Friday, July 26, 2013

Thomas Vanek will probably be having his cake and eating it somewhere other than Buffalo

Sabres forward Thomas Vanek has things falling into place for him once again.

The 2013-14 season will mark the last year of the seven-year/$50M contract he signed in 2007. And just like in 2007 when he delayed an extension with the Buffalo Sabres, the star winger looks to be heading towards the 2014 off-season ready to max out his value on the open market.

"I've never been a person to narrow my choices down," he said in an interview with KSTP (via WKBW.com) at the University of Minnesota where he's presently working out.

Back in 2006-07, Vanek was coming off his rookie contract just as league revenues, and henceforth the league salary cap, were really beginning to ramp up. Rather than sign an extension with the Sabres during the season, Vanek and his agent waited for the off season where he signed a $50M offer-sheet from Edmonton. It was immediately matched by the Sabres.

That was some pretty good timing as a number of stars aligned for him.

League revenues were soaring at the time. Edmonton wanted to--needed to--land a star player. The Sabres had screwed things up with Daniel Briere and Chris Drury and Vanek was coming off of a career year.

After signing that contract, the star winger never came close to the 43 goal, 84 point season he had in that contract year. He averaged 32 goals, 63 points in five full seasons before last year's lockout.

Last season he was a point per game player scoring 20 goals and adding 21 assists in 38 games. He missed 10 games in the NHL's lockout shortened season due to injury.

Which leads us to where the Sabres and Vanek are right now.

Vanek, who has been luke-warm (at best) to a long rebuild in Buffalo, commented on his status in the KTSP interview. "We're rebuilding," he said, "and I'm hoping we have the right pieces to accomplish something."

"I'm not saying I'm old," he continued, "but at the same time you'd like to be on a team where you feel like going into camp you're contending. Right now in Buffalo we're rebuilding which is not the best case scenario for me."

This is right in line with what his thought process has been since captain Jason Pominville was traded to the Minnesota Wild at the trade deadline.

“Let’s be honest,” Vanek told the Buffalo News back in late April. “I’m not stupid. I know I have a year left and they can probably deal me for prospects, young guys, whatever else is out there. Yeah, I’ve thought about it. If it looks like it’s a long rebuild, then it probably makes sense for both parties to move on.”

Pretty frank words coming from a player who's best friend and neighbor (Pominville) had just been traded to the Wild at the trade deadline.

There has been no movement for him since. He remains a Sabre and, in a business-like approach, he stated simply that he's ready to hit camp this September as a member of the Buffalo Sabres.

The big hindrance to his movement (read trade) is his $7.1M cap-hit. The salary cap for this season is set at $64.3M, which is down from $70M this past season. Not very many teams have the wiggle room to absorb that much money for a potential rental player.

Projections for the 2013-14 season, however, have the cap jumping up to around $70M. Which bodes well for Vanek as he seems to have some of the stars aligning once again.

There will be many teams with the cap-space to sign him to a very lucrative and presumably long-term contract. Especially a team like Minnesota, who looks to be one of those places where he can "feel like he's going into camp contending."

Vanek is a bonafide top-line winger in his prime who can score in a many different ways. There are many teams out there who will covet his skill level and he will be free to pick and choose the right situation for him.

It's highly doubtful that the Buffalo organization is the right situation for him at this time, even if the Sabres offer him a very lucrative deal.

As a businessman, he'll be looking to maximize his value, just like he and his agent did when they worked the 2007 off season. As a hockey player, his most recent statements with KTSP indicate that he's thinking about his NHL mortality and wants to be on a team contending for the Stanley Cup.

Add it up and Thomas Vanek will have his cake, and will be eating it too.

Just not in Buffalo.

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