Published by hockeybuzz.com, 6-30-2019
Anyone who's against having pending UFA center Matt Duchene on the Buffalo Sabres is pretty much crazy. Having him anchor the second line for years to come behind Jack Eichel would be a formidable one-two punch. What's not crazy is having to pay the price he'll be commanding come July 1, the start of free agency.
The Sabres have been mentioned to be in the running for top free agents ever since Terry Pegula bought the team. The summer after he bought the team Buffalo was said to be one of the team's vying for the services of 2011's premier free agent, center Brad Richards. They fell short as Richards signed with the NY Rangers a 9yr./$60 million deal. Buffalo went with their backup plan that year and decided winger Ville Leino could move to center and with their playoff loss to Leino's Philadelphia Flyers still fresh in their memory, signed him to a 6yr./$24 million deal. Both teams are still paying for those mistakes. The Rangers bought out Richards in 2014 at a total cost of over $20 million until 2025-26 and Buffalo bought out Leino that same year paying him $7.333 million until the end of next season not to play for them.
Regardless of a dubious track record, NHL general managers still go all in on July 1 dishing out huge contracts for UFA's and most time end up regretting it.
Duchene's contract is probably going to land somewhere in the $11-12 million/season range and adds another dimension to the premise we opened up with. Whereas one would be crazy not to want him on the team, Buffalo would be crazy to dish out that kind of money and term (seven years) for a second-line center.
Such is the start of free agency which begins tomorrow.
Although our Sabres insiders have mentioned Buffalo being in the Duchene running, odds are stacked against them. And even if they pony up $12 million per season Duchene might not want to sign with the Sabres anyway, just as Artemi Panarin, the unequivocal top 2019 free agent, has his sights set elsewhere.
The Sabres and GM Jason Botterill like the trade route and we'll probably see another trade in addition to the Colin Miller deal. Botterill said yesterday that he's comfortable with the depth he has on defense with the addition of Miller and seems to have his eyes set on the forward group. If they can't get a deal done for a forward, they may take a stab and overpay for one second-tier free agent and augment their forward depth with a less costly one.
Of the second tier free agents, a player like forward Marcus Johansson would seem to be of interest to the Sabres. The former first-rounder (2009, 24th-overall, NJD) is said to be receiving interest from at least 10 teams, none of them being his current one, the Boston Bruins.
Johansson skates extremely well for a 6'1" 205 lb. player, he has great hands and can score in a second-line role. Is he the No. 2 center Buffalo is looking for? No. Can he play center? Yes he can, but he's much more effective on the wing. The 28 yr. old is coming off a three-year deal paying him $4.853 million annually and most definitely will be looking for a raise, especially after a solid playoff performance with 11 points (4+7) in 22 games.
Will he be overpaid? You betcha and he could creep into the lower-mid $6 million range when all's said and done. A price-tag like that would be acceptable for Buffalo if the term didn't go beyond four, maybe five years. That said, this will be Johansson's last chance at a fat contract with that AAV sticking on a seven-year deal.
Brian Boyle is an interesting free agent even though he won't be in a top-six role. The 34 yr. old is entering the twilight of his career and is probably looking for one more shot at the Stanley Cup. The 6'6" 245 lb. center is coming off of a two year deal ($2.55 million AAV) and could be looking at a one-year deal in the $3 million area or may have the option to sign with a Cup contender a discount.
To be in the running, the Sabres would need to offer some term at that price-tag, something like three years at $3 million per year.
Word has it that the Sabres are ready to pounce on Calgary Flames castoff, Curtis Lazar, who was taken 17th overall in 2013 by the Ottawa Senators. The 24 yr. old British Columbia native was drafted as a scorer then traded to the Flames while struggling in a checking role for both clubs. Lazar comes at no cost for the Sabres save for the salary he may earn. Word is that it's a one-way deal meaning he'll make the same amount of money as a bottom-six forward with the Sabres or a top six forward with the AHL's Rochester Americans.
One more area to keep an eye on is goaltending as Botterill is said to be interested in an organizational No. 3 netminder. Finding that might be difficult but someone like Dustin Tokarski, who's spent plenty of time in the AHL (343 regular season games) with good results (2.52 GAA, .911 Sv%) but also held the fort in the NHL (34 games played, 2.84 GAA, .904 Sv%.)
Those are just a few options for the Sabres moving forward and the best we can hope for is that Botterill keeps the team moving forward, even if he doesn't make a big splash.
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