus the 11th pick for Miller trade? In that instance, the Flyers would free up nearly $6M in cap-space for next season and would get a #1 goalie. They would also have one more buy out that they could (and most likely would) use at a later date.
Would the 11th pick in the draft this year be worth it to them?
Over in San Jose', the Sharks made a strong run to Game-7 versus the defending Stanley Cup Champions.
With excellent goaltending, a rock-solid defense and top-line scoring from their star players, San Jose' looked to move past their status as "underachievers" in the playoffs and almost pulled off the feat.
Were it not for a lack of secondary scoring, they would've made it past Los Angeles. They scored 10 goals in the seven game series, three goals total in the final three games.
Up-front, top-six forward Patrick Marleau is on left wing. Raffi Torres and TJ Galiardi, two energy forwards, are behind him on the depth chart.
Having a player like Vanek on the top-line would bolster their top-six nicely.
The Sharks have had this core group of forwards together for quite a few years, but looking at the cap-chart for the Sharks, next season could be the last hurrah for this group as four key players will hit free agency.
GM Doug Wilson had this to say about the team and it's future, "There's something special about this group. We’re not a team that’s going to miss the playoffs for five or seven years and go into a rebuild. We don’t believe in that. We want to reset on the fly and it only works when you have players that understand what it is we’re trying to accomplish and participate in it.”
Vanek has a hefty $7.1M cap-hit and for a team like San Jose' that will surely be up against the cap to begin with, trading for him just won't work.
Unless...
Forward Martin Havlat and his $5M come back as part of the return.
Havlat seems to have worn out his welcome in San Jose', has two years left at that cap-hit, and seems to be a buyout candidate.
Adding a $2M player to their cap doesn't seem like a fiscally responsible thing to do for the Sharks. But adding a top-line winger and proven playoff scorer like Vanek for the $2M difference makes a lot of sense.
They will need to do some juggling, possibly moving a spare part or two, (say Adam Burish--$1.85M cap-hit,) which is something they'd be looking at anyway.
Would the 20th pick in the draft, amongst other things, be worth it for the Sharks in order to go "all-in" this year? And can ridding themselves of Havlat's contract without buying him out make a trade like this work?
The variables involved in either the Flyers or Sharks situations are numerous (including no-trade clauses for both Briere and Havlat,) but the basis is there for a good match in either case.
The Flyers and Sharks can take these key pieces and move forward for at least the next season while shedding unwanted salary.
The Sabres could add (at the very least) another first-round pick in a deep draft this season and futher their rebuild.
Buffalo has the cap-space to bring in either buyout candidate (or even both) and would have two years to decide how they'd fit into the grand scheme of things.
With the future of both Miller and Vanek tenuous, the team in rebuild mode and a deep draft class staring them straight in the eye, loading up with three top-20 picks this year would be a solid consolation prize if Regier is unable to move up from either of their draft spots this year.
Sometimes ya gotta do what ya gotta do.
Next: What Regier could, should and possibly will do leading up to the 2013 draft.
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