Thursday, September 30, 2010

2010/11 buffalo sabres, part 3: up-front

this is the third of a four-part look at the 40th edition of the buffalo sabres

during the tenure of darcy regier and lindy ruff, the buffalo sabres have gone through stylistic changes...from the "hardest working/lunch-bucket team" of the late 90's during the hasek/peca years, to the "run-and-gun" years of daniel briere/chris drury, to the present "five-man-as-a-unit/puck-control/two-way" style...all the while ruff has had to adapt his approach to the personnel on hand, especially up-front...the years between these "successful eras" were wrought with poor displays, although none represented a drop lower than fifth-worst in the nhl--the pre-drury/briere 2002/3 season...

to date, the sabres are still transitioning away from the wide-open style that took them from consecutive eastern conference finals to two consecutive non-playoff/mid-level draft-pick seasons before last season's northeast division crown...much of non-playoff years had to do with the personnel that were geared towards "the new nhl," which faded in the late winter of the 06/7 season, leaving the team with a bevy of "soft-but-skilled" players in a bigger, grittier nhl...in addition, regier and his scouts had invariably placed their bets on numerous euro draft picks in that same "soft-but-skilled" mold...the slow, methodical approach to change that's embedded in regier's demeanor still remains, but the last few seasons starting with the trading of first-rounder jiri novotny (22nd overall in 2001) in february, 2007 then the noticeable absence of "euro-picks" in the draft (none since fourth-rounder felix schutz in 2006) as well as the sheer bulk of the '09 draft (averaging 6' 2.5", 208 lbs) do indicate that the sabres are well on their way to a bigger, tougher style of play that's consistent with what it takes to win in the post-new nhl era...

yet, there are still many holdovers up-front from the "run-and-gun" days who are "soft-but-skilled"...these players like derek roy, jason pomminmville, drew stafford, as well as tim connolly and jochen hecht are considered "the core" by regier and constitute most of the top-six on a sabres team that's widely considered one of the easiest to play against in the nhl...although one of "the core" on the back-end, hank tallinder, was allowed to walk at the end of his contract, those that remain up-front, because of regier's refusal to easily part with "his own," will probably play out their contracts and leave in the same manner...it's safe to assume that the same top-six forwards with whom the fan-base has grown tired of will, once again, be "leading the charge" up-front, with the exception of possibly 2008 first-round pick (26th overall) tyler ennis who seems poised to supplant one of them...

using "strength up the middle" as a springboard to a look at the buffalo sabres up-front, we'll begin with a look at the center position...

one of the most disappointing aspects of the sabres past two off-seasons has been their lack of obtaining, or having one of their top two grow to become, a viable #1 center...although the sabres as a whole are not as bad down the middle as, say, the toronto maple leafs or columbus blue jackets, conversely they're not as strong as the pittsburgh penguins or philadelphia flyers either...that being said, the lack of a true #1 center is something that will hinder their ultimate goal of winning the cup...

derek roy--the three post drury/briere years saw roy lead the sabres in scoring with 81, 70 and 69 points, respectively...why is he not considered a #1 center on the sabres?...probably because he really doesn't exude leadership qualities, seems to reamain inflexible to changes in style and, although he produces points, not very many seem to be of the drury-like "clutch" variety...yes, he does have game-winning goals using a very loose definition of the term, but he went goal-less in the '09 playoffs (6 games)...all in all, though, he is a solid #2, plays a very capable #1 under these circumstances and is signed to a very cap-friendly hit of $4m which makes his production-to-price ratio extremely cap-friendly...

tim connolly--arguably the most talented sabre, as of this point...yet, he's also been the most injured, and the most uninspiring since his stellar, yet injury-shortened, '05/6 playoff campaign...last season connolly played the most games since the '02/3 season (73) and he had the most points of his career (65)...yet, come playoff time he disappeared...as mentioned with roy, connolly doesn't exude leadership, nor does he seem to come up big when it counts...he remains, much to the dismay of the organization and fans, a solid, potentially explosive #2 who is capable of handling #1 responsibilities who, for whatever reason, doesn't seem like he'll reach the potential his skill warrants

rob niedermayer--could end up being a stellar "under the radar" acquisition by regier, much better than the signings of steve montador and mike grier last season...although 35 years old, niedermayer still has speed and adds veteran saavy and leadership as well as a cup-ring (ana, '07)...a very good bottom-six pick-up for the sabres who will log plenty of ice-time in crucial defensive situations...he will be the teacher for the next generation of "core" players like tyler myers, tyler ennis and nathan gerbe...

paul gaustad--"goose," where art thou?...it was thought that he would continue to develop and turn into a solid third-line center who could win the crucial draw as well as park his 6'2", 230 lb frame in front of the net five-on-five and on the 2nd-unit pp as well...unfortunately, gaustad seems to be inching towards getting the unwelcome moniker of "injury-prone" having missed 37 games the last two seasons and only having played only one full season ('07/8) in his five-year career...gaustad is thought of as a leader on the team and he's still respected in the locker-room, but injuries and inconsistencies have tarnished the luster on his leadership abilities...

tyler ennis--tyler ennis is a center...he was a center when he won the rookie of the year award last season in the ahl...the only reason he's on the wing is that he's still young and neither roy or connolly have been moved..."greazzy" is the way that ruff aptly described him as he weaved his way in and out of the opposition to the tune of nine points in 10 games during the regular season, as well as a goal and three assists in six playoff games...and the kid's got spunk as well...he'll be perched on the lw this season, slickly weaving in and out of traffic in the opposition zone, a magnet for the puck, seemingly always in the right position...playing either wing position will only hamper him as he's confined to half the space he could be using...center should not be far off and it'll be interesting to see if he gets the call up the middle should something happen to either roy or connolly...

other centers include a re-signed matt ellis for fourth-line energy and depth who looks to be headed to portland along with felix schutz and big center luke adam...

--left wing--

thomas vanek--vanek was playing most of the last two seasons battling injuries...he declared himself completely healed for the first time in two years at the end of the '09/10 regular season, potting 5 goals in two games while dominating play at times...in the playoffs vs. boston, he was such a force in game one that bruin johnny boychuk took him out on a breakaway in game two, sidelining him for the next three games...vanek did come back for game six, albeit at about 75%, and gave it his all in a losing cause...hopefully he will say goodbye to the double albatross of the mega-contract received in '07 and the recent spat of injuries to take his place amongst the leaders of this team...his performance in game six seems to point to him breaking through yet another thresh-hold--ready to prove that he can carry the weight of a letter affixed to his jersey...

jochen hecht--the cries for the sabres to rid themselves of hecht and his contract were at a fever-pitch during the '08/9 season, easily his worst as a sabre...his two-way game was in shambles and his confidence plummeted as he took on the role of top-six center...it was a disaster...placed back on the wing flanking connolly and jason pomminville last season, hecht returned to form posting 21 goals and 21 assists while leading the team in plus/minus with a plus-14...even more significant was his contribution to the #2 pk in the league...an injury to his pinkie finger put him on the sidelines late into the season and he did not play in the boston playoff series where two areas were lacking in the sabres game--scoring from connolly and, more importantly, the pk, which allowed 6 goals on 22 kills, just 72%...

nathan gerbe--the odds are still stacked against this fireplug...he's built, packing in 175 lbs on his 5'5" frame, but he's still getting knocked off the puck and, as of late, he needs to watch out for concussions which seem to be entering into the equation...no reason why he shouldn't be on the sabres roster this season...the '08/9 ahl rookie of the year does have a scoring touch and is a winner, but where he'll fit in with this group is a question...

cody mccormick--mccormick is a great story...signed in august '09 as an unrestricted free agent, mccormick headed to portland to add muscle and grit to a thinned, and small, pirates line-up...he had decent numbers--17 goals and 12 assists in 66 games...as luck would have it, for him, the sabres sustained some injuries late in the season and the team as a whole were getting shoved around too easily in thier playoff match against boston...enter mccormick...in three games he proved that he wasn't affraid to work his ass off every minute on the ice, wasn't affraid to barrel towards the net and wasn't affraid to hit someone...he even registered two assists...put it all together and the sabres brass took notice...they liked what they saw and signed him to a one-way, $500k contract (interesting to note that at the time, two teams were very interested in the free agent as well)...sabres-fans should pretty much expect the same from mccormick and hopefully he'll bring what he brought in the playoffs...he can play either wing and center

no other left-wingers of significance are close to the big club, although 2008 5th-round draft-pick jacob lagace made some noise in the qmjhl tallying 35 goals and 38 assists in 60 games

right wing

jason pomminville--"pommer" is one of "the core," but of those, he's the one that i think will continue to improve every season for many years to come...many would also like to paint him as one of the overpaid players on the sabres and it's a valid point, but what he brings to the team is a quiet, solid, consistent two-way game with the ability to score meaningful goals...and he's played every game for the sabres over the last four years...naysayers will point out that he does that because he plays a non-contact style, which is ok by me...he and hecht anchor the pk which, as previously mentioned, ranked #2 in the league last season...he also plays on the first unit pp although his skills are better suited to a slot position rather than on the point, where he's most likely to be found, out of necessity...pomminville, like drury before him, always seems to pick up his scoring pace during the second half of the season, which isn't a bad trait, especially if it means production in the playoffs...

mike grier--a gritty, hard-working vet who was brought back to the team last year for leadership, grier is respected by the entire organization and he was instrumental in getting this group to do the right things in order to make the post-season again...grier is slowing down yet still remains a viable bottom-six winger and staunch defender

patrick kaleta--what he brings is energy...he's a gadfly that continually pesters the other team into doing stupid things--a guy you'd hate were he not on your team...kaleta has a knack for putting the puck in the net when the opportunity arises as witnessed by his 10 goals on 64 shots and one goal on five shots in the playoffs...is it too much to hope that he turns into the second coming of claude lemieux?...yeah...but his game is shaping up to slowly approach that...if he can keep away from injuries, which have been creeping into his career, the local-boy should have a long, relatively productive career in his hometown as a solid teammate and fan-favorite

drew stafford--(shaking head)...he has the size 6'1", 216 lbs...he has the ability to score...he has the ability to work the corners...he even has the ability to hit and fight...and had he used all of this on a consistent basis, he'd have been mentioned sooner on the list of right wingers...unfortunately he doesn't...what's questioned is his commitment to the game of hockey, his heart and desire...consider him the opposite of the kaleta...you can achieve relative success with a big heart and little talent...very little meaningful can be achieved with talent and no heart...staff will be given the opportunity to prove his worth early on slotted with vanek and roy but, he'll be looking over his shoulder at:

zack kassian--the big (6'3", 226 lbs) winger is making noise, and has been (for various reasons) since the sabres drafted him 13th overall (same as stafford) in the '09 draft...he had two major missteps last season, one on the ice (a 20-suspension for a dirty hit) and off-ice (bar brawl)...he says he's learned from it and he came into camp on a mission--to make it hard for the sabres to cut him...kevin devine, head of amateur scouting for the sabres, said that kassian was what they've been looking for, a big, gritty game-changing winger who can score...it's early on, but the sounds of crunching hits is getting louder, especially for stafford...

other rw's: mark mancari--he's had ample opportunity to bring his scoring, along with his size to the sabres, but doesn't seem to have what it takes to make the jump to nhl...the rest are recent draftees who will be working on their development...

all-in-all, lindy ruff will have a tough time putting together his top-twelve up-front...based upon last season's success, it looks as if the hecht, connolly, pomminville line will remain together...odds are that roy and vanek will be paired with stafford at first...there really isn't a 1st line and 2nd line on this team the way it's constructed...niedermayer will be in the line-up as well as grier, kaleta and goose...what remains will be how to fit ennis and mccormick in...then there's gerbe, ellis and possibly kassian...

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