this is the fourth of a four-part look at the 40th edition of the buffalo sabres
one of the top defenses in the league last season will once again be anchored by reigning vezina winner, ryan miller...the defense will be relatively the same anchored by a young tyler myers and the offense will be pretty much the same save for the addition of a young tyler ennis and veteran rob niedermayer...
last season the sabres finished first in the northeast division with 100 points, six ahead of the ottawa senators...they got to that point by doing what they'd failed to do the previous two seasons--beat opponents that they should have...that, imo, is a direct result of the additions of mike grier and steve montador, especially grier, who provided veteran leadership both on and off the ice...
the defensively responsible '09/10 edition of the sabres were fourth in the league in goals against (2.45,) sixth in the league (3rd in the conference) in goal differential (+28,) had the second best pk in the league (86.6%) and did not give up a lead after two periods all season...
on the down side they were 17th in the league in pp (17.6%,) were 4-6 in shootouts with the 15th best shot% (31.9) and were bounced in six games by the boston bruins in the first round of the playoffs...
the way things are shaping up, it looks as if it will be a battle between the sabres and bruins for the n.e. division crown although no one should count out the ottawa senators who came on with guns blazing after they were healthy...boston, though, is being heralded around the league as the class of the n.e. with the sabres second and ottawa or montreal coming in third...
why is boston being crowned champ?...seems as if the drop to third in the division (14th overall, 91 pts.) last year is being considered an aberration after claiming 116 pts. in the '08/9 campaign...plus there's the addition of former florida panther nathan horton which, they hope, will help boost scoring...the bruins went from an average of 3.29 goals/game, 2nd in the league (det) in '08/9 to dead last in '09/10 with a 2.39 average...previous goals/game average are 2.51 (24th) in '07/8, 2.56 (25th) in '06/7 and 2.78 (24th) in '05/6...unfortunately, #1 center marc savard will be out for a while, which doesn't really help them out in the scoring dept...
will tuukka rask will continue the success he had last season replacing tim thomas?...rask lead the league in gaa (1.97) and save % (.931) in 45 games...will he be able to duplicate that?...who knows...it's a big jump to being a full-time starter...it's doubtful rask will be able to top those numbers as his season stretches to 60-plus games and there should be a drop-off...how much? (shrugs)...
so, the aberration seems to be the '08/9 season when tim thomas became the reincarnation of gerry cheevers and every bruin seemed to have a breakout year on offense...a microcosm of that incredible offensive season was former sabres' 8th round pick dennis wideman who was a veritable dan boyle scoring 50 points that year, yet was allowed to walk after a more realistic 30 point '09/10 season...
as for the sabres?...yeah, as miller goes so does the sabres...any comparisons to rask should be reigned in simply for the fact that miller is in his 5th season as a # 1 goalie and has incrementally improved his game every season which eventually lead to the vezina trophy last year...there's no reason to think that there will be a precipitous drop in his stats, unless the team lets him down...
on d, you have basically the same group of guys when you substitute shaone morrisonn for toni lydman and jordan leopold for hank tallinder...they definitely gain size with morrisonn and leopold should have no trouble surpassing the 20 points that tallinder put up last season...even if craig rivet is hobbled by injuries once again, he can't fall much further than a poor '09/10 season...steve montador had a great playoff and should anchor the third-pairing throughout the year without getting benched (hopefully)...and there are the same question marks with the 6th defenseman this year as last--chris butler, andrej sekera or mike weber...even if they have the same inconsistent season they had last year, any fall on the defensive end should not be major...conversely, if rivet, butler, sekera and/or weber have solid campaigns, the d will be better...
one of the questions going into the season is, "will tyler myers go through the dreaded 'sophomore slump'?"...he had a calder-winning season last year and many think that he could take a bit of a fall...i'm not one of them...at the very least he should be able to equal what he achieved last season...it's not that much of a reach to think that he'll be even better...he has extreme confidence when it comes to wheeling the puck up-ice and pinching in from the point...as long as someone has his back (morrisonn,) he'll be able to do even more...although he's still green (not mike) on the pp, he's shown that he has the patience to wait for a shooting lane which should produce more points for him and the team...on d he still has the condor-reach and can still cover alot of ice...anyone he's partnered with will immediately see his game improve a notch or two...
on offense, the same questions remain, will "the core" go to the dirty areas to get the goals and will they show a commitment to team d?...there have been no real changes in the top-six, the top-two centers, derek roy and tim connolly, should be able to match their totals from last season, barring a connolly injury, of course...thomas vanek had his lowest goal total in four years...he averaged 40 goals in the previous three seasons, but suffered through an injury-riddled '09/10 campaign...there's no reason why he shouldn't hit the 35-40 goal mark this season if he's healthy...jochen hecht bounced back last season with points on-par with his career numbers...it's possible that he could see a slight offensive down-turn, but i'd bet that his defense will remain strong...jason pomminville should continue his consistent play and at least equal last season's output...and drew stafford?...the sabres basically were without a #1 rw all season last year...no reason why they should fear being without one again...
as for the bottom six, the addition of rob niedermayer adds more veteran experience which should help them get over playing the likes of their nemesis, the ottawa senators...mike grier will be back and so will paul gaustad...cody mccormick adds size, grit and attitude and nathan gerbe should add some scoring to the bottom-six...matt ellis, who did yeomans work will be available and fan-favorite patrick kaleta hits the ice as a perennial gadfly who can tinkle the twine effectively...
the pk was rock-solid last season and it could be even better with the addition of niedermayer...he and hecht, grier, pomminville and roy will be go-to guys up-front on the pk...connolly an mccormick will also be used...vanek had played the kill two seasons ago notching a couple of shorties...would be great to see him in the rotation as well...one area where the sabres will miss tallinder and lydman will be the pk...for some reason they seemed more comfortable on the kill than five-on-five...even if they do drop, they should still be one of the top-five pk teams in the league...
the pp, hopefully, won't be as weak as it was last season (17th overall)...the clamoring for a "pp-specialist" this off-season fell on deaf ears and fell to the shoulders of tyler myers on the point, with expectations that jordan leopold will pitch in as well...all-in-all the sabres have the talent on the pp, but for some reason they choke as a pp-unit...an uptick in success on the pp will only help, and there's no reason to think that the pp could get any worse...
one big question, barring any personnel moves, is where tyler ennis will play...the kid's got something special going on and should have a shot at the top-six, but as a center he's behind roy and connolly and as a lw he's behind vanek and hecht...some clamor for hecht to drop to the third-line...not a problem, except for the fact that hecht, connolly, pomminville line was the best, most consistent line on the sabres...and i can't see ruff breaking that up...third-line for ennis seems to be were he'll start the season with niedermayer at center...
the '09/10 edition of the buffalo sabres did change, a little more than people think...they add more bulk with morrisonn, neidermayer and mccormick while myers added 15 lbs to his lanky frame and ennis added 5 lbs without losing his "greazziness"...they're coached by one of the best in the league and they have one of the best goalies in the league...there were a couple of players who had off years, yet none, arguably, had years that could be considered a statistical aberration on the plus side...they basically have the same team albeit they're a bit bigger and they will have all the same attributes and deficiencies this season as they did last season...they are a year older as a group, with many of them in their prime...their goalie should, once again, be one of the best in the league...they're coached by one of the best in the league--lindy ruff--and most have bought into his system...
although there are holes up-front (most notably #1 center and #1 rw,) and cup-consideration may be a little overzealous, the staid, sure course of gm darcy regier and the steady hand of ruff should mean no major fall-off from the '09/10 season...which means that there's a good possibility that they will finish:
1st in the northeast
3rd in the conference
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