The Exploitable Goaltending Roulette Wheel In Philly

Make no mistake about it, the Buffalo Sabres are clear underdogs in this 1st-round match-up with the #2-seed, Philadelphia Flyers.

The only areas where the Sabres have an advantage is goaltending and coaching (maybe.)

The Sabres have Ryan Miller in net. He's a veteran of the playoffs as well as high-pressure situations. And although Philadelphia goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky had a regular season on par with Miller, he's still a rookie who could pull a Ken Dryden or a Roman Chechmanek. More than likely, it'll fall somewhere in between.

Here-in lies the problem for the Flyers. Head coach, Peter Laviolette has a competent back-up in veteran Brian Boucher. Not only that, last year's playoff hero Michael Leighton cleared waivers and is with the club. That's three goalies who Laviolette can turn to.

Laviolette knows how to win--he has a Stanley Cup ring as coach of the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 (juggling two goalies) and last year his Flyers lost in the Finals to the Chicago Blackhawks in six games. Not only that, he has the horses up-front and on the blue line to reach the Finals once again this year. He knows his team's strengths and weaknesses, knows how to coach within a game and proved last playoffs that he could juggle goalies and go with the hot hand.

Flyers Head Coach, Peter Laviolette
will be playing the roulette wheel
once again in this years playoffs

But, this year he'll have three choices in net which could make it much more difficult to find and/or ride the hot hand.

I've often likened the Flyers goaltending situation to playing roulette--red or black. You've got a 50/50 chance of getting it right. Ride a color until it gets cold and hopefully the next color will get hot. Hello, Stanely Cup Finals.

Throw in the green space on the wheel, and the odds of hitting black or red just went down (minimally, albeit, but down none-the-less.)

If things go well with "Bob," there's no decision to make, you ride him. The second choice is rather easy as well--Boucher is the back-up and should "Bob" falter, he gets the nod. Should "Boosh" tank, then where does Laviolette go? Back to "Bob" or does he go "green" with Leighton?

That's not a good position to put the coach in. In fact, that probably puts him in a position to fail.

If the Sabres can get to the Flyers early, and it will have a lot to do with Lindy Ruff's strategy (as well as the players bringing it up a notch,) the quandary that Laviolette will find himself in as he tries to find the hot hand may be too much. That's not to say that if the Sabres win the first game convincingly and/or the second game that the Flyers would implode.

But it could be the way to put just enough question-marks into Philly's overall scheme to pull off an upset.