Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Sabres 2011/12 Season Preview Part 3--The Forwards

Two areas of weakness were exposed last season in the playoffs: veteran, top-four talent on defense and the lack of a true #1 center up front.

The former, being somewhat easier to fill than the latter, was addressed in a matter of a few days as the team traded for Robyn Regehr and the rights to Christian Ehrhoff whom they signed soon thereafter.

Buffalo was in the running for the only bonafide #1 center on the free agent market, Brad Richards, but Richards opted to sign with the NY Rangers. GM Darcy Regier immediately implemented Plan B and signed former Philadelphia winger Ville Leino whom the team plans to play at center.

The whole Leino signing was a head-scratcher--from a return to his preferred position at center, to the length and term of his 6-year/$27m contract. But Head Coach Lindy Ruff, having watched Leino's work up close for seven games versus the Flyers in the playoffs, saw enough to be convinced that Leino will work at center for the team.

With that in mind, we take a look at the forwards heading into the 2011/12 season starting with the centers.


Ville Leino, now a Buffalo Sabre
celebrates his overtime game-winner
in Game 6 of last year's playoffs.
Ville Leino--What Ruff saw against Philadelphia in the playoffs was Leino often times playing down low as a center. He saw a gifted passer who could hang on to the puck while waiting for trailers. And what he also saw is a player who could get himself into position to bury the puck in crucial situations as evidenced by Leino's overtime game-winner in Game 6 with the Flyers on the brink of elimination.

Leino's journey to a fixture on the Sabres for the next six years has been long and full of ups and downs. Going forward, this season presents a whole new set of circumstances that he'll need to adjust to. He's going from big-city Philly to small-city Buffalo. He's moving from wing to center. His contract goes from $825K to $4.5M. But the saving grace for him, as he plays under the microscope in Buffalo, will be that he's replacing former Sabre Tim Connolly. Connolly was a whipping boy, deservedly or not, for a number of years and it won't take much for Leino to endear himself to the fan base and media in Buffalo.

One would expect Leino to surpass his 19 goals and 34 assists from last season, but to expect a breakout year may be asking too much. It will take some time for him to adjust. His capacity and desire to learn and grow in his new role will be key. Should he adapt well, it's not out of the question to see him pick things up in the latter part of the season and into the playoffs.

Derek Roy may find himself not
wearing a letter on his sweater.
Will it affect his game?
Derek Roy--A fixture in the top-six for the Sabres since 2007, Roy will continue in his role as 1A center on the team. There's no denying his consistent point production over that span and were it not for a season ending injury last year, he'd have been near the top of the Sabres scoring once again.

It's never been about production when it comes to Roy, though. It's always been whether or not he can ditch the sophomoric tendencies that he's clinged to since his placement in the top-six. As the season went on last year he seemed to ditch the immaturity--the diving, the complaining to referees--and was looking like a complete player.

Roy has always seemed to be at odds with Ruff and how he wants his team to play. In direct contrast to the team game Ruff wants to see, over the years we've seen too much of "Dipsy-doodle Derek" and his dangling-puck showmanship. Once again, though, that seemed to be abating last season before Roy's injury.

This is a signature moment for Roy as to how he's perceived by not only Ruff, but his teammates as well. The team went on a tear to reach the playoffs last season with him on the sidelines and the mantle of leadership may pass him by. He may not wear a letter this season and how he handles all of this may be a determining factor as to how he fits in to the Sabres plans beyond the season.

There's a new core rising and a set of leaders that are more in-tune with Ruff's five-men-as-a-unit concept than Roy seems to be.

Make no mistake, Derek Roy is a valuable component to the team as he's on the ice in all situations. Whether or not he can accept his diminished status and lead without being expected to be a leader is another story.
Sabres Alternate Captain,
Paul Gaustad, may not get big
minutes, but he's still a big man
 both on and off of the ice.

Paul Gaustad--"Goose" will anchor the bottom-six and dependent upon who's in the line up he'll either be on the third line or fourth line. Regardless of where he plays, he'll be expected to provide two things:  leadership and proficiency on the dot.

The 6'5", 225lb center has a presence about him both on and off of the ice. Were it not for his bottom-six role, he'd probably be the captain of the team, though it doesn't really matter. 

Gaustad will be looked to for his typical 10-15 goals and 30 points and as well as the staunch defense of his teammates in hostile situations. We'll also see him on the dot in a crucial face off situation as well.

"Goose" is a consummate veteran. He knows his role on the team and leads by example on the ice. We know he'll never be a "Jumbo" Joe Thorton in the scoring department, but he has shown the capacity to be a lesser Johan "The Mule" Franzen and I wouldn't be surprised if Gaustad's numbers took a decent jump if we see him centering the likes of Nathan Gerbe and Patrick Kaleta, a trio that worked together during the off season. That line has been solid lately.

Luke Adam--The determining factor as to whether or not, and where, Adam plays is the health of Jochen Hecht. Hecht still is not fully recovered from an inadvertent hit to the head by teammate Shaone Morrisonn early in training camp.

One thing we do know is that Adam is making strong push to be in the lineup for Friday's season opener versus Anaheim in Finland.

WGR beat reporter Paul Hamilton is adamant about the progress made by Adam ever since he was removed from linemates Zack Kassian and Marcus Foligno (both who've been sent Rochester) and placed in a top-six role centering Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville (WGR audio 11:24-mark.) Adam seems to be much quicker and his hockey sense is getting much sharper and he seems to be adapting well to the speed of the game.

It remains to be seen just what Ruff will do on opening night, but there's a good possibility that Adam, because Hecht will not be in the lineup, will be a part of the roster, not in a bottom-six role, but up top. We know the kid can score and be a force in the AHL, what remains to be seen is what he can do with the big boys.

Jochen Hecht--As one of the Sabres best two-way forwards, Hecht will find himself in the bottom-six once he returns to from his concussion. Ruff really likes him because of his two-way play and because of his defensive work. But Hecht is no slouch when it comes to scoring. Twice in the past four years he's scored over 20 goals and he's averaged 40 points over the past six seasons.

Sabres fans cringe at the though of Hecht at center and would rather see him on the wing (actually most, because of his $3.5M salary, would like to see him gone.) Having Hecht in a bottom-six role for the last year of his contract is not a bad thing for the team, no matter what position he plays, and you can look for him to be a big part of the Sabres' penalty kill.


Left Wing and the Emerging Youngins 

Both left and right wings are loaded with talent on this edition of the Buffalo Sabres. But we'll move over to left wing and start with a player who's considered the biggest scoring threat on the team as of now...

Thomas Vanek looks good with
the "A" on his sweater. What else
is in store for the winger?
Thomas Vanek--Vanek has performed extremely well for the team as he continues on a path to a complete player. A lot has transpired since his early years with the Sabres both with the team and for Vanek himself.

He has passed through a multitude of thresholds which saw him go from being benched in the playoffs early in his career, to being a consistent threat over the last two playoff seasons and has probably matured more than any other "core" Sabre over that timespan. He has gone from bearing the weight of his ridiculous (at the time) contract to shouldering the mantle of leadership last season. And he's gone from pure offense to a player who Ruff may look to on the penalty kill (see 1:50 mark of WGR audio clip here).

Thomas Vanek has never scored less than 25 goals in his NHL career. He's surpassed 30 goals four times reaching 40 or more twice. And he can score in many ways including a wicked slapshot or a tip in while being harassed in front of the net.

Vanek also seems poised to take the reigns of leadership this season as he's being seriously considered for the captaincy of the team (which would be my personal choice.) Last off-season he took Drew Stafford under his wing and staff produced 31 goals in 62 games. This preseason he's been seen talking Luke Adam through the game, and Adam is poised to be on the opening night roster.

His maturation process has been fraught with pitfalls as he tried to live up to that mammoth contract he signed in 2007. He's now four years removed from that and seems comfortable with who he is and confident in his game.

He may not wear the "C" this season, but you can bet that he'll be wearing an "A" like he did last season. And one should expect continued production from him and his linemates as well as continued growth in his overall game.

Tyler Ennis--The charge of the yougins starts on the back-end with Tyler Myers. Up-front "the other Tyler" joins his namesake as "the new core" for the Buffalo Sabres.
"Greazy" is how Lindy Ruff
described Tyler Ennis last season.
As shown after his overtime game-
winner in Game 5 versus the
Flyers, the kids' got game.

Ennis had a very strong rookie season for the Sabres last year scoring 20 goals and adding 29 assists. This was after netting three goals and garnering six assists during a 10-game stint the previous season.

Ennis also showed he can contribute in the playoffs with three goals and five assists in 13 games and can be a clutch player as evidenced by his Game-5 overtime winner versus the Flyers last season.

The former center who now plays on the wing will be expected to be Ville Leino's "Daniel Briere" this season. Leino and Briere, along with Scott Hartnell made for a formidable line in Philly.

It's a lot of responsibility for the (soon to be, like, tomorrow) 22 year old, but Ennis seems like the type of player who has enough confidence in his game to handle it.

What would constitute a breakout year for the 5'9", 160lb center? Who knows? He'll be adapting to a new center who's new to his position as well. Hell, we're not even sure of any line combinations at this point. But if Ennis were to equal or surpass his regular season output and continue to produce in the playoffs, I'd say that's a damn good start to his career.

Nathan Gerbe--At one point last season it looked as if Gerbe and his 5'5", 180lb frame would be shipped to the AHL because of his inconsistent/poor play. But a funny thing happened on the way to Portland--he got "it" and stuck with the big club.

Late in December he added consistency to his game and it built his confidence. Then in January he started scoring some goals, which furthered his confidence. Then, as the team was transitioning to new ownership on a three-game home losing streak, he buried a puck at center ice as a way to end the team's home futility. The team finished with a 9-1-2 home record after that punctuated by a win versus Philadelphia in the last home game of the regular season. Gerbe netted the game-tying goal on this wicked backhand:





Still young and finding his game, the short, stocky fireplug exudes leadership and a fierceness that his teammates feed off of. He'll be relegated to third-line minutes this season behind Vanek and Ennis, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him hit the 20 goal, 40 point mark. In addition, you'll see Gerbe on the ice during the power play and on the penalty kill. He's also earned the confidence of Ruff to where he'll be on the ice in crucial game-ending situations.

Gerbe, unlike last season, is not being taken lightly by anyone in hockey. He's mentioned behind the likes of Ehrhoff and Leino, Vanek, Ennis and Myers, Pominville and Roy and Miller. But he is being mentioned as an impact player for the team.

Cody McCormick--A fan favorite because of his blue-collar, balls-to-the-wall style of play. McCormick is energy and on the fourth line, he'll provide it. He can score as well.

The versatile forward will be playing either center or left wing for the club dependent upon the health of the Sabres forwards. But no matter where he plays, you can bet he'll be playing smash-mouth hockey to the applause of Sabres fans.


Big Money On the Right Wing

$5.3M, $4M and $4M.

Those are the cap-hits for top-nine RW's Jason Pominville, Drew Stafford and Brad Boyes respectively. All of them have hit the 30-goal plateau at one point in their careers (Boyes netted 43 one season,) yet one of these $4M+ players will be "relegated" to third-line minutes. Which, when put into perspective, is a good thing when the Sabres roll three, maybe four, lines.


Jason Pominville--Arguably the Sabres best two-way forward and a strong candidate to wear the "C."

Pomville is rock-solid in all facets of the game--top-line winger, 1st unit power play, 1st unit penalty kill and go-to guy in the waning minutes of a tight game. His understated style of play goes largely unnoticed by the causal fan and his $5.3M contract is often times said to be albatross-like.

"Pommer" is paid what he's paid. That's it. Whether grossly overpaid or not is up for discussion, but there's no denying that his all around game is sorely missed when he's not on the ice, something that's was a rarity up until last season as he played full seasons in the four years prior to last season.

The biggest hit to the team in his absence was on the penalty kill last season and in the playoffs as well. As a quiet scorer, he's somehow managed to average .80 points per game over the last five seasons including 80 points in 2007/08. In the four years prior to last, he's never had less than 20 goals or 62 points.

Pominville is comfortable in himself and his game and has the respect of both coach and teammates. He will be wearing a letter like he's done for the past four seasons. And a letter looks right on his uniform.
Were Drew Staffords numbers
last season an aberration?
Or will it be the norm?

Drew Stafford--"The Enigma" Just what "Staff" will bring to the table this season is not known. We do know that his inconsistencies over the past three seasons have been maddening.

Will he use his 6'2", 215lb frame to the fullest? Will he continue to work the corners with velcro on his stick? How will he mesh with his probable linemates Ennis and Leino? Can we expect him to score in bunches and possibly surpass his 31 goals from last season? Is he capable of 40 goals? Will he be able to transfer regular season success into the playoffs?

Maybe it all hinges upon whether or not he put his "guitar-hero" dreams on hold to focus on hockey. He said he did that last year and he scored at a half-a-goal/game clip.

He's always had the tools, but rarely showed desire up until last season.

Staff will be looked upon as a key cog in the Sabres offense this season. And it's good to see that Ruff has enough faith in his defensive game to put him out on the penalty kill.

What it comes down to with Stafford is whether he wants to be John Leclair or Steve Bernier.

Brad Boyes--The former 40 goal scorer may be the one to end up with third line minutes. But, more importantly, Boyes will be playing on the wing instead of center.

Ruff has said on more than one occasion that without Boyes, the Sabres may not have made the playoffs. And that's true.

As for the playoffs? Simply put--fail. Was it because of his position? or was it because he just doesn't have what it takes to succeed in the post season?

Boyes' lone 40-goal season came when "the New NHL" was still alive back in the 2007/08 season. It was still a hands-off league at the time and perimeter players were able to put up points without interference from the opposition. But the league has changed and it's tougher to score goals. Many now, just like in the playoffs, coming from the "bloody nose" areas down low. And, so far, Boyes hasn't shown a willingness to go into those areas.

If that changes, and he can at least provide 20-25 goals playing third-line minutes, the Sabres top-nine will give the opposition fits.

Patrick Kaleta--Stay healthy and don't get stupid.

Everyone knows Kaleta's game. He is the gadfly, the antagonist, the pest that the opposition hates. Buffalonians love him though. And it helps that he's a native.

Kaleta's problem, due to who he is and his style of play, has been injuries. Not once over the past four seasons has he played more than 55 games.

But, the kid knows his role and he provides a 60-minute motor in overdrive on the energy line. He can score goals and put up points, but will never be confused with Dale Hunter or Claude Lemieux, but if he can channel his energies more in the direction of production instead of destruction, he may surprise a lot of people.

Matt "Friggen" Ellis--Ellis will straddle the AHL and NHL this season. When he plays in Rochester, which will be most of the season, he'll be their captain. When he's up in Buffalo he'll be logging fourth-line energy minutes and displaying a knack for working the corners and playing keep away along the wall. A character guy through and through, Ellis is a good player to have in the organization, one who not only accepts his role, but relieshes it.


Lindy Ruff and Chan Gailey Have One Thing In Common

All in all, the 2011/12 edition of the Buffalo Sabres is deep up front with one persistent hole--#1 center. Their strength is on the wings and the fact that at least three of the four lines will represent a threat to score will help negate their lone weakness.

They have scorers, two-way players, size, skill, energy and some attitude. As constructed they'll need to embrace the philosophy of "the whole is greater than the sum of it's parts" to reach the promised land.

One should expect that this team's style of play up-front will be leaning towards the "Ferrari" of the 2006/07 team where Ruff rolled four lines while saying "stop me if you can." They don't have top-two centers like Briere and Drury, but they have plenty of speed and more grit up-front than that edition.

Lindy Ruff's line combinations will be a work in progress, as injuries and chemistry affect them. And he gets angry when lines are mentioned as first, second, third...etc.

What he's probably looking at are forwards that are interchangeable in his "five-men-as-a-unit" scheme. Looking for forwards to be all-in no matter which role they find themselves. Looking for them to play "out of character" and willing to do what's necessary in any given situation. Looking for as much desire in their own zone as they have in the opposition's.

Chan Gailey, head coach of the Buffalo Bills, has been able to hide offensive deficiencies through his game planning. His weaknesses on the o-line have been covered to the point where the team has one of the most highly rated offenses in the league. This is without a "franchise" quarterback.

The Sabres will be looking to do the same thing. Without a true #1 center up front, Ruff will be hiding that deficiency through depth.

And as the Boston Bruins proved last season without their #1 center, Marc Savard, it can work.

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