Possible Buffalo Sabres protected list for next year's Seattle expansion draft

The Buffalo Sabres organization was/is in an extremely difficult situation heading into the 2020-21 season. In addition to the effects of Covid-19 and the financial hardships this pandemic has placed on salary structure and the salary cap across the entire National Hockey League, a Buffalo team enduring a nine-year playoff drought has had to try wade through that morass while trying to keep superstar center Jack Eichel engaged as they attempt to execute yet another strategy.

Eichel expressed his dissatisfaction with not being a part of the playoffs very early in this very long off-season and it's weighed on everyone a bit in Sabreland. This is not to say that he's asked for a trade, or even insinuated (as far as we know in either case) that he wants out, but after five seasons of missing the playoffs while playing under his third head coach and into an off season featuring his third general manager, it's not too far-fetched to believe that Eichel may be getting a little antsy as he enters the prime playing years of his career.

Credit to the management team in Buffalo for allaying some of those fears with two temporary moves--the trade for veteran center Eric Staal and the signing of free agent winger Taylor Hall, the 2018 league MVP. However, as of now they're only one-year stop-gaps. During this uncertain time being ruled by the pandemic, Sabres general manger Kevyn Adams, like much of the league, has curbed multi-year contracts in favor of short-term ones that give them flexibility heading into a 2021 off-season that will predate a similar, or possibly worse, 2021-22 season for the league because of the virus.

And if all that Covid entails wasn't enough, Buffalo, like every team in the NHL other than the Vegas Golden Knights, will have another situation to deal with--an expansion draft. 

The city of Seattle, Washington was awarded the league's 32nd franchise and will fill their team--the Kraken--with players  selected in the 2021 expansion draft. Every NHL team, save for Vegas, will give up a player in the draft and will have the opportunity to use one of two formats with which to protect others--7 forwards, 2 defensemen, 1 goalie or 8 skaters, 1 goalie. By the looks of how the Sabres laid their roster out, they'll more than likely be using the 7/2/1 format.

Buffalo is in excellent shape for this expansion draft as they will lose a player that may not be an impact player to Seattle but the question is, which one will it be? For the following exercise as to who Buffalo probably will protect and who they might expose, we'll follow the guidelines of the NHL while using CapFriendly's interactive expansion draft simulator to try and figure out how they'll play it.

The NHL states that, "All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits)." This keeps high-end prospects like center Dylan Cozens and goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen out of the mix.

Firstly, the easiest way to get this process going is through this NHL mandate, "All players with no movement clauses at the time of the draft, and who decline to waive those clauses, must be protected and will be counted toward their team's applicable protection limits." It should be noted that if players waive those clauses, they may be left exposed to the expansion draft.

To their credit, despite management signing some players to long-term deals, former GM's Tim Murray and Jason Botterill, signed only one player to a contract with a no movement clause--winger Jeff Skinner--who will automatically hit the protected list first (unless there's a waiving of said clause.)

Then there are three other important NHL exposure requirements that have been met by Sabres management:

--"One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.

--Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons

--One goalie who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the end of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If a team elects to make a restricted free agent goalie available to meet this requirement, that goalie must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the team's protected list."

In relation to defensemen, Buffalo has two players who are signed through the 2021-22 season:  Rasmus Ristolainen and Colin Miller. All of the remaining players are either signed for the next season only or, in the exclusive case of Lawrence Pilut, a restricted free agent who has been qualified and is yet to be re-signed but whose rights the Sabres still retain. 

When looking at the goaltending situation. Adams signed goalie Dustin Tokarski to a two-year contract on Tuesday. The remaining three goalies are all on one-year deals and like the d-group, we'll re-visit this a little further down after beginning with the forward group.

In addition to Skinner, we'll add Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Victor Olofsson to the protected forward group. Recent additions Staal and Hall will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season and if they remain so, the belief here is that the Kraken may sign them if left unprotected (like any other team may sign a UFA,) but in doing so they will have used up their expansion pick from Buffalo. 

Sabres fans shouldn't worry about Staal being exposed as he'll dictate where he plays (or whether he retires.) Hall is a different story so we'll wait on him, leaving us to pick two more forwards to protect. 

Buffalo re-signed winger Tage Thompson to a three-year deal and it's expected that he'll get every opportunity to further his development at the NHL level. And for as much grief as Casey Mittelstadt has received for his underperforming NHL career to this point, he's still an 8th-overall pick with high-level skills only three years removed from his draft year.

With only one spot remaining, it's the opinion here that either Hall or third year pro Rasmus Asplund, who along with Mittelstadt is waivers-exempt, will fill that seventh spot on the protected list dependent upon what happens with Hall.

The group of regular NHL forwards to be left exposed include Kyle Okposo, Cody Eakin and Zemgus Girgensons, all of whom are signed at least through the 2021-22 season, which fulfills NHL exposure requirements. Center Curtis Lazar, who signed a two-year deal recently, will also be exposed, but the former first-round pick has been yo-yoing between the NHL and American Hockey League with most of his games in the AHL and probably won't be an attractive option by most, if not all, measures.

As we turn our attention to the defensemen, Rasmus Asplund and Henri Jokiharju, both with two years of NHL experience, will be protected by Buffalo leaving only one spot left. There are really only four defensemen left worth noting for the Kraken with two of them, Ristolainen and Miller, having already been mentioned as fulfilling the team exposure requirements.

Right-handed defenseman Brandon Montour is only signed through the end of the 2020-21 season, will be an UFA and may be left unprotected (if he's not traded by then.) He would be free to sign with the Kraken, which isn't really all that far-fetched considering he's still young and has looked like a top-four defenseman in previous seasons.

The other defenseman is rookie Will Borgen who has spent the last two full seasons in Rochester and is waivers-exempt. He may or may not be attractive to Seattle dependent upon how they lay out their draft board.

Buffalo's decision of who to protect on the blue line really seems to comes down to either Ristolainen or Miller and the bet here is that they'll protect Ristolainen.

Because the Sabres signed Tokarski through the 2021-22 season, they met that league requirement but he won't be protected. Neither will Buffalo goalie Carter Hutton, leaving one of two goalies left to protect--projected starter Linus Ullmark, who will be a UFA at the end of the season, or Jonas Johansson, who will be a RFA at season's end.

This is a tough call and will be wholly dependent upon what happens goalie-wise this off season and what kind of years Ullmark and Johansson have in net. Luukkonen has been deemed the goalie of the future but how far into the future that might happen, if it happens at all, is yet to be determined. Having said that, we're going to put a no-call on this one as there are too many determining factors.

Projected Sabres expansion draft protection list

Forwards

Jeff Skinner (NMC)

Jack Eichel

Sam Reinhart 

Victor Olofsson 

Tage Thompson 

Casey Mittelstadt

Taylor Hall or Rasmus Asplund

Defensemen

Rasmus Dahlin

Henri Jokiharju

Rasmus Ristolainen

Goalie

Linus Ullmark/Jonas Johansson

Former Sabres dot the 2020 Stanley Cup semi-finals

Nearly every National Hockey League team can lay claim to former players in the NHL's 'final four," and Buffalo is no different. However, the Sabres have the dubious distinction of trading away a player in center Ryan O'Reilly who ended up being a 2019 Conn Smythe winner for playoff MVP while helping to lead the St. Louis Blues to their first-ever Stanley Cup. O'Reilly also won the Selke Trophy for best two-way forward in 2018-19 while the Sabres were extending their playoff drought to eight seasons.

Egg meat face.

It happened. And there's no sense in re-hashing the details as that horse has been beaten to the point of cremation. Yet, as we move along in the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs, there's another player from former Tim Murray's "young-vet" group of acquisitions that is helping power his team to possibly their first Stanley Cup.

Murray took over as Sabres general manager, made sure the Sabres finished dead last in 2015 (guaranteeing either Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel in the Blue and Gold,) and went for a quick rebuild after gutting the entire organization of talent. The process ended up setting Buffalo back years and the organization still hasn't fully recovered. While the Sabres are stuck in the bottom third of the league, closing in on an NHL playoff drought-tying record, some of the players Murray counted on to speed up the rebuild process have advanced with their teams.

The 2015 NHL Draft was a whirlwind of activity for the Sabres as not only were they planning on drafting Eichel second-overall, but also had Murray working the phones and pulling off trades for O'Reilly from the Colorado Avalanche and goalie Robin Lehner from his former team, the Ottawa Senators. 

Lehner actually kicked off the day for the Sabres as Buffalo traded the 21st-overall pick for a 23 yr. old goalie who was caught up in a three-way battle to man the crease in Ottawa. Murray called Lehner "high-end competitive" and believed he would become "a No. 1 starter...on a good team, on a contending team, on a playoff team."

True words, but not in Buffalo where he went 42-61-22 with a 2.77 goals-against average and .916 save percentage before the Sabres. It was a tumultuous time in Buffalo as not only was Lehner battling inconsistencies in front of him on the ice, but he was also, as we would come to find out after the Sabres let him walk in 2018, battling debilitating demons within. He finally landed with the Vegas Golden Knights after a 2018-19 season with the New York Islanders and a partial 2019-20 season with the Chicago Blackhawks who traded him to Toronto before the Leafs moved him to Vegas. Lehner would win the trust of Golden Knights head coach Peter DeBoer in the playoffs and wrestled the starters job away from three-time Cup-winner, Marc-Andre Fleury and just led Vegas to a Game-7 shutout win over the Vancouver Canucks last night. He heads to the semis with an 8-4-0 playoff record, a 1.99 GAA, .918 sv% and three shutouts.

Was Murray right in trading for O'Reilly and Lehner back in 2015? Yes and no. Right players (albeit a a premium,) bad timing might be the best way to look at it.

Another Murray-trade that turned out poorly was trading defenseman Brayden McNabb (2009, 66th-overall,) along with two second-round picks and F, Jonathan Parker to the L.A. Kings for Nicolas Deslauriers and prospect Hudson Fasching, whom he acquired as "heavies" for the team. Although this wasn't a direct egg-in-the-face trade, embarrassment came later. The Kings left McNabb exposed to the 2018 NHL expansion draft, the Knight's plucked him and McNabb has been a mainstay on their top-pairing displaying definitive chemistry with top Vegas d-man Nate Schmidt.

Another member of Vegas who was once in the Sabres organization is forward William Carrier, whom Buffalo left unprotected at the expansion draft. New GM Jason Botterill made a deal with Vegas GM George McPhee sending a 6th round pick to Vegas to protect goalie Linus Ullmark. McPhee took that pick and Carrier who has now played in 162 regular season and 32 playoff games over three seasons for the Golden Knights.

Carrier and Vegas recently agreed to a 4yr./$5.6 million contract extension.

Staying out west, the veteran laden Dallas Stars will take on Vegas with two former Sabres patrolling the blueline in lesser roles. 

Defenseman Andrej Sekera was a 2004, third-round pick of Buffalo and at 34 yrs. old is doing that journeyman thing. Sekera left Buffalo after the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season and has had stints in Carolina, Toronto, Los Angeles, Edmonton and now Dallas. The Stars have him in a lower-pairing role with heavy penalty killing duties. As a player who was much maligned in Buffalo by a fan-base that over-emphasized his short-comings while de-emphasizing his positive qualities, it would bring this writer some pleasure seeing him skate around the ice with the Cup in his hands.

Taylor Fedun is another former Sabres d-man playing for Dallas. The undrafted free agent initially signed with the Edmonton Oilers out of Princeton University, and played for the San Jose Sharks and Vancouver Canucks before landing in Buffalo in 2016. Botterill traded Fedun to the Stars in November, 2018 where he's been contributing as expected in a reserve role.

The NY Islanders have no former Sabres on their team as they head to the Eastern Conference Championship series but their opponent, the Tampa Bay Lightning do.

Defenseman Zach Bogosian was another young-vet, Murray acquisition and though he wasn't the primary piece received in a blockbuster deal with the Winnipeg Jets in 2015 (winger Evander Kane was the key player,) he was expected to, at the very least, be a top-four defenseman who would be with Buffalo a long time while Murray worked young players through the system.

Bogosian was in Buffalo for a relatively long time, six years, but only played in 243 games for the Sabres due to a rash of injuries that hit like clockwork on a yearly basis. The former first round pick (2008, third-overall) was drafted as a big, gritty defenseman with excellent skating and some real good offensive touch but little of that showed in Buffalo as he was either playing injured, on injured reserve or recovering from injuries. Eventually it came to the point where the Sabres wanted to trade him, but his $5.14 cap-hit made him immovable. 

When he came back from his latest injury, head coach Ralph Krueger gave him a shot and made him a healthy scratch (for the first time in the defenseman's career) prompting Bogosian asked for a trade. With no takers the 29 yr. old was waived, failed to report and was given his unconditional release. Bogosian hooked up with the Lightning on an NHL-minimum salary.

Like O'Reilly before him, Bogosian walked into a situation where the team was set and he had his defined role within that setup and he's performed well with nearly all of his advanced metrics either at the top amongst Tampa Bay defensemen or in top-three.

Odds are that at least one former Sabre will be skating around with a big smile on his face while lofting the Stanley Cup high above his head. Which one will it be?

We shall see.

What was the process used to select high-scoring winger Jack Quinn 8th-overall?

If you've followed the Buffalo Sabres the past decade you had to know that this was a possibility. After a long seven-month off season due to the pandemic and Buffalo's failure to make the expanded playoffs, new Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams stepped up in a virtual setting and made his selection for the 8th-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, RW Jack Quinn of the Ottawa 67's.

Quinn was second in the Canadian Hockey League in scoring with 52 goals in 62 games after scoring just 12 goals in 61 games the previous season. The 19 yr. old with a wicked wrist shot scored in many ways and in all situations (5v5, powerplay, shorthanded) while finding those soft spots around the net. At 6'0" 176 lbs. Quinn has a projectable frame and if he continues to put in the work, which he has diligently done recently, he should be physically ready to begin his NHL journey next fall.

Most were aware of Quinn's meteoric rise last season and he was considered a mid to upper-mid first round pick at the draft. That Buffalo took him at No. 8 was a surprise in most circles and was met with mixed emotions in Sabreland and beyond.

With the board unfolding the way it did as two defensemen were taken top-six, the Sabres were looking at selecting a very nice player at No. 8 including the possibility of drafting two centers--Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti--who many believed would be gone by the time Buffalo made their pick. After the New Jersey Devils selected a sniper in winger Alexander Holtz, it seemed as if Sabreland was facing a simple situation of taking sides between Rossi and Perfetti with neither really being a bad pick. When Adams selected Quinn, Sabreland devolved into two different groups of those who got that sinking feeling and those who were on the side of hope that the new GM had done well.

Quinn is "a pure sniper" according to Kyle Woodlief, chief scout and publisher of the Red Line Report, a premier draft guide. In his analysis of Buffalo's pick for USA Today Woodlief called Quinn an "aggressive winger...[who] has a knack for sifting through the wash and winding up in dangerous scoring territory without being noticed." 

Corey Pronman of The Athletic had Quinn rated 16th amongst prospects writing that although he didn't call him "an elite sniper, Quinn is just super skilled and smart player who scored a lot of goals around that net." Pronman nailed it in his final mock draft where he had the Sabres selecting him. "Trying to figure out the Sabres has been tough with the moving pieces from new management coming in," he wrote, "but the two names I've heard most are the two Ottawa forwards in Quinn and Rossi. I've been hearing Quinn more often now and think he could be the pick."

Which makes a lot of sense. Most thought Rossi, who led the CHL with 120 points (39+81) in 56 games would be off the board when the Sabres picked so leaning towards Quinn was a matter of elimination. What caused Adams to take the second best player on that 67's team?

"Jack's a Sabre," said Adams right off the bat in a Zoom call after the first round and he went on to credit his scouting staff with giving him insight into Quinn's entire game. "[It's] not just the goal scoring," said Adams, "his overall game kept showing through as we did the work. We see the ability for him to keep getting better, his athleticism is high and just the metrics we use scouting he met, and then some."

When asked what he meant by "Jack's a Sabre" Adams said "he was looking for certain characteristics, whether it's on the ice and the process they use to get their results. You're talking about the competitiveness, the athleticism, some of the measurables...when you package it all together, we felt he was a Sabre."

Whatever those measurables were, the analytical side of the equation didn't seem to be foremost in Adams' thoughts. Jeremiah Crowe was promoted by Adams three months ago to be the head scout of the pro and amateur departments in Buffalo. In an interview posted on the Sabres website the 34 yr. old Crowe called it "a unique opportunity knowing what's been laid out by Kevyn's vision...the buzzwords being analytics, video and scouting." 

We didn't really hear Adams mention anything from an analytics standpoint last night. Instead he offered up a general thoughts on numbers, which is somewhat expected as no GM will get into specifics. As the call unfolded he seemed to focus on Quinn's journey as a determining factor along with his goal-scoring prowess and all around play. Adams said he "really dug in with his scouts to understand [Quinn's] path" which is one of a dogged determination to get to this point. That path included being cut numerous times in triple-A and also his rookie season in the OHL. Quinn had never worked out in the summers as a 15 or 16 yr. old opting to play competitive golf and other sports, but once he got with a trainer, his path to the draft ramped up.

"We interviewed him and he had a lot of interesting answers to the questions I personally asked him," said Adams of Quinn. "He has a really good self-awareness of who he is as a player and he also has a determination in that I see him getting better and better. He's got that growth-mindset kind of mentality where you can see he wants to get better and he was upset when he was younger that he didn't feel he was where he wanted to be as a hockey player. Then he started doing thing to help him improve. To me you see that trajectory, that arc.

"He's got a big ceiling."

On the call Adams seemed to bypass what he's been preaching the last seven months. From what he conveyed during the Zoom call, this didn't seem as if it was an analytics-driven pick and from just looking at comparative stats from Rossi and Quinn, two players on the same team, it looks like a reach as they seemed to have bypassed a "best player available" approach and drafted for a position of need. How much of a reach, if it is at all, is to be determined.

Quinn seems like a really good player with plenty of upside and no doubt Buffalo could use some scoring on the wing. In my mock I surmised that they'd select Holtz with the eighth-overall ahead of Perfetti. It will be a couple years, at least, before we see how Adams' first draft pick unfolds and both sides of the Quinn pick have legit arguments as to why or why not this was the best pick for the Buffalo Sabres. The initial reaction here that of disbelief enveloped in that sinking feeling. And to repeat, it's not that Quinn is a bad prospect, but when a fan base has been subjected to mismanagement for years, they have every right to feel skeptical when a consensus mid-first round pick gets taken at No. 8 ahead of two consensus top-six picks, one being his own teammate who led the CHL in scoring. Having said that I, like 99.9% of those reading this don't have access to the information the Sabres scouting department has, so this writer defers.

Are the Buffalo Sabres finished this off season?

Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams took care of three restricted free agents with arbitration rights before their respective hearings. The team announced that they re-signed right wing Sam Reinhart and goalie Linus Ullmark to one-year deals on Sunday and earlier today the Sabres announced that winger Victor Olofsson signed a two-year deal with the club. Buffalo still has two more players in center Casey Mittelstadt and defenseman Lawrence Pilut who were tendered qualifying offers but remain unsigned. 

It's an uncertain time for the National Hockey League and it's players as Covid-19 is still shrouds the immediate and near-term future of the league. The NHL has already laid out a scenario where the cap-ceiling will remain at $81.5 million for this season and next with a potential $1 million increase for the 2022-23 season and in doing so has created a salary structure conundrum for players and teams. 

Very few long-term deals have been reached this off season with the Sabres opting for one, two and three-year deals for 14 players leaving only 10 players signed through next season. Their biggest, most stunning signing was former NHL MVP Taylor Hall who signed a 1yr./$8 million deal with the club on October 12. In all Adams and the Sabres re-signed four of their restricted free-agents to one-year deals including Reinhart, who will still be an RFA next season. "I think every player in the times right now would be open to a long-term deal," said the 24 yr. old when asked if a one year deal was right for these uncertain times. "Unfortunately that's not always the case, it's not always available."

Reinhart is on his third contract with Buffalo since signing his entry-level deal in 2014 (with a one-year slide that season) and said on the Zoom call this morning that he's "certainly comfortable playing on short-term deals like I always have."

Indeed. Reinhart has outplayed his contract every season as he's consistently gone from a 23-goal/42-point rookie campaign to a 22-goal/65-point season in 2018-19. Last year his 22 goals and 50 points in 69 games projected out to 26 goals and 59 points for a full 82-game season.

Having Reinhart in the fold means five of Buffalo's top-six forwards are in place and with the two-year contract extension signed by Victor Olofsson this morning, it puts their projected forward group at 12 players without Mittelstadt or promising forward Rasmus Asplund, both of whom are waivers-exempt or 19 yr. old Dylan Cozens who seems to be on the cusp of an NHL spot.

Re-signing defenseman Brandon Montour filled out their defense although it's still weighted to the right as they have five right-handed defensemen and only two lefties signed. Pilut is a left-handed d-man and the Sabres still own his rights, however he's under contract in the KHL and shouldn't be counted on, at least at this point, to be an add on defense. 

Adams filled out his crease by re-signing Linus Ullmark to a one-year deal. Ullmark showed some real promise as a starter last season before going down with an injury. In his only game post-injury/pre-Covid, he defeated the Washington Capitals for the first time in his career with a 3-2 shootout win. The 27 yr. old will be an unrestricted free agent at season's end and he could end up anywhere, including the Pacific Northwest where the Seattle Kraken could take him in the expansion draft. 

It's a situation that isn't likely as he and the organization have been together through every step of his professional career including three years in his native Sweden, an emergency call-up/split season in 2015-16, two full seasons in Rochester after and two full seasons with the Sabres. Ullmark split duties in 2018-19 with Carter Hutton the starter and last season he took over the starters role after Hutton stumbled miserably. 

Ullmark's one-year deal looks like a "prove-it" contract and it's something he just rolls with. The affable net minder shrugged it off saying that he always needs to prove his worth in goal. The experience of being dubbed the starter last season laid the foundation for him manning the crease in the same role this season. As he dealt with the fast pace and accurate shooting these past two seasons with the club, he gained valuable experience which allows him to "read and react in a more natural way because experience build on itself.

"Experience makes a huge difference for a goaltender," he continued, "everything I do every day is helping me take the next step."

He also alluded to the talent Adams brought in that will help him at practice. "Doing the repetitions and movements at full speed against better and better players is certainly helping  me to act in a natural way and not a fabricated way. 

With all but Mittelstadt and Pilut signed, the Sabres have a full roster right now and will head coach Ralph Krueger enters the 2020-21 season with more firepower up top thanks to the signing of Hall. Reinhart praised Krueger for his approach saying this morning, "just the level of honesty and the communication he has is something that every player wants to play under.

"I think that's a big part of why you see these players wanting to come here right now and I truly believe it's because of the kind of person he is and how bad players want to play for him."

Unless Adams and Krueger have something else up their sleeves, the Sabres roster for this season looks complete. The recent signings have the Sabres with a projected cap hit, according to CapFriendly, of just a smidge over $78 million dollars and when looking at that figure we also need to keep in mind that they'll be carrying overages from last season totaling just under $1.5 million which means they really only have $2 million in cap space. And that doesn't include any potential performance bonuses for this season so if they're so inclined to upgrade anywhere, it will need to be a money-in/money-out scenario.

Without any changes, this is what the roster could look like at the start of the 2020-21 NHL season (whenever that is):

Forwards

Taylor Hall - Jack Eichel - Sam Reinhart

Jeff Skinner - Eric Staal - Tage Thompson

Victor Olofsson - Cody Eakin - Kyle Okposo

Zemgus Girgensons - Curtis Lazar - Tobias Reider

With Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Asplund and possibly C.J. Smith vying for roster spots.

Defense

Rasmus Dahlin - Colin Miller

Jake McCabe - Rasmus Ristolianen

Brandon Montour - Henri Jokiharju

With Matt Irwin, rookie Will Borgen and possibly Lawrence Pilut vying for spots on defense

Goaltenders

Linus Ullmark

Carter Hutton

Questions galore as the Sabres ready for the opening of free agency

For a large swath of fans in Sabreland, the hits keep coming as new Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams fashions his team to his liking. It began Tuesday night with the selection of scoring winger Jack Quinn 8th-overall in the 2020 NHL Draft which in and of itself isn't a bad pick by any means, although the methodology as to how they came to that pick at that spot is somewhat quizzical.

As things calmed down near the end of Rounds 2-7 on Wednesday evening it was revealed that Dominik Kahun was not tendered a qualifying offer which allowed him to become an unrestricted free agent today. The 25 yr. old undrafted forward finished up the season with the Sabres after a trade from the Pittsburgh Penguins. Kahun scored two goals and added two assists in six games for Buffalo tallying 68 points (25+42) in 138 total NHL games for three different teams. The reasoning behind the decision on Kahun centered around a possible arbitration award that might not be to Buffalo's liking with Adams calling it a "calculated" move as he tries to give himself roster flexibility heading into free agency. Most looked at this as a gamble at best as it allowed for the possibility that a top-nine scoring forward, which happens to be an area of need, could walk away.

If that wasn't enough, the team announced yesterday that forward Zemgus Girgensons signed a 3yr./$6.6 million contract extension with the club. At seven years Girgensons is the longest tenured Buffalo Sabre but unfortunately that tenure has been marked by on-ice ineptitude that has reached historic levels for this franchise. It's not that he's a bad player as he scored 12 goals in a checking role last season under new head coach Ralph Kruger. What it really amounts to is that the highly likeable Girgensons is associated with seven years of futility and when Sabreland was promised change under Adams, most didn't think that change and him were compatible.

The Sabres head into the start of free agency, which begins at noon today, with an abundance of holes in the roster and, according to CapFriendly, about $30 million in projected cap space. They have 29 players signed to pro contracts, which is 21 under the upper limit and have six restricted free agents under their control--forwards Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson and Casey Mittelstadt, defensemen Brandon Montour and Lawrence Pilut plus goalie Linus Ullmark. 

Tendering Montour was a somewhat curious move. Many thought they'd let him walk as they have an abundance of right-shot defensemen and he was coming off a less than stellar season under Krueger where he played both sides of the ice. The hole they have is on the left side and Pilut may have filled that spot if he was still with the team. Buffalo signed the highly sought after free agent defenseman but he had a difficult 2019-20 season that began with recovery from surgery before splitting time between the big club and the AHL, something he wasn't particularly thrilled with. Although we're not sure whether he has an out-clause in his contract, head scout Jeremiah Crowe said they're still tracking his development in Russia and the qualifying offer shows that the Sabres are still interested in him.

All-in-all those six players could total as much as $20 million towards the cap leaving the team less than $10 million to spend when you account for last year's performance bonus overages. 

Accounting for all six of those players signing, Buffalo heads into today with four spots amongst the forward group that need to be addressed. One of those spots will probably be taken up by Dylan Cozens who just finished an outstanding season in Canadian Junior with 85 points (38+47) in 51 games and had an equally impressive World Junior tournament for Team Canada. There's no in-between for the 19 yr. old center as it's either going back to junior, which he's too good for, or Buffalo. Rasmus Asplund is waivers exempt this season and could be in the mix for a roster spot as well. The 22 yr. old is coming off of two solid pro seasons which included splitting time last year between the Sabres and the Rochester Americans.

Mittelstadt is a bit of a wild card and could be in the mix for Buffalo. The 2017 seventh-overall pick left college after his freshman season and was put in a top-nine role for the Sabres. It was a case of too much too soon and he was sent to Rochester last year after struggling mightily. He is also waivers exempt.

With the AHL season still in question because of the pandemic, it's possible that all three of those forwards could be with the big club. 

How it all fits together is still up in the air and we may have an answer or two sometime this evening as the "free agent frenzy" settles down. The big names usually go off the board early in the day while lesser names filter through as the day goes on. No one expects Buffalo to be in the mix for an Alex Pietrangelo or Taylor Hall but Adams has something on his mind while Sabreland has questions galore as to what this roster will look like come January 1st.

2020 NHL Mock Draft picks 8-10

 (This is the second in a three-part series mocking the first 10 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft.)

The mock so far:

1. NY Rangers, LW Alexis Lafreniere

2. LA Kings, C Quinton Byfield

3 Ottawa Senators, C Tim Stuetzle

4. Detroit Red Wings, C Marco Rossi

5. Ottawa, D Jamie Drysdale 

6. Anaheim Ducks, LW Lucas Raymond

7. NJ Devils, D Jake Sanderson

Simply put the Buffalo Sabres will land an excellent prospect at No. 8 in the 2020 NHL Draft, it's just a matter of which one. With this mock being laid out as above, three more skaters and a blue chip goalie prospect are in the mix for picks 8-10 here and all are all generally thought of as comprising the rest of a third tier. Go to any mock draft and after the top-three go off the board, there's a plethora of combinations that will give the Sabres an opportunity to land an impact player from a list that includes defenseman Jake Sanderson or goalie Iaroslav Askarov. 

Buffalo has plenty of options here, including the possibility of trading down if they are so inclined and if there's a partner that wants to move up at an appropriate price. But, the opinion here is that they'll keep the pick and draft:

8.  Buffalo Sabres--RW, Alexander Holtz

Yes. I know Cole Perfetti is on the board (in this mock) and that he's a center, a position of need for Buffalo. And yes, I'm well aware that he has plenty of skill, however, a couple things jump out when deciding between Perfetti and Holtz for this writer. First off, Perfetti could end up on the wing in the NHL, which won't be a bad thing for him or his team as he can dish and and score and has the hockey sense to make it work at either position. The side of the ice he would more than likely play is left wing and if we look at the Sabres depth chart, their top two left wingers are Jeff Skinner, who is signed for another seven years and Victor Olofsson, who just made the NHL All-Rookie team and probably is a player the Sabres would like to keep around for a while. Holtz, on the other hand is a winger, plain and simple, and he plays the right side where the Sabres depth chart features Sam Reinhart and nothing definitive either directly behind him on the big club or in the pipeline. Holtz is also a sniper with 25-30 goal potential. In two years the Sabres could have Jack Eichel centering Olofsson and Reinhart on the top line with Dylan Cozens centers a multi-30 goal/one-time 40-goal scorer in Skinner on the left and Holtz on the right.

Secondly, Perfetti has wonderful hands and a high hockey IQ that allows him to see the play extremely well and his patience to let the play develop allows him to make great passes. Those are great traits and the fact that he scored 37 goals in consecutive seasons means he's no slouch at putting the puck in the net either. But the latter does not seem to be his forte' and from what I've read and what highlights I've seen, he comes off as a smaller version of Reinhart (who coincidently scored 36 goals his draft year,) especially when you take into account his slightly above average skating. Having said that, it's the opinion here that the Sabres could use a bona fide sniper as opposed to another Reinhart-type.

With parity reigning supreme in the NHL and goaltenders being the great equalizer as they've always been, there's a premium on players who can beat a hot goalie and the more shooters you have, the better. In Buffalo, Eichel has such a great shot that he's one of the few players in the league who has a good chance of beating a goalie one-on-one with nothing but ice between the two. The consensus is that Holtz has the best shot in the draft and he can beat a goalie from anywhere on the ice. Is his shot as good as Eichel's? Probably not, but not that far off. The Sabres need players more players like that. Skinner has a nose for the soft spot and the ability to finish while Olofsson has a wicked shot and as he learns how to create more time and space for himself, he'll be able to add to his formidable production last season (20 goals, with 11 coming on the powerplay.) Adding Holtz into the mix adds yet another player with wicked skills to beat a goalie with his shot.

Holtz plays in the top Swedish league and the size of the international rink gives him space to be able to unleash the fury in his blade. The NHL is different in that a smaller rink does not allow as much time and space as the SHL does, but Holtz has a quick release. It's nasty and is said to be largely undetectable. But does he have an NHL-worthy release? I posed that question to Kris Baker of Sabresprospects.com and he replied, "Hands-down, yes. Not sure there is anyone close to [that] in his draft class."

Holtz is also considered pretty close to NHL ready as he enters his second full season playing against men in the top Swedish league and by the time the NHL gets this season rolling (probably) in January, 2021, the 18 yr. old will have also played additional half-season against men. Come next season, dependent upon his development and the Sabres needs, he could come over and begin his North American pro career with the possibility of jumping into a top-nine spot in Buffalo.

So, yeah, I know that Perfetti has been mocked as high as No. 4 and if he drops to Buffalo at No. 8 picking him isn't a bad thing by any means. However, all things being equal, adding another sniper to the top-six with Eichel and Cozens dishing (or scoring) looks pretty good for the future both near-term and long.

9.  Minnesota Wild--C, Cole Perfetti

This is a scenario that's good for the Wild as their prospect pipeline is devoid of serious talent down the middle. Yes, we know he could eventually show off his high-end skills and equally high hockey IQ from wing but this Minnesota team is aging fast, especially at forward and adding a young player with his skill-level is never a bad thing. He would be a part of a youth movement up front led by "elder statesmen" Kevin Fiala and Ryan Donato (both 24 yrs. old) along with 23 yr. old Joel Eriksson-Ek with Perfetti being placed atop a group of forward prospects featuring Kirill Kaprizov and Matthew Boldy, all of whom may be ready in 2021-22. Word has it that the Wild may end up taking highly touted goalie prospect Iaroslav Askarov here, and that's not a bad idea, but Minnesota really needs to continue to build up that pipeline of skaters and having a probable top-six center/forward fall to them at No. 9 is just too hard to pass up in a situation where draft prospect meets need.

10. Winnipeg Jets--C, Anton Lundell

Even if the Jets moved on from a winger like Patrick Laine, who has averaged 37 goals/82games (albeit declining the past two seasons,) theY still have solid depth on the wing. And although they continue to lose defenders on the blueline, they seem to have a never-ending well of d-men to move right up into an NHL role with 21 yr. old Dylan Samberg already being penciled in as part of Winnipeg's d-corps this coming season. What they could really use is a center behind Mark Scheifele, who was a great pick by the Jets in 2011. Lundell is anything but flashy but the all situations, two-way center in the very least gets the job done, something the teenager has been doing very well the past two seasons while playing against men in Liiga, Finland's top hockey league. He also has a high compete-level and plays a very aware, positional game. At 6'1" 185 lbs. he's got a projectible NHL frame and because he's looked so solid in Finland, he's not very far from reaching the NHL.

2020 NHL Mock Draft picks 4-7

(This is the second in a three-part series mocking the first 10 picks in the 2020 NHL Draft.)

With the top-three picks in the 2020 NHL Draft set (unless something weird happens,) this is where things begin to get interesting. Generally speaking the next tier of prospects stretches down to about pick nine or 10 with an array of players offering up varying skill-sets but whom all grade out close to each other. There's even a blue-chip goalie in the mix who could go top-10. However, it's the opinion here that amongst that group of six or seven players, three rise to the top and create their own sub-group, like a 3a and 3b. I'm also of the opinion that the teams picking 4-6 will select them and although the exact order might not be right as laid out below, that group of three should go off the board well before the Buffalo Sabres pick at No. 8.

Speaking of Buffalo, should one of those three prospects drop to them, they wouldn't hesitate to select said player, even if it was a d-man. As the Sabres enter the 2020 NHL Draft, they'll be looking up at Atlantic Division rivals in the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings who are going to add some impressive prospects to their rebuilds. The NY Rangers will be adding the top player in the draft as well and with playoff spots in the eastern conference already hard to come by, in two to or three years (or sooner in the case of the Rangers) these picks placed atop an already strong prospect pool will make life even more difficult for the Sabres, a team that has a league-long, nine year playoff drought. 

Detroit and Ottawa will now be setting the tone followed by the Anaheim Ducks, who have a definitive need in their prospect pool, and the New Jersey Devils, a team that can go in many directions dependent upon what does or does not fall to them. And with that in mind the mock continues as we begin with the fourth-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft.

4. Detroit Red Wings--C. Marco Rossi

The Wings were a train wreck last season and they need to add a lot of talent so dropping down to fourth-overall after being a historically bad team was a travesty for Detroit. But that's how the lottery unfolded and at No. 4 they'll still have an opportunity to select an impact skater. Even though this is a dark time for the storied Wings, and getting shut out of the top-three was salt in the wound, general manager Steve Yzerman has another Brayden Point-type prospect staring him in the face. Although Yzerman won't be as lucky, or as smart, as he was in Tampa getting Point in the third round of the 2014 NHL Draft, Rossi represents a very similar player who has those offensive gifts and ultra-high compete-level. He had all of those traits on display last season in Canadian Junior as when he led the entire league in scoring with 120 points (39+81) in 56 games, besting Alexis Lafreniere's 112 points (52 games.) The 5'11" 179 lb. Rossi is just too good for junior and the Wings could ease him into the NHL on the wing or slot him in behind Dylan Larkin and let him lead an burgeoning youth movement for Detroit. It's going to be a struggle for that franchise near-term but Yzerman is slowly putting pieces in place and having an eventual one-two punch of Larkin/Rossi down the middle for the foreseeable future is extremely promising.

5. Ottawa Senators--D, Jamie Drysdale

Although the lottery didn't go their way, the Sens will walk away from the 2020 NHL Draft with an impressive forward prospect in Tim Stuetzle (or Quinton Byfield) and follow that up two spots later by plucking the best defenseman in the draft. Ottawa has a very strong prospect pipeline featuring plenty of forwards and some good d-prospects even after the recent 2017 graduation of Thomas Chabot and 21 yr. old Erik Branstrom, who should be with the Senators next season. And they'll add a defenseman in Drysdale who's in the mold of Cale Makar (2017, 4th-overall) and Quinn Hughes (2018,) two modern defensemen who electrify from the blueline. Once again, the Senators could go a couple different ways and they could almost call it a night after drafting one of the top forwards and the top defenseman this year, but Ottawa isn't done by any means as they can add to the pipeline with the 28th-overall pick and four second rounders beginning with pick-33.)

6. Anaheim Ducks--LW, Lucas Raymond

Once again, what teams do in front of you dictate what you will do and the Ducks take the best player available, which isn't such a bad thing here. Anaheim has needs on the blueline and Drysdale would have been an ideal pick but Ottawa threw a wrench into those plans. The Ducks could easily go defense here and no one could blame them for landing a defenseman like Jake Sanderson who some consider to be a better prospect than Drysdale, However, in sticking to the best player available plan, there's no reason to pass on drafting a stud left wing in Raymond. The Ducks have an aging duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Adam Henrique at center with Sam Steel and Trevor Zegras in line to take over when they're ready. At left wing they have Sonny Milano (24 yrs. old) and Jakob Silfverberg (29) and as Anaheim moves forward with their rebuild, adding Raymond makes their near and long-term future even brighter. The gifted Raymond has been playing in Sweden's top hockey league (SHL) as a teenager scoring 10 points in limited ice time while competing against men in his first full season last year. Along with his incredible hands and impressive hockey sense, the smaller (5'10" 183 lbs.) Raymond has an ultra-high compete-level which has already translated into a goal and an assist through two games of the 2020-21 SHL season, which is underway.

7. New Jersey Devils--D, Jake Sanderson

This isn't so much of a reach as it is a choice. There's been a huge swell of draftniks leaning towards New Jersey drafting highly touted goalie Iarsolav Askarov at this spot, and they have a good point. However, the Devils haven't drafted a goalie in the first round since 1999 (27th-overall) and have drafted a goalie every year since 2015 when they plucked Mackenzie Blackwood with the 42nd pick. In addition, back in 2013 the franchise traded the ninth-overall pick for a goalie in Corey Schneider whom they believed to be the heir to Martin Brodeur. Despite some strong numbers from Schneider his first three years, the team failed to move the needle as they missed the playoffs. The now 34 yr. old Schneider began to fade in 2017 (with Keith Kinkaid emerging as "the truth" that season) and has fallen to the point where he was waived last season and is now a $6 million goalie in the AHL with two more years left on his contract. The Devils could have gone with a forward here as well but landing a 6'2" 185 lb. defenseman who plays the position deftly and is an excellent skater as well as one who can move the puck out of his zone and also quarterback the powerplay, seems like a good move for a team that has quantity over quality in blueline depth. New Jersey has a strong group of young forwards beginning to make their mark already and some good defenseman but Sanderson would immediately be placed near the top of their prospect pool. Devils director of amateur scouting Paul Castron was hired by New Jersey in July, 2015 after spending 16 years in the Columbus Blue Jackets scouting department. Defenseman Zach Werenski was mocked anywhere from seventh to 12th overall in the 2015 NHL Draft and the Jackets plucked him with the eighth-overall pick ahead of some pretty good forward prospects. That worked out pretty well for Columbus.