This is the second of a two part series looking at the Sabres prospect pool with Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com. Part I can be found by clicking here.
As laid out in the previous blog, what Buffalo Sabres general manager Jason Botterill has been able to do on the blueline for his team the last three years has been pretty impressive and that's without landing a franchise-type defenseman in Rasmus Dahlin with the first overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft. Botterill fortified and modernized his D-corps through some savvy trades while he and his scouting staff focused on the blueline at the draft using eight of their 18 picks on defensemen.
That's the good part of the prospect pool. The not so good part comes into play when we take a look at the forwards and goalie situation.
There's a two-fold reason for the not so good part when it comes to the forwards in the system. Botterill inherited a pool bereft of forward talent because a.) they were still recovering from the scorched-earth rebuild of his predecessor and b.) the Sabres top prospects were picked high in the draft and quickly made their way into the NHL lineup. Second-overall picks Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel were playing for the Sabres as teenagers, while 2017 eighth-overall pick, Casey Mittelstadt also started out his rookie season as a teenager. Which is fine as those top picks are expected to be on a fast-track to the NHL.
That trend of fast-tracking high draft picks will more than likely continue with 2018 first rounder, Dylan Cozens. The 6'3" 183 lb. Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL) center was selected by the Sabres with the seventh-overall pick this past June and looked very good at Sabres Development Camp before suffering a thumb injury that limited him to skating and working out for the entire summer. In retrospect it distance himself from all of the static and pressure that comes with being a top prospect in his draft year. "If you think about it," said Baker of sabresprospects.com, "in a way that thumb injury was good for him because he actually got to rest."
Cozens recovered from his injury in time for training camp and did raise some eyebrows, looking far and away more talented than a number of current Sabres roster players but the 18 yr. old was sent back to his junior club and is performing as expected. He is second in the Western Hockey League in scoring with 25 points (11+14) in 16 games and Baker says that being in Buffalo this summer and the confidence he gained from that experience, factored into his early season success. "I just think he has a ton of confidence. He's taken the experience of being in Buffalo all summer and even though he had that thumb injury I think he understands how to take care of his body, get stronger. He definitely got a little bigger over where he was last year."
Despite calls for him to be on the Sabres roster, Cozens still has a lot of work to do and that doesn't include filling out his 6'3" frame to be able to play against men. Scoring goals from tough areas is what separates the boys from the men in the NHL and according to Baker, he seems to be trending in the right direction. "He's still scoring a lot of his goals from range," he said of Cozens, "but he has this confidence where if he wants to kick it up a gear, try to go around a defenseman, lower his shoulder, cut to the front of the net, he's doing that. He's doing that more this year than last year and it goes back to confidence and the speed of the play that he was around all summer and in training camp."
Cozens could represent a huge addition to the Sabres top-six next year if he can successfully make the jump as a 19 yr. old. He has the skill-set, the NHL frame and a long reach to go along with his excellent skating. It's a big jump to the NHL and it could obliterate a player's confidence if he or the team aren't ready for that big step.
With three first-rounders who made their way to the NHL no more than a year after being drafted, and with a huge hole in the prospect pool due to the devastation of tanking and a rather poor draft record on the part of the previous regime, any top-six potential after Cozens right now comes from a player the Sabres traded for--Tage Thompson.
Thompson was acquired in the Ryan O'Reilly trade and spent nearly the entire 2018-19 season with the Sabres. Unfortunately, that didn't go as well as one would have liked as he registered only 12 (7+5) in 65 games and had the second-worst plus/minus on the team (-22) despite playing sheltered minutes. Buffalo sent the 6'6" 215 lb. Thompson to Rochester for a reset late last season and he responded well finishing with nine points (6+3) in eight regular season games. This year he leads the Amerks in scoring with 11 points (5+6) in 12 games and has a plus-4 rating.
According to Baker, Thompson is doing things that will help him get back to the NHL like scoring at even strength (only one goal and one assist have come on the powerplay) and he's been getting to the front of the net, something we really didn't see much of last season in Buffalo. "A lot of people were jumping on Thompson (last year) but he's still a really young guy," said Baker of the 22 yr. old and added, "I don't really worry about him long-term.
"It's just a matter of time before Thompson gets another look at the NHL but in the meantime, playing in the AHL and dominating, scoring goals and using your size and reach and realizing how big and strong you are, that never hurt anybody. Now you just want to see that functional intelligence, that hockey sense on a regular, shift-to-shift basis and that's kind of the next step [for him]."
Thompson has been playing on a line with Rasmus Asplund, who's just about NHL-ready himself. The 21 yr. old has been climbing through the ranks beginning with two post-draft years in the Swedish Elite League and another full season in Rochester last year. The two-way center leads a group of role players right now that look to be ticketed for bottom-six/fourth line roles.
One of those type role players Sabreland is very familiar with is Matej Pekar who became a fan favorite in 2018 when he exchanged big hits with Dahlin at development camp. The 18 yr. old was beaming after displaying his rambunctious side on the ice and it came through in the genuine, infectious smile he had while being interviewed about the events. Pekar loves that kind of game and loves to be compared to noted NHL pest, Brad Marchand of the Boston Bruins. Although it's highly doubtful Pekar will come close to Marchand's offensive production, he brings that annoying agitation to the rink along with seemingly boundless energy and is learning how to score with the Barrie Colts.
Pekar is in his second OHL season and Baker simply states, "he is where he needs to be." The 19 yr. old native of the Czech Republic is building on his injury-shortened 2018-19 season and has 22 points (13+9) in 16 games for Colts in the high-scoring Ontario Hockey League. Pekar knows where to go to score goals and isn't afraid of the high-traffic areas. He's strong on the puck, strong on the forecheck and can be a menace to play against. "He's not the prettiest player, but he's going to get the job done and that's all I care about." (For my two-part series on Pekar click for Part I and Part II)
Yesterday we mentioned the array of styles and players that make up the blueline prospects and that goes for the forward ranks as well. The Sabres have those lengthy, skilled players in Cozens and Thompson, and they have speedy players in Arttu Ruotsalainen, Lukas Rousek and Marcus Davidsson. Buffalo also has a unique player up front in winger Brett Murray who's unlike anything they have in the pool.
At 6'5" Murray is up there with Thompson and is a bit taller than Cozens and Swedish winger Filip Cederqvist who are both 6'3" but unlike those players he's packing on a solid 236 lbs. onto that frame. "He's a load," said Baker, "real heavy kid. Big. Strong."
Murray split time between the USHL's Youngstown Phantoms and NCAA's D-1 Penn State Nittany Lions after being drafted by Buffalo in the fourth round of the 2016 NHL Draft. He spent a full season with Penn State in 2017-18 and went back to Youngstown last season where he scored 76 points (41+35) in 62 games for the Phantoms. This year he decided to forego college and signed with the Amerks where the rookie has appeared in seven games scoring two goals and adding three assists.
In the case of Murray, Baker thought that "the logical choice" for the big winger would be to go back to college for another year and dominate before making a jump to the pros. To his credit, Murray "gambled on himself," said Baker, "got an AHL contract and now the early results that he's having suggest that he's a going to be a guy that they might want to look at for an NHL contract."
"[The Sabres] don't really have a guy like him in the forward ranks," continued Baker, "guys that are really a load beneath the goal line and can get on the forecheck, win battles and use their size to get to the front of the net and be this big lug nut. His hands have improved, I don't want to say they're great but they're really good, and he goes to the net, scores goals the right way. You don't want to go all crazy about a guy (this early in the season) but the early results are saying that he's trending in the right direction."
Buffalo's goaltending depth will also need some attention moving forward. Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark are entrenched in the Sabres net for at least another season after this one and at this point neither seems to be that standout, No. 1 goalie. At least as of yet. Jonas Johansson is on a long development curve having spent most of the past two seasons in the ECHL with the Cincinnati Cyclones and we're not sure if the 24 yr. old even end up being a competent AHL starter yet.
There seems to be a lot hinging on the future of 20 yr. old Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen, who looks like he has bona fide NHL starter potential. Luukkonen came to North America after spending one post-draft season in his native Finland and the 2017 second-round pick dominated the OHL last season with a 38-11-2 record, a 2.50 goals-against average and .920 save percentage. He was named the OHL's Goaltender of the Year and also won the Red Tillson Trophy as the OHL's most outstanding player. Luukkonen led Team Finland to the gold medal at the 2019 World Junior Championship and was named to the All-tournament Team. He had double hip surgery in April and is back on the ice with the Cyclones for a brief conditioning stint before settling into the Amerks crease for the season.
After Luukkonen, all that's remains in the pipeline is Erik Portillo, a big, 6'6" goalie out of Gothenburg, Sweden. Portillo is in Dubuque of the USHL and is committed to the University of Michigan next year. In seven games so far Portillo is sporting a 6-0-1 record with a 2.39 GAA, but has a sub-.900 SV%. Baker used caution when looking a the small sample size of Portillo's short North American career thus far saying that "when a goalie comes over with very limited experience on North American ice there are a lot of things to adjust to."
"It's not just the angles (of the smaller ice surface,) it's the quickness of the play," he said. "A lot of what he's struggling with is just the speed of the attack. On European ice (15' wider) guys can enter the zone, hold the puck, be patient and let plays develop. In North America that's not the case. Guys cross the blueline and they're looking to shoot or pass really fast and that just changes the goaltender's approach to reads."
The prevailing theme with the Sabres prospect pool at this point in the season is that it's still very early and there's a lot of hockey left to play. Things will change, circumstances will change and players will change, some for the better, some for the worse but this is where they stand right now. Buffalo has a good collection of defensemen in their proper developmental leagues ready to make their way up the ranks, they have one potential top-six forward paying his dues on a reset in Rochester and another one being the player he's supposed to be in Canadian Junior. There should be no panic with the goalie situation as they're at least adequately filled to this point and Buffalo has a prime No. 1 candidate ready to embark on his pro career. That said, the goalie position is very thin right now. In all it's not a bad situation considering where they came from three years ago.
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