Seeing the Buffalo Sabres second in the Atlantic Division at this stage of the season is a good sight, especially with the rough patch they went through in November and considering they still have some glaring holes in the lineup. At 16-12-7 their 39 points is places them just barely in front of a group of teams at least 10 points behind the division leading Boston Bruins. The Montreal Canadians and Toronto Maple Leafs are one point behind Buffalo while the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers are two points behind.
However, as we look at points-percentage in terms of the standings, the Sabres .557 points/game is behind Tampa (.578,) Florida (.561) and Montreal (.559) and in front of Toronto's .543.
As of now this is the pack that will more than likely be battling for spots two and three in the division behind the Bruins. Tampa is the most complete team and despite their choppy start it's not too far of a reach to see them in one of those two spots while Toronto certainly has enough firepower up front to go along with solid goaltending to overcome any shortcomings on defense. The Lightning and Leafs were both considered favorites to be in the Atlantic's top-three prior to the season and they're both beginning to look the part right now.
For Florida and Buffalo one of two wild card spots in the Eastern Conference may be their ticket to the post season and it's even more crowded. In addition to the four Atlantic Division teams, there are four Metropolitan Division teams with more points than the Sabres and another one that's only three points behind. The Washington Capitals are the class of the division with the NY Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins second and third, respectively, behind them. The Isles have a .719 points-percentage, the Pens .647 with two other teams, the Carolina Hurricanes (.647) and Philadelphia Flyers (.603) topping the Sabres in that category as well.
By no means should the Sabres be counted out of the Atlantic Division at this point in the season, but they've got to do better than the real .500 hockey (4-2-2) they've been playing this month. And they need to start taking care of their games against teams in their division and conference. As of today Buffalo is 6-5-1 against the Atlantic Division and only 9-8-4 vs. the Eastern Conference meaning they're 3-3-3 against the Metropolitan Division.
The Sabres can begin their trek to be better than the Metro tonight against the Flyers in Philadelphia. Overall Philly has been strong against conference foes (13-4-3) and dominant against the Atlantic (7-2-1) and they've been equally as dominant over Buffalo as of late. The Sabres are only 3-6-1 in their last 10 games against, 2-7-1 on the road. The Sabres haven't won in Philly since October 27, 2015 when Zemgus Girgensons scored in overtime of Buffalo's 4-3 win.
Despite their woes at Wells Fargo Center, this is still a winnable game for the Sabres. They've generally been playing solid hockey for about a month now and have had only a handful of bad periods leading to their last three regulation losses--a bad third period at Tampa on November 25, a poor second period at Calgary on December 5, and the first two periods of their last game in Toronto. They're 5-3-4 from the Tampa to Toronto games with their worst loss being by three goals against the Lighting.
Having said that, and despite being on the precipice of breaking out or falling back down, the Sabres have been a two-line team as of late with one player in particular carrying the team on his back. Captain Jack Eichel is on a 17-game point-streak and it might have gotten real ugly without him. Eichel just thrust himself into the elite status and into the conversation surrounding the Hart Trophy as the NHL's MVP. He has 16 goals and 31 points since the streak began with a four-goal outburst against the Ottawa Senators on November 16. In the month of December the 23 yr. old has eight goals and 15 points in eight games while his linemates have accounted for an additional seven goals and 20 points.
Eichel and linemantes have scored 11 even strength goals this month with the rest of the forward group accounting for 13 of Buffalo's even strength goals with the bulk of that coming from their checking line. Kyle Okposo (3 goals,) Johan Larsson and Zemgus Girgensons (2 goals each) have been a force this month, especially since Okposo's return from injury on December 7 but Buffalo's middle-six has struggled. And that includes former 40-goal scorer Jeff Skinner who's without a goal in his last seven games.
What coach Ralph Krueger and his coaching staff does to get more secondary scoring remains to be seen, but he's keenly aware of the approach they should take. "We need to get secondary scoring here," said the coach on WGR550 Radio yesterday morning. "It needs to alleviate some of the 5v5 pressure the opposition is throwing at [our top line] on every road game (when they have the last change.)
"We're working with different combinations trying to find ones that fire and ones that will go for us. We definitely need them to be a threat. We have been in the games that we're good, we are getting that secondary scoring. How do you work on it? Well, just continue sticking with our principles in general where we need to get traffic to the net, we need guys in the blue paint to create secondary opportunities and I'm sure our secondary scoring will improve."
There's been a lot of focus on Skinner lately, especially with him inking an eight-year contract extension with $9 million cap-hit this summer. The 27 yr. old winger who's in his ninth NHL season has 11 goals in 35 games this year but has been slumping as of late and no one's sure exactly what's going on. But despite people throwing his contract at him while saying the dollar amount should demand he make his linemates better and despite his defenders pointing to less than ideal circumstances with his line, perhaps it's merely a situation where the puck's just not going in for whatever reason.
Open ice has been very difficult to find for Skinner as of late and he's had to work twice as hard just to find some. Marcus Johansson, who was a winger up until the Sabres turned him into a center, has not looked comfortable since returning from injury on November 27 and the right side of the line has been a revolving door of incompetence. Oddly enough, that line clicked best when fourth-line winger, and Sabreland deplorable, Vladimir Sobotka was in the lineup. From the beginning of the season until Sobotka was taken out by a Nikita Kucherov (TBL) cheap shot on November 8, Skinner had seven goals and 10 points in 16 games but since Sobotka's injury Skinner has four goals and eight points in 18 games despite his shot total of 3.211 shots/game not being that far below his 3.625 shots/game with Sobotka on his line.
Krueger's top line is cemented in place right now and he said it's a matter of finding the right combination on Skinner's line while also mentioning that Skinner has been getting the opportunites and getting the shots, but that he's a streaky scorer. All it might take is one goal to open the flood gates and Krueger hopes it's in Philadelphia tonight.
It looks like Krueger is still trying to find combinations outside the Eichel and Larsson lines. From those at the rink in Philadelphia, Buffalo's lines at the morning skate:
Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart
Girgensons - Larsson - Okposo
Vesey - Johansson - Asplund
Skinner - Rodrigues - Sheary
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