How much is RFA Cody Hodgson worth?

...And how long should his contract be?

Contract talks between the Buffalo Sabres and the Cody Hodgson camp don't seem to be headed anywhere right now. Hodgson is coming off of his entry level contract and his agent Ritch Winter, like any agent worth their salt, is looking to maximize the top-six center's worth in both dollars and term.

Winter has been in the business for quite a while and for Sabres fans, he'll be remembered for his impact on Dominik Hasek, and the end of "the Dominator's" era in Buffalo. He's a tough agent who won't hesitate to go for the jugular in contract negotiations and isn't affraid to have his client holdout or demand a trade.

As for Hodgson, what is his worth to the Sabres right now?

The 23 yr. old center is coming off of his second "full" season in the NHL, last year being a lockout shortened 48-game schedule. While in Vancouver, he was in a third-line center role as dictated by the players in front of him on the depth chart--Henrik Sedin and Ryan Kesler.

After coming over to the Sabres at the 2012 trade deadline, he was slotted as a second-line center behind Derek Roy. The other top-nine center slot was a mess as free agent signee Ville Leino was tried on numerous occasions to fill that role only to fail miserably. The team eventually settled upon Tyler Ennis as the third-line center for the last 20 games of the season.

Heading into the 2013-14 season, Hodgson should be considered a top-six center in the league, although on the Sabres he would be headed into camp a little above that as their top-line center.

For stats-geeks Hodgson shows solid progression from his Vancouver/Buffalo season to last season:  .49 pts./game in 2011-12; .71 ppg in 2012-13.

Last season .71 ppg ranked him 82nd overall in the league, 23rd amongst centers.

On the negative side, his minus-4 put him way down the ladder overall. Interesting to note, though, is that his plus/minus only started to tumble when he came to the Sabres. In 2011-12 he had a plus-8 with the Canucks and a minus-7 with the Sabres.

This may be the reason why.

Canucks GM Mike Gillis admittedly "built Hodgson into an NHL scorer" and hid Hodgson's deficiencies on defence by giving him an inordinate amount of offensive zone starts to make him "something we could move." Said Gillis, "We put Cody on the ice in every offensive situation we could."

It worked.

The 'Nucks sent Hodgson to Buffalo for fello first round pick Zack Kassian, who was one of six young players Gillis coveted.

Hodgson had good production for the Sabres last year as his 34 points were second on the team. But his minus-4 ranked him near the bottom in Buffalo.

The Buffalo News' Jon Vogl summed it up nicely whe he said, "The 23-year-old [Hodgson] saw goal lights flashing at both ends of the rink all season. His advance stats feature offensive promise and defensive nightmares."

Vogl continued:

The Sabres averaged 2.91 goals per 60 minutes when Hodgson skated five-on-five, according to BehindTheNet.ca, a website dedicated to hockey statistics. That number put him ahead of star centers such as Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux (2.90), Washington’s Nicklas Backstrom (2.89) and the New York Rangers’ Brad Richards (2.88).

While his offense was stellar, the other side of Hodgson’s game was a mess. Opponents averaged 3.64 goals against him per 60 minutes while skating five-on-five. Of the 689 skaters who appeared in at least 10 games, Hodgson ranked 665th.

In other words, only 24 players in the league were easier to score against.

Hodgson, defensive nightmares and all, may in fact be the most skilled player on the Buffalo Sabres at this point (sans 29 yr. old Thomas Vanek.)

After his first game as a Buffalo Sabre back in 2012 I wrote, "Vancouver has some real good forward depth from the skill side to be able to trade away a talent like him, Hodgson already looks to be better than almost anyone on the team up-front.

His skating is pretty smooth, he has great on-ice vision, his transition game is quick, he backs off the defenders and he always seems to be in the right position."

And Hodgson still has tremendous up-side on offense. For a team like Buffalo that was 23rd in the league in goals for, they could use all the help they can get.

He also showed great progress under the guidance of head coach Ron Rolston.

With Rolston as head coach for the Amerks during the lockout, Hodgson had what might be considered a solid stat line:  19 games; 5 goals, 14 assists, minus-3.

When Lindy Ruff was fired and Rolston was promoted to Sabres head coach, Hodgson's stat line was 22 games; 6g, 9a, plus-4.

Projecting out, there's no reason to believe that Hodgson won't continue to progress. He's still learning the game, still adjusting to playing against the opposition's best forwards on the top line and he's still working out every summer with Gary Roberts.

Is a consistent 70-80 point producer too far fetched?

Not at all.

While the Hodgson camp is correct in not accepting a "prove it"-type bridge contract the Sabres, especially after dolling out a big long-term contract to Tyler Myers, are rightfully skeptical about going big money/long-term again.

Hodgson will make more than Tyler Ennis' $2.8M per season, and if the Sabres were dumb enough to pay $4M to Drew Stafford and $4.5M to Ville Leino, it's not Hodgson's fault.

A 4yr./$16M contract might be one for them to look into with the Sabres doing most of the giving here.

Hodgson gets himself a hefty pay raise and a contract that will take him to unrestricted free agency at the end of it.

Buffalo gets themselves a top-six forward, potential top-line center for four years while the wealth of center prospects in the organization have the opportunity to sort themselves out.

After year three, both sides will have the opportunity to re-evaluate the situation and see how they'd like to move forward which would mean another extension or a trade.

It's something they all should be able to live with.



Edit:  6yrs/$28.5m
         $4.25m cap-hit
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=682169