Questions galore as the Sabres ready for the opening of free agency

For a large swath of fans in Sabreland, the hits keep coming as new Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams fashions his team to his liking. It began Tuesday night with the selection of scoring winger Jack Quinn 8th-overall in the 2020 NHL Draft which in and of itself isn't a bad pick by any means, although the methodology as to how they came to that pick at that spot is somewhat quizzical.

As things calmed down near the end of Rounds 2-7 on Wednesday evening it was revealed that Dominik Kahun was not tendered a qualifying offer which allowed him to become an unrestricted free agent today. The 25 yr. old undrafted forward finished up the season with the Sabres after a trade from the Pittsburgh Penguins. Kahun scored two goals and added two assists in six games for Buffalo tallying 68 points (25+42) in 138 total NHL games for three different teams. The reasoning behind the decision on Kahun centered around a possible arbitration award that might not be to Buffalo's liking with Adams calling it a "calculated" move as he tries to give himself roster flexibility heading into free agency. Most looked at this as a gamble at best as it allowed for the possibility that a top-nine scoring forward, which happens to be an area of need, could walk away.

If that wasn't enough, the team announced yesterday that forward Zemgus Girgensons signed a 3yr./$6.6 million contract extension with the club. At seven years Girgensons is the longest tenured Buffalo Sabre but unfortunately that tenure has been marked by on-ice ineptitude that has reached historic levels for this franchise. It's not that he's a bad player as he scored 12 goals in a checking role last season under new head coach Ralph Kruger. What it really amounts to is that the highly likeable Girgensons is associated with seven years of futility and when Sabreland was promised change under Adams, most didn't think that change and him were compatible.

The Sabres head into the start of free agency, which begins at noon today, with an abundance of holes in the roster and, according to CapFriendly, about $30 million in projected cap space. They have 29 players signed to pro contracts, which is 21 under the upper limit and have six restricted free agents under their control--forwards Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson and Casey Mittelstadt, defensemen Brandon Montour and Lawrence Pilut plus goalie Linus Ullmark. 

Tendering Montour was a somewhat curious move. Many thought they'd let him walk as they have an abundance of right-shot defensemen and he was coming off a less than stellar season under Krueger where he played both sides of the ice. The hole they have is on the left side and Pilut may have filled that spot if he was still with the team. Buffalo signed the highly sought after free agent defenseman but he had a difficult 2019-20 season that began with recovery from surgery before splitting time between the big club and the AHL, something he wasn't particularly thrilled with. Although we're not sure whether he has an out-clause in his contract, head scout Jeremiah Crowe said they're still tracking his development in Russia and the qualifying offer shows that the Sabres are still interested in him.

All-in-all those six players could total as much as $20 million towards the cap leaving the team less than $10 million to spend when you account for last year's performance bonus overages. 

Accounting for all six of those players signing, Buffalo heads into today with four spots amongst the forward group that need to be addressed. One of those spots will probably be taken up by Dylan Cozens who just finished an outstanding season in Canadian Junior with 85 points (38+47) in 51 games and had an equally impressive World Junior tournament for Team Canada. There's no in-between for the 19 yr. old center as it's either going back to junior, which he's too good for, or Buffalo. Rasmus Asplund is waivers exempt this season and could be in the mix for a roster spot as well. The 22 yr. old is coming off of two solid pro seasons which included splitting time last year between the Sabres and the Rochester Americans.

Mittelstadt is a bit of a wild card and could be in the mix for Buffalo. The 2017 seventh-overall pick left college after his freshman season and was put in a top-nine role for the Sabres. It was a case of too much too soon and he was sent to Rochester last year after struggling mightily. He is also waivers exempt.

With the AHL season still in question because of the pandemic, it's possible that all three of those forwards could be with the big club. 

How it all fits together is still up in the air and we may have an answer or two sometime this evening as the "free agent frenzy" settles down. The big names usually go off the board early in the day while lesser names filter through as the day goes on. No one expects Buffalo to be in the mix for an Alex Pietrangelo or Taylor Hall but Adams has something on his mind while Sabreland has questions galore as to what this roster will look like come January 1st.

2020 NHL Mock Draft picks 8-10

 (This is the second in a three-part series mocking the first 10 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft.)

The mock so far:

1. NY Rangers, LW Alexis Lafreniere

2. LA Kings, C Quinton Byfield

3 Ottawa Senators, C Tim Stuetzle

4. Detroit Red Wings, C Marco Rossi

5. Ottawa, D Jamie Drysdale 

6. Anaheim Ducks, LW Lucas Raymond

7. NJ Devils, D Jake Sanderson

Simply put the Buffalo Sabres will land an excellent prospect at No. 8 in the 2020 NHL Draft, it's just a matter of which one. With this mock being laid out as above, three more skaters and a blue chip goalie prospect are in the mix for picks 8-10 here and all are all generally thought of as comprising the rest of a third tier. Go to any mock draft and after the top-three go off the board, there's a plethora of combinations that will give the Sabres an opportunity to land an impact player from a list that includes defenseman Jake Sanderson or goalie Iaroslav Askarov. 

Buffalo has plenty of options here, including the possibility of trading down if they are so inclined and if there's a partner that wants to move up at an appropriate price. But, the opinion here is that they'll keep the pick and draft:

8.  Buffalo Sabres--RW, Alexander Holtz

Yes. I know Cole Perfetti is on the board (in this mock) and that he's a center, a position of need for Buffalo. And yes, I'm well aware that he has plenty of skill, however, a couple things jump out when deciding between Perfetti and Holtz for this writer. First off, Perfetti could end up on the wing in the NHL, which won't be a bad thing for him or his team as he can dish and and score and has the hockey sense to make it work at either position. The side of the ice he would more than likely play is left wing and if we look at the Sabres depth chart, their top two left wingers are Jeff Skinner, who is signed for another seven years and Victor Olofsson, who just made the NHL All-Rookie team and probably is a player the Sabres would like to keep around for a while. Holtz, on the other hand is a winger, plain and simple, and he plays the right side where the Sabres depth chart features Sam Reinhart and nothing definitive either directly behind him on the big club or in the pipeline. Holtz is also a sniper with 25-30 goal potential. In two years the Sabres could have Jack Eichel centering Olofsson and Reinhart on the top line with Dylan Cozens centers a multi-30 goal/one-time 40-goal scorer in Skinner on the left and Holtz on the right.

Secondly, Perfetti has wonderful hands and a high hockey IQ that allows him to see the play extremely well and his patience to let the play develop allows him to make great passes. Those are great traits and the fact that he scored 37 goals in consecutive seasons means he's no slouch at putting the puck in the net either. But the latter does not seem to be his forte' and from what I've read and what highlights I've seen, he comes off as a smaller version of Reinhart (who coincidently scored 36 goals his draft year,) especially when you take into account his slightly above average skating. Having said that, it's the opinion here that the Sabres could use a bona fide sniper as opposed to another Reinhart-type.

With parity reigning supreme in the NHL and goaltenders being the great equalizer as they've always been, there's a premium on players who can beat a hot goalie and the more shooters you have, the better. In Buffalo, Eichel has such a great shot that he's one of the few players in the league who has a good chance of beating a goalie one-on-one with nothing but ice between the two. The consensus is that Holtz has the best shot in the draft and he can beat a goalie from anywhere on the ice. Is his shot as good as Eichel's? Probably not, but not that far off. The Sabres need players more players like that. Skinner has a nose for the soft spot and the ability to finish while Olofsson has a wicked shot and as he learns how to create more time and space for himself, he'll be able to add to his formidable production last season (20 goals, with 11 coming on the powerplay.) Adding Holtz into the mix adds yet another player with wicked skills to beat a goalie with his shot.

Holtz plays in the top Swedish league and the size of the international rink gives him space to be able to unleash the fury in his blade. The NHL is different in that a smaller rink does not allow as much time and space as the SHL does, but Holtz has a quick release. It's nasty and is said to be largely undetectable. But does he have an NHL-worthy release? I posed that question to Kris Baker of Sabresprospects.com and he replied, "Hands-down, yes. Not sure there is anyone close to [that] in his draft class."

Holtz is also considered pretty close to NHL ready as he enters his second full season playing against men in the top Swedish league and by the time the NHL gets this season rolling (probably) in January, 2021, the 18 yr. old will have also played additional half-season against men. Come next season, dependent upon his development and the Sabres needs, he could come over and begin his North American pro career with the possibility of jumping into a top-nine spot in Buffalo.

So, yeah, I know that Perfetti has been mocked as high as No. 4 and if he drops to Buffalo at No. 8 picking him isn't a bad thing by any means. However, all things being equal, adding another sniper to the top-six with Eichel and Cozens dishing (or scoring) looks pretty good for the future both near-term and long.

9.  Minnesota Wild--C, Cole Perfetti

This is a scenario that's good for the Wild as their prospect pipeline is devoid of serious talent down the middle. Yes, we know he could eventually show off his high-end skills and equally high hockey IQ from wing but this Minnesota team is aging fast, especially at forward and adding a young player with his skill-level is never a bad thing. He would be a part of a youth movement up front led by "elder statesmen" Kevin Fiala and Ryan Donato (both 24 yrs. old) along with 23 yr. old Joel Eriksson-Ek with Perfetti being placed atop a group of forward prospects featuring Kirill Kaprizov and Matthew Boldy, all of whom may be ready in 2021-22. Word has it that the Wild may end up taking highly touted goalie prospect Iaroslav Askarov here, and that's not a bad idea, but Minnesota really needs to continue to build up that pipeline of skaters and having a probable top-six center/forward fall to them at No. 9 is just too hard to pass up in a situation where draft prospect meets need.

10. Winnipeg Jets--C, Anton Lundell

Even if the Jets moved on from a winger like Patrick Laine, who has averaged 37 goals/82games (albeit declining the past two seasons,) theY still have solid depth on the wing. And although they continue to lose defenders on the blueline, they seem to have a never-ending well of d-men to move right up into an NHL role with 21 yr. old Dylan Samberg already being penciled in as part of Winnipeg's d-corps this coming season. What they could really use is a center behind Mark Scheifele, who was a great pick by the Jets in 2011. Lundell is anything but flashy but the all situations, two-way center in the very least gets the job done, something the teenager has been doing very well the past two seasons while playing against men in Liiga, Finland's top hockey league. He also has a high compete-level and plays a very aware, positional game. At 6'1" 185 lbs. he's got a projectible NHL frame and because he's looked so solid in Finland, he's not very far from reaching the NHL.

2020 NHL Mock Draft picks 4-7

(This is the second in a three-part series mocking the first 10 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft.)

With the top-three picks in the 2020 NHL Draft set (unless something weird happens,) this is where things begin to get interesting. Generally speaking the next tier of prospects stretches down to about pick nine or 10 with an array of players offering up varying skill-sets but whom all grade out close to each other. There's even a blue-chip goalie in the mix who could go top-10. However, it's the opinion here that amongst that group of six or seven players, three rise to the top and create their own sub-group, like a 3a and 3b. I'm also of the opinion that the teams picking 4-6 will select them and although the exact order might not be right as laid out below, that group of three should go off the board well before the Buffalo Sabres pick at No. 8.

Speaking of Buffalo, should one of those three prospects drop to them, they wouldn't hesitate to select said player, even if it was a d-man. As the Sabres enter the 2020 NHL Draft, they'll be looking up at Atlantic Division rivals in the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings who are going to add some impressive prospects to their rebuilds. The NY Rangers will be adding the top player in the draft as well and with playoff spots in the eastern conference already hard to come by, in two to or three years (or sooner in the case of the Rangers) these picks placed atop an already strong prospect pool will make life even more difficult for the Sabres, a team that has a league-long, nine year playoff drought. 

Detroit and Ottawa will now be setting the tone followed by the Anaheim Ducks, who have a definitive need in their prospect pool, and the New Jersey Devils, a team that can go in many directions dependent upon what does or does not fall to them. And with that in mind the mock continues as we begin with the fourth-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft.

4. Detroit Red Wings--C. Marco Rossi

The Wings were a train wreck last season and they need to add a lot of talent so dropping down to fourth-overall after being a historically bad team was a travesty for Detroit. But that's how the lottery unfolded and at No. 4 they'll still have an opportunity to select an impact skater. Even though this is a dark time for the storied Wings, and getting shut out of the top-three was salt in the wound, general manager Steve Yzerman has another Brayden Point-type prospect staring him in the face. Although Yzerman won't be as lucky, or as smart, as he was in Tampa getting Point in the third round of the 2014 NHL Draft, Rossi represents a very similar player who has those offensive gifts and ultra-high compete-level. He had all of those traits on display last season in Canadian Junior as when he led the entire league in scoring with 120 points (39+81) in 56 games, besting Alexis Lafreniere's 112 points (52 games.) The 5'11" 179 lb. Rossi is just too good for junior and the Wings could ease him into the NHL on the wing or slot him in behind Dylan Larkin and let him lead an burgeoning youth movement for Detroit. It's going to be a struggle for that franchise near-term but Yzerman is slowly putting pieces in place and having an eventual one-two punch of Larkin/Rossi down the middle for the foreseeable future is extremely promising.

5. Ottawa Senators--D, Jamie Drysdale

Although the lottery didn't go their way, the Sens will walk away from the 2020 NHL Draft with an impressive forward prospect in Tim Stuetzle (or Quinton Byfield) and follow that up two spots later by plucking the best defenseman in the draft. Ottawa has a very strong prospect pipeline featuring plenty of forwards and some good d-prospects even after the recent 2017 graduation of Thomas Chabot and 21 yr. old Erik Branstrom, who should be with the Senators next season. And they'll add a defenseman in Drysdale who's in the mold of Cale Makar (2017, 4th-overall) and Quinn Hughes (2018,) two modern defensemen who electrify from the blueline. Once again, the Senators could go a couple different ways and they could almost call it a night after drafting one of the top forwards and the top defenseman this year, but Ottawa isn't done by any means as they can add to the pipeline with the 28th-overall pick and four second rounders beginning with pick-33.)

6. Anaheim Ducks--LW, Lucas Raymond

Once again, what teams do in front of you dictate what you will do and the Ducks take the best player available, which isn't such a bad thing here. Anaheim has needs on the blueline and Drysdale would have been an ideal pick but Ottawa threw a wrench into those plans. The Ducks could easily go defense here and no one could blame them for landing a defenseman like Jake Sanderson who some consider to be a better prospect than Drysdale, However, in sticking to the best player available plan, there's no reason to pass on drafting a stud left wing in Raymond. The Ducks have an aging duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Adam Henrique at center with Sam Steel and Trevor Zegras in line to take over when they're ready. At left wing they have Sonny Milano (24 yrs. old) and Jakob Silfverberg (29) and as Anaheim moves forward with their rebuild, adding Raymond makes their near and long-term future even brighter. The gifted Raymond has been playing in Sweden's top hockey league (SHL) as a teenager scoring 10 points in limited ice time while competing against men in his first full season last year. Along with his incredible hands and impressive hockey sense, the smaller (5'10" 183 lbs.) Raymond has an ultra-high compete-level which has already translated into a goal and an assist through two games of the 2020-21 SHL season, which is underway.

7. New Jersey Devils--D, Jake Sanderson

This isn't so much of a reach as it is a choice. There's been a huge swell of draftniks leaning towards New Jersey drafting highly touted goalie Iarsolav Askarov at this spot, and they have a good point. However, the Devils haven't drafted a goalie in the first round since 1999 (27th-overall) and have drafted a goalie every year since 2015 when they plucked Mackenzie Blackwood with the 42nd pick. In addition, back in 2013 the franchise traded the ninth-overall pick for a goalie in Corey Schneider whom they believed to be the heir to Martin Brodeur. Despite some strong numbers from Schneider his first three years, the team failed to move the needle as they missed the playoffs. The now 34 yr. old Schneider began to fade in 2017 (with Keith Kinkaid emerging as "the truth" that season) and has fallen to the point where he was waived last season and is now a $6 million goalie in the AHL with two more years left on his contract. The Devils could have gone with a forward here as well but landing a 6'2" 185 lb. defenseman who plays the position deftly and is an excellent skater as well as one who can move the puck out of his zone and also quarterback the powerplay, seems like a good move for a team that has quantity over quality in blueline depth. New Jersey has a strong group of young forwards beginning to make their mark already and some good defenseman but Sanderson would immediately be placed near the top of their prospect pool. Devils director of amateur scouting Paul Castron was hired by New Jersey in July, 2015 after spending 16 years in the Columbus Blue Jackets scouting department. Defenseman Zach Werenski was mocked anywhere from seventh to 12th overall in the 2015 NHL Draft and the Jackets plucked him with the eighth-overall pick ahead of some pretty good forward prospects. That worked out pretty well for Columbus.

2020 NHL Mock Draft picks 1-3

(This is the first in a three-part series mocking the first 10 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft.)

The annual NHL Draft on October 6? Really? That's usually about the time that every NHL team has completed their first game of the new season. Right?

Welcome to the world of Covid-19.

Kudos to the NHL for pulling off a finish to the regular season (the qualifying round) even if it really was an expanded playoffs as they had five-game series to determine which four teams in each conference would join the four best teams in the conference quarterfinals. Commissioner Gary Bettman and his staff really stepped up and delivered the best bubble experience one could hope for while the players on the ice played the games with typical Stanley Cup playoff intensity despite no fans in the stands.

No asterisk from this writer to whomever--Dallas or Tamp--hoists the Stanley Cup. It's the opinion here that the winner will have deserved the prize regardless of the circumstances the 2020 playoffs were played under.

The NHL even lucked out a bit with the Draft Lottery. All teams eliminated in the qualifying round had an equal chance (12.5%) in the second phase of the lottery which, because of how the first phase unfolded, offered one of those eight teams the opportunity to draft first overall. Bettman could have had an egg on his face if teams like Edmonton or Pittsburgh (both with the fifth best records in their conference) or Nashville (6th,) or Toronto (8th,) all of them playoff teams in a normal season, had lost their play-in but won the lottery. As it turns out, the NY Rangers, who along with the Chicago Blackhawks were the last teams to join the expanded field of 12 in each division, won the lottery so at least an actual non-playoff team will draft first overall.

As for the Buffalo Sabres, they missed out on the playoffs for a league-long ninth consecutive season and because the lottery balls didn't go their way, they dropped from the No. 7 slot down to No. 8. Sabres fans have had an extra long time (nearly seven months) to mull over draft possibilities, including various trade scenarios and it would be safe to say that they're ready for the draft to commence so they can start throwing haymakers on social media attacking whatever Buffalo's management does. 

So far new Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams has made one trade which looks very promising as he acquired center Eric Staal from the Minnesota Wild for forward Marcus Johansson. However, this draft may become interesting as owners Terry and Kim Pegula shredded the Sabres management, scouting and development staffs to the tune of 22 hockey department employees being lopped off of the payroll in one fell swoop. The general consensus is that Covid-19 decimated the bottom line of their umbrella company, Pegula Sports and Entertainment, which includes their hockey team. Moving forward, question marks concerning the 2020-21 NHL season as well as the American Hockey League season remain and in a box office-driven industry, no fans in the seats mean a severe loss of revenue. An argument can also be made that the scouting staffs that have been on board through three different GM's haven't been as productive as one would have liked so a house cleaning may have been in order anyway.

Ten days from now Buffalo will jump on their socially distanced zoom call for Round-1 of the 2020 NHL Draft. So onward we go with a mock draft in what has become the strangest hockey year that has ever been seen.

1. NY Rangers--LW, Alexis Lafreniere

At least a playoff team didn't win the #1 overall pick this year and the NY Rangers would have clearly missed the playoffs in a normal season. Because the NHL decided to go with conference seeding, New York beat out the Buffalo Sabres for the 12th and final conference spot and because they lost in the play-in but won phase two of the lottery, the Rangers really had the best of both worlds. Although the second round of the draft lottery was considered sketchy at best, it was what it was and New York has the opportunity to land Lafreniere, a true superstar in the making. If the Rags talent on the left side--Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and now Lafreniere--as their pivots, oh my would they have something. As of now they have Mika Zibanejad, RFA Ryan Strome and 21 yr. old Filip Chytil, down the middle which isn't the greatest but is good enough to make to take advantage of the incredible skill on the left side. They dream big in The Big Apple, and Tampa Bay Lightning superstar Steven Stamkos' name seems to come to the fore again. Why Stamkos would want to leave Tampa is another story but the Lightning needs cap space and the Rangers, who also own the 22nd-overall pick in this draft as well as one of he best groups of prospects in the league, could put together and impressive package. Hmmmm.

2. Los Angeles Kings--C, Quinten Byfield

We move from the east coast to the left coast for pick No. 2 and if you haven't been paying attention, Los Angeles has spent the last few years acquiring young talent and draft picks as they continue to move on from an aging roster that won two Stanley Cups (2012, 2014.) Heading into the draft the Kings have 11 picks in the first three rounds over the next two drafts (3 firsts, 5 seconds, 3 thirds) to use as they please and they are loaded with forward prospects led by Alex Turcotte, Arthur Kailev, Sam Fagemo, Gabe Vilardi and Rasmus Kupar. Even if they didn't move up from fourth to second via Lottery-1, Los Angeles would still be in great shape but at No. 2 they have the opportunity to add a skilled, high-end prospect in Byfield who has the ability to take his 6'4 215lb. frame directly to the NHL. Byfield checks off all the boxes (skill, skating, hockey-IQ, etc.) and will have the opportunity to learn the NHL game from two-time Cup-winning centers Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter.

3. Ottawa Senators--C, Tim Stuetzle

Tough luck for the Sens as they entered the draft lottery with two chances at the No. 1 overall pick, their own as the second-worst team in the league (13.5% chance) and the fifth-best courtesy of the Anaheim Ducks (8.5%.) Dreams of drafting 1-2 or even 1/3 overall dissipated as the final five picks unfolded but their "consolation prize" of not landing Lafreniere despite the best odds is Stuetzle, a dynamic center who many envision playing next to Brady Tkachuk in the not too distant future. The Senators organization has taken a lot of grief lately (and rightfully so) but one cannot argue with their rebuild. As of now Ottawa boasts top young talent in Tkachuk (21 yrs. old) and a defensive superstar in the making in Thomas Chabot (23,) both of whom are already making their mark in the NHL. Ottawa also boasts a solid prospect pool featuring RW, Drake Batherson and D, Eric Branstrom so adding Stuetzle (or even Byfield if L.A. goes in a different direction) immediately takes that pool to the next level. Add in the fifth-overall pick and if they don't have the best prospect pool in the league after this draft, they soon will. If you thought Los Angeles had it made, the Sens boast 14 picks in the first three rounds of the next two drafts--four first round picks (three this year, one next,) seven total 2nd rounders (4+3) and three 3rd-rounders (2+1)--providing plenty of organizational flexibility.)