Reprinted with permission from hockeybuzz.com
Before we go on, I'll preface the following by saying I know full-well that Carolina Hurricanes RW Alexander Semin isn't exactly the most industrious, hard-working forward in the NHL. And I'll also add that at 31 yrs. old, Semin isn't exactly in Tim Murray's wheelhouse age-wise as the Sabres GM is geared more towards younger additions to the team.
That being said, there are few things that would make trading Buffalo Sabres forward Cody Hodgson to Carolina for Semin a legitimate move:
--both have bloated contracts with term on them. Hodgson has four more years left at $20 million while Semin has three left at $21 million.
--both are coming off of career lows in production. Hodgson had 13 points (6+7) in 78 games while Semin had 19 points (6+13) in 57 games.
--both are potential buyout candidates as we speak
--both could use a change of scenery.
Sabres fans are familiar with Hodgson, a skilled player with average skating ability who found himself in former head coach Ted Nolan's doghouse last season. Hodgson was coming off of a 20-goal 2013-14 season with nine of them whilst playing on the first powerplay unit. This season would not afford him that opportunity. He went from over 3:08 PP TOI/gm in 2013-14 down to 1:20 minutes this past season. He had zero goals on the powerplay in 2014-15.
It won't be any better this season either. Amongst the names looking to work on that first powerplay unit is last season's leader in PP-time, Tyler Ennis and the recently acquired Evander Kane. Other competition for those coveted spots include forwards Zemgus Girgensons, Matt Moulson and probable second-overall pick, Jack Eichel. Those five, by the way, will probably constitute five of the top-six forwards on the team. Although Hodgson may have the wherewithal to join that group in a top-six, RW role, inconsistencies may keep him from being a fixture there.
Speaking of inconsistencies, when they deteriorate to the point where a player is characterized as "moody," Semin's name is the latest to come to the fore. And it doesn't help that he's Russian, which falls right into the ill-conceived "lazy Russian" stereotype.
True or not actions speak louder than words. From 'Canes coach Bill Peters as tweeted by Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer (via prohockeytalk,) after Peters made Semin a healthy scratch. "We just play the guys who dig in and work and play with speed," said Peters.
According to Alexander, Peters said he's had several conversations with Semin [during the] season, but "obviously something's not right. Talk is cheap, though, right?" remarked the coach.
Look, I get it. It's a gamble. Having Semin and his "lack of drive" might be a detriment, but man, does he have some mad skills. If a team can tap into that they'll have themselves a top-line 30-goal sniper on the right wing. In Buffalo that would mean he and Ennis would hold down those spots with Brian Gionta being properly fit into a top-nine role on the right side.
After that there's also a bit of a gap between the NHL'ers Buffalo is icing right now and a pretty strong prospect pool coming up the ranks.
Tops on the right side as of now is powerforward Justin Bailey and strong two-way winger Nicolas Baptiste. Both fit squarely in Buffalo's long-term plans and will be in Rochester learning the professional game beginning next season. A year behind those two is Hudson Fasching, who is headed back to the University of Minnesota for his junior season, and Vaclav Karabacek who will be eligible to join the Amerks at the age of 20 after finishing his fourth season of junior next spring.
Finding a top-six right wing allows things to fall into place as three years from now, at the end of Semin's contract (and one year after Gionta's expires) Bailey and Baptiste will be 23 yrs. old with three years of proper development under their belts. It fits right into the team's stated goal of having their prospects develop properly.
On the negative side, there's always the possibility Semin could be a bust. Short-term it could set the team back a bit, but expectations are pretty low this season anyway. If poor play means finishing 26th instead of 22nd, what's the difference? Other than higher odds of landing a top-three pick?
Simply put, should Semin continue with his uninspired and uninspiring play as a Buffalo Sabres throughout the 2015-16 season, he'll be a buyout candidate for the remaining two years on his contract. Two-thirds of $14 million is roughly $9 million. If the Sabres were to buy out Hodgson's contract today, which many speculate might happen, it would take about $6.7 million.
For the $2.3 million difference, it would be worth the gamble.
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